Improving Decisions in a Complex and Changing World

Climate change presents public and private sector decisionmakers with a fundamental quandary: how to address a potentially serious, long-term, and deeply uncertain threat. By waiting until new science and unfolding events eliminate much of the uncertainty, it may be too late for decisionmakers to act effectively. If they act without understanding the extent and contours of the problem, they risk making serious miscalculations.

RAND's work on improving decisionmaking under uncertainty has included work with several leading resource management agencies helping them to include the potential impacts of climate change in their long-term plans, including Southern California's Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA), the California Department of Water Resources, the California Energy Commission, Denver Water, and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. RAND's work has also included hurricane protection and coastal restoration planning in Louisiana and flood risk mitigation for New Orleans.

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  Identifying and Planning for Vulnerabilities in the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District’s Water Management Plans 2022

  Michelle E. Miro

  This interactive tool presents the results of a study that evaluated the performance of the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District water plans — specifically, the 2015 Regional Urban Water Management Plan — under a range of future conditions. Researchers assessed whether demand for water outstripped the sustainable use of supply sources, taking into consideration future uncertainty in climate, drought, imported water supply, and water demand.

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  Adaptive Water Management in the Face of Uncertainty: Integrating Machine Learning, Groundwater Modeling and Robust Decision Making 2021

  Michelle E. Miro, David G. Groves, Bob Tincher, James Syme, Stephanie Tanverakul, David Catt

  This study examines climate change and water resources management challenges facing water suppliers in drought-prone regions.

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  Planificación De Infraestructura Hídrica Para El Futuro Incierto En América Latina: Un Enfoque Eficiente En Costos Y Tiempo Para Tomar Decisiones Robustas De Infraestructura, Con Un Estudio De Caso En Mendoza, Argentina 2021

  David G. Groves, Michelle E. Miro, James Syme, Alejandro Uriel Becerra-Ornelas, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Valentina Saavedra Gómez, Adrien Vogt-Schilb

  El presente estudio demuestra la utilidad del enfoque de Toma de Decisiones Robustas para evaluar la vulnerabilidad y las oportunidades de adaptación de la gestión de los recursos hídricos en Mendoza, Argentina.

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  The Benefits and Costs of Decarbonizing Costa Rica's Economy: Informing the Implementation of Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan Under Uncertainty 2020

  David G. Groves, James Syme, Edmundo Molina-Perez, Carlos Calvo Hernandez, Luis F. Víctor-Gallardo, Guido Godinez-Zamora, Jairo Quirós-Tortós, Felipe De León Denegri, Andrea Meza Murillo, Valentina Saavedra Gómez, et al.

  Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan sets the ambitious goal for the country to become carbon-neutral by 2050. The authors of this report applied a novel methodology for planning under deep uncertainty to evaluate whether the benefits of the plan exceed its costs. They find that under the vast majority of plausible assumptions about the future, the plan would achieve or nearly achieve its goals and do so at a net economic benefit.

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  Developing a Robust Water Strategy for Monterrey, Mexico: Diversification and Adaptation for Coping with Climate, Economic, and Technological Uncertainties 2019

  Edmundo Molina-Perez, David G. Groves, Steven W. Popper, Aldo I. Ramirez, Rodrigo Crespo-Elizondo

  Mexico's third-largest metropolitan area, Monterrey, faces future water security challenges as the region grows. Tecnológico de Monterrey and RAND Corporation researchers used RAND's Robust Decision Making (RDM) framework to organize an analysis of long-term trends and vulnerabilities in water management in Monterrey and to help design a long-term water strategy.

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  Developing a Robust Water Strategy for Monterrey, Mexico: Diversification and Adaptation for Coping with Climate, Economic, and Technological Uncertainties — Planning Support Tool 2019

  David G. Groves, Edmundo Molina-Perez

  This interactive tool allows users to explore data and analysis developed by the RAND Corporation and Tecnológico de Monterrey in support of Fondo de Agua Metropolitano de Monterrey's Monterrey Water Plan for 2050.

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  Preparing for Future Droughts in Lima, Peru: Enhancing Lima's Drought Management Plan to Meet Future Challenges 2019

  David G. Groves, Laura Bonzanigo, James Syme, Nathan Lee Engle, Ivan Rodriguez Cabanillas

  This study evaluates the performance of Lima, Peru's current drought management plan against future droughts and proposes augmentations, and it recommends ways to ensure that the drought management plan performs will in the uncertain future.

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  Resilience of the Eastern African Electricity Sector to Climate Driven Changes in Hydropower Generation 2019

  Vignesh Sridharan, Oliver Broad, Abhishek Shivakumar, Mark Howells, Brent Boehlert, David G. Groves, H-Holger Rogner, Constantinos Taliotis, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strzepek, et al.

  This study developed a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential electricity infrastructure expansion plans to the effects of climate change in Africa.

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