Welcome to the Homeland Security and Defense Center
The Homeland Security and Defense Center conducts analysis to prepare and protect communities and critical infrastructure from natural disasters and terrorism. Center projects examine a wide range of risk management problems including coastal and border security, emergency preparedness and response, defense support to civil authorities, transportation security, domestic intelligence programs, technology acquisition, and related topics.
Center clients include the Department of Homeland Security, Department of Defense, the Department of Justice, and other organizations charged with security and disaster preparedness, response and recovery.
The Homeland Security and Defense Center is a joint center of the RAND National Security Research Division and RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment.
Recent Publications
To examine alternative approaches for estimating the benefits of U.S. regulations designed to reduce the risks of terrorist attacks, RAND convened a workshop of experts. Their recommendations address cross-cutting issues such as transparency, as well as opportunities for better modeling and data collection.
Pattern and trend analysis and systematic randomness can be used to position U.S. border security personnel and equipment effectively for interdiction, and in some circumstances the combined approach is competitive with perfect surveillance.
Fears that terrorists may exploit the minimal security screening of trusted traveler programs have dissuaded the adoption of such programs. Such attempts would reduce the maximum potential security benefits of a program, but they would not eliminate those benefits in all circumstances.
Despite al Qaeda's increasing use of the Internet to attempt to radicalize and recruit homegrown terrorists in the United States, the turnout has been tiny and mostly inept.
A new collection of essays by experts from the RAND Corporation examines America in the decade since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, focusing a critical eye on the nation's actions since the attacks and outlining changes in strategy needed to improve efforts against jihadist groups.
New Ideas in Homeland Security: A RAND Occasional Paper Series
Fundamental to the question of border control effectiveness is the proportion of illegal crossings that are prevented through deterrence or apprehension, but estimating these proportions requires knowing the total flow. Four new approaches warrant further attention for purposes of supporting reliable, valid, and timely measures of illicit cross-border flow.
Effective intelligence gathering and a Muslim community unsympathetic to calls to violence have discouraged homegrown jihadist terrorism in the U.S. While there was a spike in domestic terrorism in 2009, the perpetrators were mostly individuals who recruited themselves into the role of terrorists.
While the United States government has historically undertaken strategic reviews and produced numerous strategy documents, these have provided only very general directions for U.S. policymakers. This paper defines an approach to strategic planning and illustrates its application using the example of the critical national security topic of counterterrorism.
Deterrence is a critical feature of cost-effective counterterrorism efforts, but it is not well understood or measured. This simple framework for evaluating the relative value of deterrent measures draws on a growing literature on the role of deterrence in counterterrorism strategy and terrorist decisionmaking.
Being able to understand why terrorist attacks have failed and to predict the likelihood of which will succeed is important for homeland security and counterterrorism planning. Literature on the topic suggests that the threat of any terrorist operation can best be evaluated by examining three key sets of characteristics.
Concerns about the panpoply of possible terrorist attacks are central to the design of security efforts to protect both individual targets and the nation overall. Two questions can be posed to assess the novelty and ease of execution of emerging threats, allowing security planners to both learn from new threats and prioritize.
Featured Research
To examine alternative approaches for estimating the benefits of U.S. regulations designed to reduce the risks of terrorist attacks, RAND convened a workshop of experts. Their recommendations address cross-cutting issues such as transparency, as well as opportunities for better modeling and data collection.
Pattern and trend analysis and systematic randomness can be used to position U.S. border security personnel and equipment effectively for interdiction, and in some circumstances the combined approach is competitive with perfect surveillance.
The TSA's pilot "Pre-check" program that pre-screens travelers who volunteer for it is an overdue advance in security, but it does not address some larger issues surrounding America's airports, writes K. Jack Riley.
Andrew Morral is a Senior Behavioral Scientist at RAND. He formerly directed RAND’s Homeland Security Program and RAND’s Safety and Justice Program. His expertise includes program evaluation, performance measurement, and survey research. His recent publications include studies of counterterrorism deterrence, terrorism risk estimation, and police use of force.
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2012 RAND Corporation.