Improving Decisions in a Complex and Changing World

Climate change presents public and private sector decisionmakers with a fundamental quandary: how to address a potentially serious, long-term, and deeply uncertain threat. By waiting until new science and unfolding events eliminate much of the uncertainty, it may be too late for decisionmakers to act effectively. If they act without understanding the extent and contours of the problem, they risk making serious miscalculations.

RAND's work on improving decisionmaking under uncertainty has included work with several leading resource management agencies helping them to include the potential impacts of climate change in their long-term plans, including Southern California's Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA), the California Department of Water Resources, the California Energy Commission, Denver Water, and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. RAND's work has also included hurricane protection and coastal restoration planning in Louisiana and flood risk mitigation for New Orleans.

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  Evaluation of the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan and Recommendations for Improvement 2017

  David G. Groves, Debra Knopman, James Syme, Nidhi Kalra, Zhimin Mao

  RAND evaluated potential effects of uncertain projections of demand and climate change on the ability of the Jinan Municipal Water Resources Bureau to meet its long-term water resources goals. This document describes RAND's approach and results, including development of a mathematical simulation model of the Jinan water supply system and analysis of the system's performance if new strategies and investments were to be implemented.

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  Robust Stormwater Management in the Pittsburgh Region: A Pilot Study 2017

  Jordan R. Fischbach, Kyle Siler-Evans, Devin Tierney, Michael T. Wilson, Lauren M. Cook, Linnea Warren May

  This report provides an independent study of how the stormwater problem in the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania metropolitan region could grow with future climate, land use, or population change, and discusses potential long-term solutions using new analytical approaches developed by RAND. The analysis provides a baseline of scientific information intended to support ongoing regional coordination around stormwater management and water-quality planning.

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  Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty 2016

  Edmundo Molina-Perez

  Explores new methods to the study of international technological change and climate policy providing useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation.

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  Reinvigorating the Scenario Technique to Expand Uncertainty Consideration 2016

  Evelina Trutnevyte, Céline Guivarch, Robert J. Lempert, Neil Strachan

  Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis.

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  Urban Responses to Climate Change: Framework for Decisionmaking and Supporting Indicators 2016

  Debra Knopman, Robert J. Lempert

  This report presents a decisionmaking framework and supporting indicators to guide urban responses to climate change based on principles of risk governance, along with considerations of institutional arrangements and their economic and social context. The framework emphasizes identification of indicators of capacities and processes to implement, adapt, and transform policies, institutions, financing, and other actions to affect change.

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  Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA's National Water Program 2015

  Jordan R. Fischbach, Robert J. Lempert, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Abdul Ahad Tariq, Melissa L. Finucane, Frauke Hoss

  The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and its partners develop implementation plans to meet water quality standards. Climate change and other key drivers may significantly affect these plans, but are often neglected due to uncertainty. This study uses two case studies to demonstrate how Robust Decision Making (RDM) can help to address future uncertainty by identifying vulnerabilities in water quality plans and suggesting appropriate responses.

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  Robust Decision-Making in the Water Sector: A Strategy for Implementing Lima's Long-Term Water Resources Master Plan 2015

  Nidhi Kalra, David G. Groves, Laura Bonzanigo, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Cayo Ramos, Carter Brandon, Ivan Rodriguez Cabanillas

  This study helped SEDAPAL, the water utility serving Lima, Peru, answer the question of long-term water reliability by drawing on state of the art methods for decision making under deep uncertainty.

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  Developing Robust Strategies for Climate Change and Other Risks: A Water Utility Framework 2015

  David G. Groves, Jordan R. Fischbach, Nidhi Kalra, Edmundo Molina-Perez, David Yates, David Purkey, Amanda Fencl, Vishal K. Mehta, Ben Wright, Grantley Pyke

  RAND researchers and collaborators present a comprehensive approach for water utilities to assess climate risks to their systems and evaluate adaptation strategies. The approach, based on Robust Decision Making, is demonstrated through pilot studies with two water utilities: Colorado Springs Utilities and New York City Department of Environmental Protection.

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