Improving Decisions in a Complex and Changing World

Climate change presents public and private sector decisionmakers with a fundamental quandary: how to address a potentially serious, long-term, and deeply uncertain threat. By waiting until new science and unfolding events eliminate much of the uncertainty, it may be too late for decisionmakers to act effectively. If they act without understanding the extent and contours of the problem, they risk making serious miscalculations.

RAND's work on improving decisionmaking under uncertainty has included work with several leading resource management agencies helping them to include the potential impacts of climate change in their long-term plans, including Southern California's Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA), the California Department of Water Resources, the California Energy Commission, Denver Water, and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. RAND's work has also included hurricane protection and coastal restoration planning in Louisiana and flood risk mitigation for New Orleans.

• 

  Developing a Robust Water Strategy for Monterrey, Mexico: Diversification and Adaptation for Coping with Climate, Economic, and Technological Uncertainties 2019

  Edmundo Molina-Perez, David G. Groves, Steven W. Popper, Aldo I. Ramirez, Rodrigo Crespo-Elizondo

  Mexico's third-largest metropolitan area, Monterrey, faces future water security challenges as the region grows. Tecnológico de Monterrey and RAND Corporation researchers used RAND's Robust Decision Making (RDM) framework to organize an analysis of long-term trends and vulnerabilities in water management in Monterrey and to help design a long-term water strategy.

• 

  Developing a Robust Water Strategy for Monterrey, Mexico: Diversification and Adaptation for Coping with Climate, Economic, and Technological Uncertainties — Planning Support Tool 2019

  David G. Groves, Edmundo Molina-Perez

  This interactive tool allows users to explore data and analysis developed by the RAND Corporation and Tecnológico de Monterrey in support of Fondo de Agua Metropolitano de Monterrey's Monterrey Water Plan for 2050.

• 

  Preparing for Future Droughts in Lima, Peru: Enhancing Lima's Drought Management Plan to Meet Future Challenges 2019

  David G. Groves, Laura Bonzanigo, James Syme, Nathan Lee Engle, Ivan Rodriguez Cabanillas

  This study evaluates the performance of Lima, Peru's current drought management plan against future droughts and proposes augmentations, and it recommends ways to ensure that the drought management plan performs will in the uncertain future.

• 

  Resilience of the Eastern African Electricity Sector to Climate Driven Changes in Hydropower Generation 2019

  Vignesh Sridharan, Oliver Broad, Abhishek Shivakumar, Mark Howells, Brent Boehlert, David G. Groves, H-Holger Rogner, Constantinos Taliotis, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strzepek, et al.

  This study developed a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential electricity infrastructure expansion plans to the effects of climate change in Africa.

• 

  Robust Decision Making (RDM) 2019

  Robert J. Lempert

  Decisionmakers often seek predictions about the future to inform policy choices. But a reliance upon analytic methods that require them can prove counter-productive and sometimes dangerous in a fast-changing, complex world.

• 

  Robust Decision Making (RDM): Application to Water Planning and Climate Policy 2019

  David G. Groves, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Evan Bloom, Jordan R. Fischbach

  This chapter presents two case studies that demonstrate how DMDU methods, in particular Robust Decision Making (RDM) (see Chap. 2), can help develop robust long-term strategies.

• 

  Deep Decarbonization as a Risk Management Challenge 2018

  Robert J. Lempert, Horacio R. Trujillo

  As governments, organizations, businesses, and other institutions pursue deep decarbonization with the goal of reducing net human greenhouse gas emissions to zero by the second half of the 21st century, they will find risk management central to the challenge. This Perspective explores three concepts that are particularly important to the implementation of risk management for deep decarbonization -- risk governance, complexity, and robustness.

• 

  Demonstrating the Applicability of a Robust Decision Making (RDM) to Conservation Decision-Making Under Uncertain Future Climate: Pilot Study Using the Northern Pygmy Salamander (Desmognathus Organi) 2017

  Abbie Tingstad, Robert J. Lempert, Matthew Moskwik, Dan L. Warren, Camille Parmesan, Linda O. Mearns, Seth McGinnis, Youngbok Ryu

  This study suggests initial ideas for managing climate uncertainty in conservation planning. Differences with previous RDM applications include focus on finer scale geography and significantly more uncertainty in the system (species response) model.

• Page 2 of 7
• Previous
• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4
• 5
• 6
• 7
• Next