China
Selected Research, Commentary and Congressional Testimony
Our Misplaced Yuan Worries — Dec. 15, 2007
To reduce the bilateral imbalances between China and the U.S. requires more carefully crafted policies than revaluation of the yuan, else the results could be perverse, writes Charles Wolf Jr.
Commentary
International Affairs Research Area
A Few Low Notes Won't Spoil China-US Harmony — Aug. 2, 2007
US-China relations, and the respective national interests which underlie them, are generally harmonious. However, this is occasionally jarred by sharp discord, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
U.S., European Strategy Must Adjust to Confront Military Power in China — Jul. 29, 2007
Ever since China test-fired ballistic missiles… in 1995 and 1996, many analysts have sounded the alarm about the threat of China's military power. This has been a false alarm until now, but within a decade China could supplant America as the dominant military power in East Asia, writes Roger Cliff.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Cost of Unleashing China's Currency — Jul. 13, 2007
Congressional critics say China's undervalued currency is the root of the problem. While China's currency may well be undervalued, the fundamental causes of the job losses and the trade deficit actually lie elsewhere, write William H. Overholt and Pieter Bottelier.
Commentary
Paradoxes: Liberal…Conservative…Go Figure — Mar. 27, 2007
One of the few matters that Democrats and Republicans apparently agree on these days is the use of “liberal” and “conservative” as shorthand for the political left and right, respectively. Their agreement on these labels is ironic, because the economic policies associated with liberals and conservatives in America are the mirror images of what they stand for in the rest of the world, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
C. Asia's Great Game — Mar. 05, 2007
Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov is not exactly a household name around the world. But the recent election of the former deputy prime minister and health minister as president of Turkmenistan could have a profound influence on events far from the remote Central Asian natio, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
Commentary
China's Attempts at Economic Coercion of Taiwan Have Only Limited Success — Feb. 15, 2007
China has had only limited success in using economic pressure to win political concessions from Taiwan, although Taiwan's increasing ties with China leave it vulnerable to economic coercion.
Full Document
News Release
Which Economy Will Run Into Trouble First: The US or China? — Feb. 08, 2007
Both the US and Chinese economies are highly diversified, highly globalized, competitive economies run by institutions and leaders who are usually capable of reacting proactively to potential problem. The key risk is not that one would collapse, but that both would simultaneously get into trouble, writes William H. Overholt.
Commentary
Central Asia's Other 'Turkmenbashis' — Jan. 15, 2007
A dictator's sudden death almost always triggers political instability. But it is doubly dangerous when it poses a risk of regionwide destabilization and a scramble for influence among the world's greatest military powers — the United States, Russia and China, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
Commentary
Globalization's Unequal Discontents — Dec. 21, 2006
Protectionists who characterize free trade as almost treasonous are on a crusade to build new barriers around America in an effort to keep jobs in and imports out, writes William Overholt.
Commentary
N Korea Policy Options — Nov. 28, 2006
In Iraq, regime change — even when it involved the fall of a dictator whom President George W. Bush called a member of the "axis of evil" — created many unexpected and costly problems. The same thing could happen if regime change comes to North Korea, writes Bruce Bennett.
Commentary
Tokyo's Leverage Over Pyongyang — Nov. 21, 2006
North Korea dominated the agenda at last week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Hanoi, as new rounds of negotiations with Pyongyang loomed. While all 21 member-states vowed to press Pyongyang to disarm, one nation may hold the key to a successful outcome: Japan, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
What's to Stop Kim Now? — Oct. 17, 2006
International efforts to pressure North Korea to drop its nuclear weapons program could increase the chances of one of America's worst nightmares coming true — North Korean sales of nuclear weapons and technology to Iran, terrorist groups and other nations, writes Bruce Bennett.
Commentary
On the Edge — Oct. 15, 2006
"[North Korea]'s claim that it tested an atomic weapon was the boom heard round the world, and it could set off a chain reaction that will fundamentally change the nature of security in Northeast Asia and the world," writes Bruce Bennett in a commentary distributed by the Washington Times.
Commentary
Asian Countries Divided About U.S. Security Intentions in Central Asia — Jun. 30, 2006
Several Asian states are key to Central Asia's security and economic environment, and their actions will also affect U.S. interests in the region. Although some of these states fear the U.S. military presence in the region, others appreciate its strong role in promoting stability.
Full DocumentResearch Brief
How Will China Respond to U.S. Military Transformation? — May 23, 2006
China's response to U.S. national strategy and military transformation will be shaped by Beijing's key national security goals and the political and economic context within which these goals are pursued, especially in regards to Taiwan.
Full Document
Roiling the Waters in the Taiwan Strait — Mar. 21, 2006
Although relations between the United States and China appear to be stable today, a new crisis may be looming in the Taiwan Strait. In late February, Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, announced that he was ending the operation of a government committee nominally intended to oversee Taiwan's eventual unification with the mainland. Although the committee had not met since Chen became president in 2000, his action nonetheless rang alarm bells in Beijing, write Roger Cliff and Toy Reid.
Commentary
Advances Underway in China's Defense Industries — Mar. 16, 2006
If the United States is to keep its qualitative military advantage over China … we will need to continue to develop and field systems that are significantly more advanced than the types currently in our inventory and that China is now in the process of developing and fielding, said Roger Cliff in testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Congressional Testimony
A Far too Costly Pentagon — Feb. 27, 2006
The Pentagon's new Quadrennial Defense Review is right to give top priority to non-traditional national security demands: countering the spreading Islamist-terrorist insurgency and stabilizing fragile states that could succumb to this insurgency. The threat of violent extremism demands a de-emphasis of dangers from hostile nations, none of which would dare to challenge America militarily, write David C. Gompert and James Dobbins.
Commentary
Challenges to China's Internal Security Strategy — Feb. 3, 2006
Murray Scot Tanner gave testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission highlighting the Chinese government's evolving strategy to contain and manage the rising levels of protest and unrest in Chinese society.
Congressional Testimony
We the People (of China)... — Feb. 2, 2006
Recent reported police killings of protestors in the southeast Chinese villages of Panlong and Dongzhou raise serious questions about China's struggle for a more sophisticated strategy to contain mounting unrest. For now, mass protests don't threaten the government's survival, but the specter of chronic unrest is haunting Beijing's leaders and affecting vital policy initiatives, including relations with the U.S., writes Murray Scot Tanner.
Commentary
Let's Avoid Another Trans-Atlantic Feud — Jan. 13, 2006
The European Union's recent launch of the first of 30 satellites in its multibillion-dollar Galileo global navigation system was hailed across the Continent as a giant step in breaking the U.S monopoly of space-based networks. But China's participation in the project raises important security issues that need to be addressed to prevent a new feud between America and Europe, write Seth G. Jones and F. Stephen Larrabee.
Commentary
China's Defense Industry Emerging from Its Troubled Past — Dec. 29, 2005
Despite 25 years of weakness, China's defense industry is showing signs of improvement. Advances in the missile, shipbuilding, aviation, and information technology sectors could enhance China's military position, with short-term implications for Taiwan and long-term implications throughout Asia.
Full DocumentResearch Brief
Puts & Calls: Concerns Over U.S.-China Trade Deficit Are Overblown — Oct. 30, 2005
To hear some critics of U.S. trade with China tell it, China and its army of low-wage workers laboring long hours are like a giant vacuum cleaner sucking up American jobs, American factories, American dollars and ultimately American prosperity and transplanting them across the Pacific. But claims that U.S.-China trade is benefiting China at American expense don't hold up on close examination, writes Julia F. Lowell.
Commentary
China's Military Modernization and the Cross-Strait Balance — Sep. 15, 2005
China's military is focused on finding ways to defeat the United States in the event of a conflict between the two countries, the most likely such contingency being a conflict over Taiwan. In considering ways to enhance U.S. force posture in the Pacific, we should consider not just the capabilities that China is developing but also the specific ways in which it might use those capabilities against the United States, according to Roger Cliff, testifying before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Congressional Testimony
China: Bachelor Bomb — Sep. 14, 2005
In a trend fraught with troubling political and social implications, China will soon find itself with a marriage-age population remarkably out of balance, with about 23 million more young men than women available for them to marry in this decade and the next — what demographers term a "marriage squeeze," write Dudley L. Poston Jr. and Peter A. Morrison.
Commentary
Beware Beijing's Military Ambitions — Aug. 7, 2005
Since Sept. 11, 2001, the United States has downplayed concerns about China's military, focusing instead on cooperation with Beijing to counter terrorism, pressure North Korea on its nuclear weapons program and resolve other immediate issues. But over the long term, Washington can't ignore China's emergence as a military power that could face the United States in a confrontation, most likely over the explosive issue of Taiwan, writes Roger Cliff.
Commentary
A Sensible Solution To Beijing's Yuan Dilemma — May 20, 2005
China's currency valuation is eliciting ever growing criticism and resentment among some policymakers in the United States, and this in turn is fueling controversy and confusion among policymakers in China. But there is a way of resolving the currency dilemma — whether to stand pat or to revalue — that would be sensible and beneficial to China, the U.S., and the world economy, writes Charles Wolf.
Commentary
China and Globalization — May 19, 2005
China has transformed itself from the world's greatest opponent of globalization into a committed advocate of globalization—a turn that has been one of the greatest foreign policy triumphs of American history. Our successes, however, provide no assurance that China will always be friendly. But if we welcome China's prosperity, we maximize the chances of an auspicious outcome. If we reject it, we ensure the worst outcome, according to Bill Overholt recently testifying before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Congressional Testimony
Beijing's Dangerous Game — May 12, 2005
By permitting anti-Japanese protests in Beijing in recent weeks, China's leaders are playing a very risky and disturbing game, the dangers of which are now apparent, writes Murray Scot Tanner.
Commentary
Chinese Government Responses to Rising Social Unrest — Apr. 14, 2005
In the past five years officials of China’s public security system have confirmed what foreign observers have sensed for some time: social protest has risen dramatically over the past decade, and is now a daily phenomenon in China’s political system, says Murray Scot Tanner in his testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Congressional Testimony
Experts Discuss China's Role as Rising Regional Power — Mar. 14, 2005
China's economic and military power in Asia is growing, raising questions about its role in regional security issues. A conference jointly sponsored by RAND and the French Institute of International Relations examined options for U.S.-European cooperation on China policy.
Full Document
International Affairs Research Area
Heading Off European Arms to China — Mar. 2, 2005
On a trip to mend fences with Europe, President Bush highlighted U.S.-European friction when he said at a news conference Feb. 22 in Brussels that there was “deep concern” in the United States about the European Union's plans to lift its arms embargo against China. While the EU's plans have not attracted widespread attention in the United States, the issue has enormous consequences for the future of transatlantic relations, write Evan S. Medeiros and Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Center Addresses Critical Issues Facing Asia — Feb. 24, 2005
The RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy provides analytic expertise on critical issues facing the Asia-Pacific region. These include relations between North and South Korea, Afghanistan reconstruction, nuclear proliferation in India and Pakistan, and U.S.-China economic policy.
Read More
International Affairs Research Area
China's Stake in a Nonnuclear North Korea — Feb. 17, 2005
North Korea's declaration that it has nuclear weapons is bad news not just for the United States, but for China. Already sharing borders with nuclear-armed Russia, India, and Pakistan, the last thing China wants is an expansion of Asia's nuclear neighborhood, writes Nina Hachigian.
Commentary
A Future for U.S.-China Space Cooperation? — Dec. 13, 2004
Human space flight was born as a “space race” between the United States and the Soviet Union, carried out on one of the bloodless battlefields of the Cold War. But while humans continue to travel into space, the nature of international space activities has gradually changed from competition to cooperation. Once bitter rivals, America and Russia now share the costs and risks of space flight, write John C. Baker and Kevin Poll.
Commentary
A Tale of Two Economies — Nov. 10, 2004
Despite their huge differences, the Chinese and American economies share one common characteristic that is both a short-run problem and a long-run opportunity: rising labor productivity, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
China Shows Advantages of Accessible Economy — Sep. 27, 2004
Why has China's economy continued to grow fast during the past 20 years, even when the world economy cools down?, writes William H. Overholt.
Commentary
Trade Between Taiwan and China Increasing — Jul. 26, 2004
Taiwan and China are trading money and technology more than ever before. This report examines this trend and what it means for the global semiconductor industry and U.S. policymakers.
Read More
Science and Technology Research Area
China's Rising Unemployment Challenge — Jul. 7, 2004
Among the major economic problems confronting China, two are particularly difficult. The problem that has lately received most attention and concern is actually the less difficult of the two. The second is not only more difficult, but also has been largely ignored in public discussion, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
What's in a Motto? — Jun. 24, 2004
The mainland recently conducted a quiet but important policy debate over the country's strategic direction in global affairs. In newspapers, magazines and internal papers, mainland officials and scholars argued whether the concept of "China's peaceful rise" should be adopted as the motto for its rapidly expanding role in international politics. This debate is a reminder of China's effort to shape external perceptions, as its power and influence expand, writes Evan Medeiros.
Commentary
China's Economic and Political Impact on South Asia — Dec. 4, 2003
Testimony presented to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: "After decades of tensions, India and China are moving closer in a shift that is affecting the strategic realities of Asia. A recent visit to Beijing by Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee has produced a promising set of agreements to help settle the long-standing border dispute, increase trade, and decrease mutual distrust. A critical factor in drawing the two countries together has been their growing economies. However, while the probability of military conflict is increasingly low, bilateral economic competition could be the source of possible friction in the relationship," says Dr. Rollie Lal.
Congressional Testimony
The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture — 2001
Asia has experienced a period of relative peace and economic growth. However, it is beset by a variety of problems that could imperil the stability it has long enjoyed. U.S. strategy should focus on inhibiting the growth of rivalries and preventing the rise of instability in the region.
Full Document Research Brief
Top
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-Friday, 09-May-2008 19:19:59 PDT RAND Corporation. 