This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty.
RAND Social and Economic Well-Being Publications
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Research from RAND Social and Economic Well-Being.
Decisionmakers often seek predictions about the future to inform policy choices. But a reliance upon analytic methods that require them can prove counter-productive and sometimes dangerous in a fast-changing, complex world.
This chapter seeks to provide a thematic connection between the theory and application chapters that preceded it and the emerging needs of public policy decisionmaking processes.
This chapter presents two case studies that demonstrate how DMDU methods, in particular Robust Decision Making (RDM) (see Chap. 2), can help develop robust long-term strategies.
Some jurisdictions are making great strides with respect to how the criminal justice system deals with individuals with serious mental illness (SMI), but significant challenges and opportunities remain. This report presents the results of an expert workshop convened to identify the needs associated with how individuals with SMI become justice-involved and how to achieve better outcomes before and after they come under correctional control.
California Senate Bill 1953 requires structural and nonstructural upgrades to hospital buildings to enhance resilience to seismic events. This report estimates the costs to hospitals of compliance, focusing on the 2030 deadline. The potential costs have raised significant concerns regarding the financial burden on hospital systems and the opportunity costs associated with hospitals investing large pools of capital to implement seismic upgrades.
Chesapeake Bay Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook: Winter 2018-2019: Seasonal Precipitation Analysis 2019
This web-based tool is part of a quarterly series that draws from a variety of scientific resources to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed policymakers, practitioners, residents, and community leaders on historical and projected future climate trends. An in-depth analysis of changes in seasonal precipitation events over multiple decades is displayed using interactive maps.
Reducing High-Dose Opioid Prescribing: State-Level Morphine Equivalent Daily Dose Policies, 2007-2017 2019
Morphine equivalent daily dose thresholds are a promising policy tool, but there is a lack of consensus about how to use the thresholds and what the threshold level should be.
The Consortium for Resilient Gulf Communities is working to assess and address the public health, social, and economic impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico region. As part of that effort, the group conducted a literature review on the impacts of natural and man-made disasters in the United States and created a corresponding database with the results from that review.
Decision Support Tool for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Levees Investment Strategy: Documentation and Use 2019
The Delta Stewardship Council commissioned the development of a risk modeling framework and decision support tool (DST) to aid in the formulation of a Delta Levees Investment Strategy for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. This report describes the decision support tool and underlying methodology used to evaluate the probability of flooding and various risks in several future scenarios.