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Publications on Climate Resilience

Browse RAND publications on climate resilience.

2021

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Winter 2020–2021 March 17, 2021

Michelle E. Miro, Krista Romita Grocholski, Jessica Spaccio, Samantha Borisoff, Arthur T. DeGaetano, Jordan R. Fischbach
This seasonal climate summary draws from a variety of scientific resources for the benefit of policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic region, with a focus on the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This edition includes details on winter 2020–2021 weather, regional climate trends, and the upcoming spring season. An interactive tool shows historic snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic from 1981 to 2019.
Water Planning for the Uncertain Future: An Interactive Guide to the Use of Methods for Decisionmaking Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) for U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Water Resources Planning March 8, 2021

David G. Groves, Nidhi Kalra, James Syme, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Chandra Garber
Recent climatic shifts likely will continue to affect water resources management in significant but uncertain ways. This tool provides information about decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods—specifically, Robust Decision Making—through five case studies. These case studies focus on three river basins, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, and Monterrey, Mexico.
Infrastructure Resilience to Navigate Increasingly Uncertain and Complex Conditions in the Anthropocene March 4, 2021

Mikhail Chester, B. Shane Underwood, Braden R. Allenby, Margaret Garcia, Constantine Samaras, Samuel A. Markolf, Kelly Sanders, Benjamin Lee Preston, Thaddeus R. Miller
Resilience theory can help infrastructure managers navigate increasing complexity of the systems and environments in which they operate.
Chesapeake Bay Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST) February 16, 2021

Michelle E. Miro, Krista Romita Grocholski, Debra Knopman, Jordan R. Fischbach, Sara Schwetschenau, Kyle Haak
To support the use of models and tools for climate adaptation planning efforts, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (MARISA) program created the Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST). MIST is an interactive, searchable database of empirical, statistical, and conceptual models of natural and human-made systems relevant to water- and climate-related planning and decisionmaking in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and beyond.
Planificación De Infraestructura Hídrica Para El Futuro Incierto En América Latina: Un Enfoque Eficiente En Costos Y Tiempo Para Tomar Decisiones Robustas De Infraestructura, Con Un Estudio De Caso En Mendoza, Argentina February 11, 2021

David G. Groves, Michelle E. Miro, James Syme, Alejandro U. Becerra-Ornelas, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Valentina Saavedra Gómez, Adrien Vogt-Schilb
El presente estudio demuestra la utilidad del enfoque de Toma de Decisiones Robustas para evaluar la vulnerabilidad y las oportunidades de adaptación de la gestión de los recursos hídricos en Mendoza, Argentina.
Modeling the Uncertainty of Potential Impacts on Robust Stormwater Management from Neighborhood-Scale Impervious Cover Change: A Case Study of Population-Based Scenarios in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania February 4, 2021

Michael T. Wilson, Jordan R. Fischbach, Kyle Siler-Evans, Devin Tierney
This work presents a method for applying high-spatial resolution population-based scenarios to pre-existing stormwater models. We explore the impact of two long-term population growth scenarios for the Pittsburgh region.
Achievements and Needs for the Climate Change Scenario Framework January 6, 2021

Brian C. O'Neill, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Paula A. Harrison, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Kasper Kok, Elmar Kriegler, Benjamin Lee Preston, Keywan Riahi, Jana Sillmann, et al.
Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces.

2020

Exploring the Application of Machine Learning for Downscaling Climate Projections December 22, 2020

Kristin Van Abel, Amanda Back, M. Kathleen Brennan, Oriana S. Chegwidden, Mimi Hughes, Marielle Pinheiro, Cecilia M. Bitz
In this proof-of-concept study, datasets derived from both observations and climate models were used together to train and test statistical methods to downscale.
Approaches to Analyzing the Vulnerability of Community Water Systems to Groundwater Contamination in Los Angeles County December 22, 2020

Michelle E. Miro, Kelsea Best, Nur Kaynar, Rachel Kirpes, Aisha Najera Chesler
This paper details the objectives, process and lessons learned from a workshop-based research project that examined the spatial extent of groundwater contamination in Los Angeles County's groundwater basins.
Research in Mathematics and Public Policy December 17, 2020

Mary Lee, Aisha Najera Chesler
This volume features a variety of research projects at the intersection of mathematics and public policy. The topics included here fall in the areas of cybersecurity and climate change.
Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Fall 2020 December 16, 2020

Michelle E. Miro, Krista Romita Grocholski, Samantha Borisoff, Arthur T. DeGaetano, Jordan R. Fischbach
This seasonal climate summary draws from a variety of scientific resources for the benefit of policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic region, with a focus on the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This edition includes details on fall 2020 weather, regional climate trends, and the upcoming winter season. An interactive tool shows historic tropical cyclone tracks in the Mid-Atlantic from 1980 to 2020.
The Measurement of Disaster Recovery Efficiency Using Data Envelopment Analysis: An Application to Electric Power Restoration December 15, 2020

Priscillia Hunt, Kelly Klima
This paper considers disaster severity to assess efficiency for electric utilities. We provide an application to recent post-hurricane restoration activities across different electric power companies in the states and territories of the United States.
A Model of the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic During a Hurricane in Virginia December 9, 2020

Carter C. Price, Kelly Klima, Adrienne M. Propp, Sean Colbert-Kelly
As of August 24, 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic had resulted in the deaths of approximately 2,500 Virginians. The threat of the pandemic increases the complexity of risk management decisions during the hurricane season. This report examines the implications that a hurricane during the pandemic would have for Virginia.
The Benefits and Costs of Decarbonizing Costa Rica's Economy: Informing the Implementation of Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan Under Uncertainty November 24, 2020

David G. Groves, James Syme, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Carlos Calvo Hernandez, Luis F. Víctor-Gallardo, Guido Godinez-Zamora, Jairo Quirós-Tortós, Felipe De León, Andrea Meza Murillo, Valentina Saavedra Gómez, et al.
Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan sets the ambitious goal for the country to become carbon-neutral by 2050. The authors of this report applied a novel methodology for planning under deep uncertainty to evaluate whether the benefits of the plan exceed its costs. They find that under the vast majority of plausible assumptions about the future, the plan would achieve or nearly achieve its goals and do so at a net economic benefit.
Health Effects of Heat Vulnerability in Rio De Janeiro: A Validation Model for Policy Applications November 10, 2020

Diogo Prosdocimi, Kelly Klima
Here we investigate how to construct and validate a heat vulnerability index given uncertainty ranges in data for the city of Rio de Janeiro. We find that we can validate the heat vulnerability index against excess deaths during heat waves.
How Can Green Infrastructure Help to Manage Rainfall in an Urban Watershed? October 29, 2020

Jordan R. Fischbach, Michael T. Wilson, Craig A. Bond, Ajay K. Kochhar, David Catt, Devin Tierney
This brief describes a proposed system of green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) in Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed, evaluates its potential benefits and costs, and presents recommendations to improve urban stormwater management.
Managing Heavy Rainfall with Green Infrastructure: An Evaluation in Pittsburgh's Negley Run Watershed October 26, 2020

Jordan R. Fischbach, Michael T. Wilson, Craig A. Bond, Ajay K. Kochhar, David Catt, Devin Tierney
Urban stormwater management is a growing challenge in many U.S. cities, and climate change is expected to add to this challenge. RAND researchers apply simulation modeling and economic valuation to estimate the potential benefits and costs of a green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) system in Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed. The authors evaluate a series of GSI investments and make recommendations for how local actors should proceed.
Framework for a Community Health Observing System for the Gulf of Mexico Region: Preparing for Future Disasters October 21, 2020

Paul Sandifer, Landon Knapp, Maureen Lichtveld, Ruth Manley, David Abramson, Rex Caffey, David Cochran, Tracy Collier, Kristie L. Ebi, Lawrence Engel, et al.
We propose the creation of a Gulf of Mexico Community Health Observing System, focused on effects of disasters on the health and well-being of people and their communities.
Fossil Fuel–Fired Power Plant Operations Under a Changing Climate October 13, 2020

Aviva Loew, Paulina Jaramillo, Haibo Zhai, Rahim Ali, Bart Nijssen, Yifan Cheng, Kelly Klima
In this analysis, we used a power plant modeling tool to study how a variety of power plant configurations respond to varying meteorological conditions.
Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Summer 2020 September 17, 2020

Michelle E. Miro, Krista Romita Grocholski, Jessica Spaccio, Samantha Borisoff, Arthur T. DeGaetano, Jordan R. Fischbach
This seasonal climate summary draws from a variety of scientific resources for the benefit of policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic region, with a focus on the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This edition includes details on summer 2020 weather, regional climate trends, and the upcoming fall 2020 season. An interactive tool shows historic and projected changes in warm daily minimum temperatures.
Emerging Infectious Disease, the Household Built Environment Characteristics, and Urban Planning: Evidence on Avian Influenza in Vietnam September 16, 2020

James H. Spencer, Melissa L. Finucane, Jefferson Fox, Sumeet Saksena, Nargis Sultana
This study examines the relationship between the mix of household-scale water supplies, sanitation systems, and construction materials, and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza among poultry in Vietnam.
California Wildfires: Can Insurance Markets Handle the Risk? September 14, 2020

Lloyd Dixon, Flavia Tsang, Gary Fitts
This brief examines the health of the wildfire insurance market in two areas in northern and southern California and the projected wildfire risk in these areas through 2100.
Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Spring 2020 June 19, 2020

Krista Romita Grocholski, Michelle E. Miro, Jessica Spaccio, Samantha Borisoff, Arthur T. DeGaetano, Jordan R. Fischbach
This seasonal climate summary draws from a variety of scientific resources for the benefit of policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders in the Mid-Atlantic region, with a focus on the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This edition includes details on spring 2020 weather, regional climate trends, and the upcoming summer 2020 season. An interactive tool shows historic and projected changes in the timing of spring temperatures.
The Social Structure of Climate Change Research and Practitioner Engagement: Evidence from California May 15, 2020

Zeke Baker, Julia A. Ekstrom, Kelsey D. Meagher, Benjamin Lee Preston, Louise Bedsworth
This study thus examines the perspectives and experiences of researchers regarding practitioner engagement, drawing from an original survey of California's climate research community and supplemental interviews.
Economic Losses from Extreme Weather in the U.S. Gulf Coast Region: Spatially Differential Contributions of Climate Hazard and Socioeconomic Exposure and Vulnerability May 12, 2020

Sujithkumar Surendran Nair, Anthony W. King, Jay Gulledge, Benjamin Lee Preston, Ryan McManamay, Christopher Clark
A novel socio-climate hazard typology (SCT) was developed that integrates locally defined climate hazard and socioeconomic exposure and social vulnerability typologies. We regressed the SCT types and their constituent hazard and socioeconomic components against the cumulative economic loss from extreme weather events in order to attribute economic losses to different interactions among climate hazards, socioeconomic exposure, and vulnerability.

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