Reports and Articles: Markets and Supply

Below are the most recent reports and articles from the RAND Drug Policy Research Center. Please visit our RAND Topics pages for a complete research archive on these and other drug policy-related research topics.

RAND Topic Pages: Drug Markets and Supply

2022

• How Much Illegally Manufactured Fentanyl Could the U.S. Be Consuming? 2022

  Beau Kilmer, Bryce Pardo, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Peter Reuter

  This article provides guidance through two thought experiments that provide a hypothetical upper bound on U.S. consumption of fentanyl.

• Insights Into Mixing Fentanyl and Benzodiazepines From Canadian Drug Seizures 2022

  Bryce Pardo

  In 2020, there were 60,000 overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids in the US, where data lags and limited cross-agency coordination impedes understanding of transitioning illicit drug markets. Better data from Canada can offer some understanding.

• Rapid Changes in Illegally Manufactured Fentanyl Products and Prices in the United States 2022

  Beau Kilmer, Bryce Pardo, Toyya Pujol-Mitchell, Jonathan P. Caulkins

  This analysis used data from drug seizures and undercover purchases to address two questions: To what extent does supply of illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF) vary over time and geography? What has happened to the purity-adjusted price of IMF?

2021

• Current U.S. State Cannabis Sales Limits Allow Large Doses for Use or Diversion 2021

  Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Jason G. Blanchette, Marlene C. Lira, Rosanna Smart, Timothy S. Naimi

  This cross-sectional study examined how transaction sales limits on recreational cannabis translate to tetrahydrocannabinol doses among U.S. states allowing commercial cannabis sales as of January 1, 2020.

• The Evolving Consequences of OxyContin Reformulation on Drug Overdoses 2021

  David Powell, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula

  In this paper, we find that over a longer time horizon, OxyContin reformulation stimulated illicit drug markets to grow and evolve.

• Heroin Use Cannot Be Measured Adequately with a General Population Survey 2021

  Peter Reuter, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Gregory Midgette

  Here we explore the important case of using General Population Surveys to estimate frequent heroin use.

• Illicit Synthetic Opioid Consumption in Asia and the Pacific: Assessing the Risks of a Potential Outbreak 2021

  Jirka Taylor, Bryce Pardo, Shann Hulme, Jennifer Bouey, Victoria A. Greenfield, Sheldon Zhang, Beau Kilmer

  While many illegally manufactured potent synthetic opioids (IMPSO) are produced in Asia, there is little evidence they have entered markets there. We consider the susceptibility to IMPSO's encroachment in markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

• Is the Rise in Illicit Opioids Affecting Labor Supply and Disability Claiming Rates? 2021

  Sujeong Park, David Powell

  This paper examines how the recent transition of the opioid crisis from prescription opioids to more prevalent misuse of illicit opioids, such as heroin and fentanyl, altered labor supply behavior and disability insurance claiming rates.

2020

• Abuses of FDA Regulatory Procedures: The Case of Suboxone 2020

  Rebecca Lee Haffajee, Richard G. Frank

  In the profitable buprenorphine market, pharmaceutical manufacturer Reckitt Benckiser exploited various Food and Drug Administration regulatory procedures to impede entry of generic competitors and maintain elevated prices.

• The Association of State Opioid Misuse Prevention Policies With Patient- and Provider-Related Outcomes: A Scoping Review 2020

  Amanda Mauri, Tarlise N. Townsend, Rebecca Lee Haffajee

  This review reveals a growing literature on the effects of certain state opioid misuse prevention policies, but persistent gaps in evidence on other prevalent state policies remain.