Afghanistan
Selected Research and Commentary
U.S. Military Prone to Operations Not in Accord with COIN Doctrine — Jun. 4, 2008
Similarities between the Vietnam War and current Middle East operations reveal our military is apt to engage in traditional warfare despite the more nuanced tactics called for by counter-insurgency doctrine.
Full Document
National Security Research Area
Afghanistan: From Chaos and Corruption to Sustainable Success — May 23, 2008
Since the 2002 U.S.-led attacks in Afghanistan, the country has
struggled to stabilize their government and society. RAND co-hosted a
conference attended by experts in academia, government and NGOs from
over 20 nations to discuss the need for a strategic approach to
Afghanistan's attempts at nation-building.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Give Them Sabbaticals — May 7, 2008
In academia and, increasingly, corporate America, sabbaticals are a time-honored way to step aside from the daily grind and intellectually reboot. The U.S. Army should embrace something similar, writes Laura Miller.
CommentaryWorkforce and Workplace Research Area
Afghan Progress Spotty but Hopeful — Apr. 29, 2008
As NATO's role in Afghanistan was debated in Bucharest recently, the bad headlines continued rolling in. And yet, on the ground, there is equally compelling evidence that the efforts of the international community are making a difference, write Obaid Younossi and Peter Dahl Thruelsen.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
America is Making a Difference in Eastern Afghanistan — Apr. 1, 2008
[The United States] has made some progress against the Taliban and other insurgent groups in eastern Afghanistan, and created a window of opportunity to spread this elsewhere, writes Seth G. Jones.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities in State-Building Operations — Mar. 19, 2008
Recent U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that engaging in stability and reconstruction operations is a difficult and lengthy process that requires appropriate resources. A framework for improving U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for state-building efforts could help.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Why We Need to Nail Osama — Feb. 27, 2008
[K]illing or capturing bin Laden remains a vital national and, indeed, international priority. Not only is it important — it is worth devoting significant resources and making major tradeoffs to do so, writes Elbridge Colby.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
Addressing the Security Problems Posed by Ungoverned Territories — Feb. 14, 2008
In testimony presented before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, Angel Rabasa discusses the security problems posed by ungoverned territories, and what could be done to address them.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
International Perspectives on Interagency Reform — Jan. 30, 2008
In testimony presented before the Armed Services Committee, Nora Bensahel discusses the lack of civilian capacity in stability and nation building operations, which has led to an overreliance on military forces.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
The State of the Afghan Insurgency — Dec. 10, 2007
In testimony presented before the Canadian Senate National Security and Defence Committee, Seth G. Jones discusses the increasingly violent insurgency that threatens Afghanistan, the challenges its government faces, and the strategic importance of Afghanistan to the national security of NATO countries.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Improving Army Doctrine and Planning for Stability Operations — Nov. 26, 2007
The U.S. Army has put much effort into revising the approach to planning and implementing Stabilization, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction operations to ensure a common U.S. strategy. However, some elements essential to the success of the process are not yet in place.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Army Resource Gaps Can Be Filled by Building Partner Capabilities — Nov. 6, 2007
Ongoing operations and emerging mission requirements place a heavy burden on U.S. Army resources, resulting in capability gaps that the Army might fill by building appropriate capabilities in allies and partner armies through focused security cooperation.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Women and Human Security: The Case of Post Conflict Afghanistan — Oct. 27, 2007
Improvements to the outcomes of post-conflict nation-building can be made through a stronger emphasis on the broader concept of human security from the earliest phases of the nation-building effort; a focus on establishing governance on the principles of equity and consistent rule of law from the start; and women's earliest inclusion in reconstruction.
Full DocumentRelated Report
WIIS Words web site
The Right Way to Withdraw — Oct. 14, 2007
Had we not invaded Iraq, there are any number of better things we could do to fight terror with the billions the administration plans to spend in Iraq this year. [But w]e're involved too deeply in Iraq and Afghanistan to exit suddenly without fixing our mess, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
RAND Review, Summer 2007: Afghanistan on the Edge — Sep. 12, 2007
The Summer 2007 issue of RAND Review discusses Afghanistan, a world at risk of winning the urban battle, losing the rural war, abandoning the regional solution.
RAND Review Home
Insights on Joint Urban Operations from Afghanistan and Iraq — May 25, 2007
Today's strategic environment implies an obligation to preserve innocent life when possible and to rebuild that which war destroys. Various tools can help better enable military and civilian alike to meet these objectives by more effectively conducting urban combat and restoration.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Afghanistan: Why Canada Should Stay — May 7, 2007
There is a growing movement in Canada to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, illustrated by such newspaper headlines as: "Is it time to go?" and "Canada must leave Afghanistan." Such a move would be a tragic mistake, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
The Counterinsurgency Fight: Think Globally, Lose Locally — Apr. 27, 2007
Confronted with insurgents in some countries and a true global terror network operating in others, some people want to view these opponents as a monolithic force… The belief is also harmful, for four major reasons, write James T. Quinlivan and Bruce R. Nardulli.
Commentary
The Taliban Threat is Not Just America's Burden — Apr. 12, 2007
When President George W. Bush meets European Union leaders for the annual US-EU summit in Washington on April 30, Afghanistan will be high on the agenda. This offers the EU the chance to move beyond rhetoric and take action to show it can be a credible force in the world, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Flagging Ally: Pakistan's Lapses Are Hurting the War on Terror — Mar. 18, 2007
Vice President Dick Cheney's recent blunt warning to Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to crack down on terrorism signals a growing consensus among U.S. policy-makers that Pakistan needs to do more to counter international terrorist groups operating on its soil. But there is still no consensus and few specifics on the most effective strategy, write Seth G. Jones and John Gordon IV.
Commentary
My Enemy's Enemy — Feb. 27, 2007
Somehow, the United States has maneuvered itself into a position where most Shiite and most Sunni, most Arabs and most Persians alike seem to regard America as their enemy, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
America's Long Wars — Feb. 01, 2007
It is clear that U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, along with his leadership team in the Pentagon, will devote the preponderance of their time contending with the "long war" against radical Islam... But the "long war" is not so much a traditional conflict with discrete battles composing continuous, identifiable "campaigns. It is a long-term strategic challenge that will demand all elements of U.S. statecraft, write Andrew R. Hoehn and David A. Shlapak.
Commentary
Afghanistan's Local Insurgency — Jan. 31, 2007
The rising violence and the near certainty of a Taliban spring offensive have triggered calls for an increase in U.S. military forces in Afghanistan. But a military strategy is not likely to succeed, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Ending Afghanistan's Civil War — Jan. 30, 2007
In testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Ambassador James Dobbins discusses the resurgence of civil war in Afghanistan, and ways to bring peace to the country.
Testimony
Central Asia's Other 'Turkmenbashis' — Jan. 15, 2007
A dictator's sudden death almost always triggers political instability. But it is doubly dangerous when it poses a risk of regionwide destabilization and a scramble for influence among the world's greatest military powers — the United States, Russia and China, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
Commentary
Europe's Afghan Test — Jan. 02, 2007
Within the limits of European politics and attitudes, allies can serve their own interests as well as America's by radically stepping up their collective commitment to Afghanistan. Here, there is no ambiguity and there should be no ambivalence, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Pakistan's Tribal Deals Aren't Working — Dec. 28, 2006
In an effort to deal with the growing terrorist and insurgent sanctuary in Pakistan, government officials have negotiated peace deals with local tribal leaders who have agreed to crack down on militants. But this strategy, which has been supported by some in the United States and Europe, is likely to failn, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Afghanistan Needs Help — Dec. 19, 2006
The people of Afghanistan received good news recently when the leaders of the 26 nations in NATO issued a joint statement at their summit meeting that said: "Contributing to peace and stability in Afghanistan is NATO's key priority." Unfortunately, those words alone won't solve the myriad problems of Afghanistan. They must be followed by action, writes Obaid Younossi.
Commentary
Grand Strategy for the Middle East — Nov. 19, 2006
Debate in the United States about the war in Iraq is seemingly about strategy but is really about tactics, as America struggles to control the damage without changing its basic objectives and policies in the Middle East. A strategic reassessment is needed to find a way to deal not just with Iraq, but with the other interrelated problems in the region, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
The EU Should Put Up or Shut Up in Afghanistan — Nov. 18, 2006
Time is running out for success in Afghanistan. The NATO summit in Riga of November 28-29 may be the last chance to pull that country back from the brink. NATO assumed responsibility for providing security for all of Afghanistan in October. While about 8,000 of the 20,000 United States troops in Afghanistan operate independently, the rest have joined the most ambitious military venture in NATO's history, the International Security Assistance Force, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Terror War Uncertainties — Oct. 06, 2006
The only certainty over the next five years is that events now unpredictable will profoundly affect the trajectory of the Global War on Terror.
Nonetheless, we can attempt to look beyond the headlines and discern some long-range trends that can give us some idea about what the state of this unconventional war will be on Sept. 11, 2011, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
State of Terrorism Address: What Would Osama Bin Laden Say to Jihadists Five Years Later? — Sep. 11, 2006
Osama Bin Laden has issued many audio- and videotapes to spread his message. But what might he tell his most loyal followers about the state of the global war against the infidels five years after 9/11?, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Safer, But Not Safe — Sep. 11, 2006
Five years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the global jihadist enterprise continues to pose the most immediate threat to U.S. national security. Its destruction must remain America's primary objective, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Protecting U.S. Interests In the Middle East — July 19, 2006
With fighting raging in Gaza, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan, American interests are under immediate threat across much of the greater Middle East. Each day requires U.S. officials to make new tactical decisions to deal with rapidly changing developments, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Islam and the West: Searching for Common Ground: The Terrorist Threat and the Counter-Terrorism Effort — Jul. 18, 2006
In testimony presented to the Committee on Foreign Relations, Bruce Hoffman addresses the terrorist threat and the counter-terrorism effort, focusing on how the U.S. can ensure that its assessments and analyses of the threat are based on sound, empirical judgment and that its counterterrorism policy is sufficiently comprehensive, well crafted and effectively directed.
Testimony
How to Curb Rising Suicide Terrorism in Afghanistan — July 18, 2006
Suicide attacks have become a major factor in the current resurgence of violence in Afghanistan, indicating Al Qaeda is staging a comeback. So far this year, there have been 32 suicide terrorist attacks, more than the total committed in the entire history of the country, write Hekmat Karzai and Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Asian Countries Divided About U.S. Security Intentions in Central Asia — Jun. 30, 2006
Several Asian states are key to Central Asia's security and economic environment, and their actions will also affect U.S. interests in the region. Although some of these states fear the U.S. military presence in the region, others appreciate its strong role in promoting stability.
Full DocumentResearch Brief
America Needs to Pick Its Fights Carefully — May 2, 2006
If not handled carefully, the recently renamed “long war” on global terror could turn into an undifferentiated campaign against Muslim insurgencies, wherever they may emerge. This would be a great mistake. Just because Al Qaeda attaches itself to one Muslim cause or another should not necessarily make those insurgents America’s enemies, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Nation-Building Efforts Hampered By Failures to Address Health Problems — Apr. 19, 2006
The United States missed opportunities to help win the support of the public in Iraq and Afghanistan by failing to make health a bigger focus of reconstruction efforts after U.S.-led invasions of the nations.
Full DocumentNews Release
Combating Al Qaeda and the Militant Islamic Threat — Feb. 16, 2006
[T]he attention of the U.S. military and intelligence community is directed almost uniformly towards hunting down militant leaders or protecting U.S. forces—not toward understanding the enemy we now face. This is a monumental failing not only because decapitation strategies have rarely worked in countering mass mobilization terrorist or insurgent campaigns, but also because al Qaeda's ability to continue this struggle is ineluctably predicated on its capacity to attract new recruits and replenish its resources.
Testimony
Just Starting: The War Against Terror — Jan. 25, 2006
The central message of Osama bin Laden's latest audiotape heard 'round the world is that al-Qaida lives, he is in command, the jihadists are winning and victory is inevitable — the exact opposite of the message President George W. Bush delivers in speeches on the war on terrorism, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Air Power Vital to the Conduct of Operation Enduring Freedom — Jan. 6, 2006
The U.S. conducted Operation Enduring Freedom from land and sea bases far from the war zone in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda's terrorist infrastructure and the Taliban regime were destroyed largely through the use of networked ground-aided air attacks that are now the cutting edge of American combat style.
Full DocumentResearch Brief
NATO's Role in Nation-building — Dec. 8, 2005
Nation-building has been a growth industry since the end of the Cold War. The United Nations, NATO, the United States and more recently the European Union have all become engaged in missions that employ armed force in post-conflict environments with the objective of supporting a political transformation, that is to say democratisation. Not every recent military expedition fits this description, but nation-building, peace-building or stabilisation operations, depending on one's preferred terminology, have become the dominant paradigm for the use of armed force in the post-Cold War world, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Misjudging The Jihad: Briefing Osama on All the War's Wins and Losses — Nov. 13, 2005
We see the televised briefings in Washington, but what about the briefings on the other side of on the campaign against terror, perhaps in the mountains of Pakistan? An aide briefing Osama bin Laden on the al Qaeda balance sheet today would have to admit to plenty of bad news, write Brian Michael Jenkins and Gregory F. Treverton.
Commentary
Terror in Historical Context — Oct. 28, 2005
President George W. Bush asserts that fighting in Iraq is a necessary correction to the responses by the Carter, Reagan, and Clinton administrations to earlier terrorist challenges. "To leave Iraq now," the president argues, "would be to repeat the costly mistakes of the past that led to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 … the terrorists concluded that we lacked the courage and character to defend ourselves, and so they attacked us." However, this "mistakes of the past" thesis ignores the historical context and differing circumstances of previous decisions, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
NATO Peacekeepers Need a Partner — Sep. 30, 2005
With its recent elections, Afghanistan has come to the end of the road laid out for it at the 2001 Bonn Conference. The country will now have a popularly elected president and Parliament. It remains, however, desperately poor, dependent on illegal drug production and challenged by a fundamentalist insurgency operating out of sanctuaries in Pakistan. The country needs a new road map, and continued international support, as it embarks upon the next stage of its journey, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
The Danger Next Door — Sep. 23, 2005
The Sept. 18 elections for Parliament and provincial councils were an important step in Afghanistan's march toward democracy. But now that progress is threatened by an increasingly violent insurgency that uses Pakistan as a staging area for attacks. Unless the United States and Pakistan take steps to eliminate this sanctuary, the security situation in Afghanistan will continue to deteriorate and undermine the country's fragile democracy, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Four Years After 9/11, War on Terror Slogs On — Sep. 11, 2005
Four years after 9/11, where are we in the global war on terror? The question itself reflects our typically American desire to keep score, measure progress. Progress in World War II provided visible mileposts – the invasion of North Africa, the march through Italy, the return to the Philippines, the landing at Normandy, the liberation of Paris, the fall of Berlin, VE day, VJ day – a bloodier contest but we knew where we were going, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Why America Shouldn't Sever Uzbekistan Ties — Sep. 6, 2005
Uzbekistan's decision to end U.S. access to an air base in the Central Asian country might appear to end a marriage of convenience born of 9/11. But cutting all ties between the two nations would be a mistake, writes Olga Oliker.
Commentary
Exiting Iraq — Aug. 29, 2005
During a visit to Iraq in April, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said: "We don't really have an exit strategy. We have a victory strategy. We are here for a mission to set the country on the path of democracy, freedom and representative government." The successful Iraqi election last January was supposed to demonstrate that Iraq is on the correct path. Now the adoption of a constitution and the election of a post-transition government are supposed to move Iraq further on the path. But where does the path lead afterwards?, write Lowell H. Schwartz and Jeff Michaels.
Commentary
The Lessons of London — Jul. 17, 2005
[W]hile we have damaged the jihadists' network, we have not dented their determination. Al-Qaeda today is an ideology that transcends the original organization to inspire many little al-Qaedas. Comprising old veterans and new volunteers, the jihadists communicate on a thousand more Web sites, train at secret locations, continue to plan and prepare attacks, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Lessons to Be Learned from Conflicts in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan — Jun. 28, 2005
Iraq's elections gave Shia and Kurdish leaders democratic legitimacy, but they further marginalized Sunnis. As a result, the still rising tide of violence in Iraq has taken on an increasingly sectarian character. The Shia and Kurdish communities can prevail in this conflict as long as they stick together. Between them, they represent three-quarters of Iraq's population. They also have the support of both the United States and Iran, but the Sunni minority is also receiving support from neighboring Sunni societies, like Saudi Arabia and Syria. This sort of externally sponsored competition is a formula for long, bloody civil war, says James Dobbins.
Commentary
Buy Security Through Aid — May 21, 2005
A decade ago, corruption was a taboo subject in economic development. Although studies showed that corruption did not increase growth but only greased greedy palms, the subject was still too hot, too political and too sovereign. Today, the issue of security is where corruption was a decade ago — development's awkward stepchild, too large to ignore but too domestic and too sovereign to be discussed explicitly, write Gregory F. Treverton and Robert Klitgaard.
Commentary
The Men Who Pursued Paradise in Destruction
— May 15, 2005
We are inclined to see terrorists as fiends, wild-eyed expressions of evil, diabolical but two-dimensional figures whose faces briefly flash on news broadcasts or populate Hollywood movies. To portray them as human beings runs risks. Any attempt to understand terrorists' motivations could be seen as an excuse for their actions, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Opium and Democracy — May 4, 2005
When Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stood beside Afghan President Hamid Karzai, she made an enlightened statement about cutting Afghanistan's opium production, saying: “It is a problem that took a while to develop, and it will take time to end the problem,” write Peter Reuter and Victoria Greenfield.
Commentary
Bin Laden and His Special Effects
— Feb. 4, 2005
Forced out of his sanctuary in Afghanistan and without a standing army at his command, the world's most hunted man must spend his life in hardship and hiding. But despite his lack of military power, Osama bin Laden remains a deadly threat because he has the awesome power of inspiring words and ideas at his command. Delivering a message of endless holy war against a demonized enemy, he remains a frequent and fervent communicator with the power to motivate his followers to willingly sacrifice their lives to wage holy war, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Social Studies: 21st Century Tribes
— Dec. 12, 2004
In Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States is fighting virulent tribalism as much as Islamic fundamentalism. Salafi and Wahhabi teachings calling for jihad against infidels, fatwas from clerics justifying the murder of noncombatants and ultimatums from Sunni insurgents who behead captives all are expressions of extreme tribalism more than Islam,
writes David Ronfeldt.
Commentary
Lessons Learned from Relief Efforts in Afghanistan — Nov. 2, 2004
Humanitarian efforts during the recent military conflict in Afghanistan were successful—but serious coordination problems existed. A new report identifies ways to improve future relief efforts.
Full Document
International Affairs Research Area
Afghanistan Without Doctors —Aug.
11, 2004
Doctors without Borders, known for its intrepid presence in the world’s worst trouble spots, has pulled out of Afghanistan. This is a blow to the Afghans, whose needs in this area are enormous. But more fundamentally, the decision was made for the wrong reasons, on a premise about humanitarian aid that no longer holds up to political reality, writes
Cheryl Benard.
Commentary
Understanding Middle Eastern Youth — Jul. 19, 2004
What forces shape attitudes and aspirations of young people in the Middle East? The RAND Initiative for Middle Eastern Youth aims to answer this question and help future generations achieve better lives.
Read More
International Affairs Research Area
Countering Radical Islam Through Understanding
The U.S. can counter the destabilizing forces of radical Islam by better understanding the spectrum of Muslim views—views that separates allies from adversaries.
Full Document News Release (March 2004)
Sesame Street Comes to Afghanistan
An adapted version of the TV program Sesame Street will be shown in schools and elsewhere in Afghanistan as part of an educational outreach effort prepared by Sesame Workshop and RAND.
News Release Read More (April 2004)
Democracy and Islam in the New Constitution of Afghanistan
This document reports on a conference held to identify ways in which the new constitution of Afghanistan could help put the country on the path to a strong, stable democracy characterized by good governance and rule of law.
Full Document (2003)
America's Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to Iraq
This report examines lessons from seven case studies—Germany, Japan, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan—then applies these to the Iraq case. The results suggest that nation-building will be difficult but possible for the U.S.
Full Document (2003)
Democracy and Islam in the New Constitution of Afghanistan
A new constitution of Afghanistan was the topic of a recent conference. A report, drawing from this conference, offers ideas for those involved in drafting the constitution, particularly about the treatment of Islam.
Conference Proceedings (2003)
Internet Use in Afghanistan and Developing Countries in the Middle East
Proposes a two-step approach to testing the feasibility of enhanced Internet access in Afghanistan and developing countries in the Middle East.
Full Document (2002)
Afghanistan's Faltering Reconstruction
Attacks in Kabul and Kandahar are evidence that Afghan reconstruction is faltering for lack of both security and money, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary (September 12, 2002)
Afghanistan: The Consolidation of a Rogue State
A prescient article that urged the United States to confront the Taliban and prevent it from consolidating power, while warning of the dangers of continuing to neglect Afghanistan.
The Washington Quarterly, PDF (Winter 2002)
Further Reading:
Bibliographies: Asia (1980-present) and studies on the former Soviet Union.
Hot Topic: Middle East Security and Stability
Top
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2008 RAND Corporation. 