North Korea
Selected Research, Commentary and Testimony
Lessons from Six Decades of Research on Deterrence, From Cold War to Long War — Oct. 30, 2008
The United States' 2006 reversal of its 2002 proclamation that deterrence was irrelevant to most future national security strategies is bolstered by research which shows that deterrence will likely play an ongoing role in U.S. efforts to manage a variety of threats, including both near-peer competitors and terrorist organizations.
Full Document
National Security Research Area
Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq — Sep. 18, 2008
In a conference cohosted by RAND and the Center for Naval Analyses Corporation, members of the U.S. defense community discussed approaches to meeting the challenges of a demanding future security environment.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
South Korea Achieves Democracy Despite Previous Obstacles — Sep. 2, 2008
Key successes in achieving reform and development – particularly the creation of government stakesholders, the broadening of the ideological spectrum, collaboration between political factions, and major internal and external shocks – have contributed to the consolidation of the democratic system.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century — Aug. 25, 2008
Historical examples and the analysis of two modified Delphi exercises augment an examination of approaches to escalation management within the demands of today’s security environment and its attendant threats involving not only long-standing nuclear powers, but also insurgent groups and terrorists.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Breaking the Failed-State Cycle — May 27, 2008
The predominant threat to U.S. security in the 21st century comes not from the actions of opposing countries but from the fallout of collapsing ones. The world’s leading states can and should help the citizens of failed states by integrating efforts to reduce violence, advance the economy, and reform government.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Nuclear Terror: How Real? — May 13, 2007
The history of nuclear terrorism can be summarized: There hasn't been any — yet. But it remains a fantasy of terrorists seeking super-destructive power, and a nightmare for everyone else, with periodic reminders some day it may come true, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Missile Defense: Avoiding a Crisis in Europe — Mar. 29, 2007
The United States and Russia appear headed for a new confrontation over American plans to deploy elements of an anti-ballistic missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, even though key questions about the need for the system remain unanswered, write F. Stephen Larrabee and David E. Mosher
Commentary
Changes From Command Transfer — Dec. 06, 2006
There have been many misunderstandings about the planned transfer of operational control from the commander of the Combined Forces Command to a Korean commander. To better understand what is involved, it is critical to differentiate the three issues that are commonly associated with the transfer, writes Bruce Bennett.
Commentary
N Korea Policy Options — Nov. 28, 2006
In Iraq, regime change — even when it involved the fall of a dictator whom President George W. Bush called a member of the "axis of evil" — created many unexpected and costly problems. The same thing could happen if regime change comes to North Korea, writes Bruce Bennett.
Commentary
Tokyo's Leverage Over Pyongyang — Nov. 21, 2006
North Korea dominated the agenda at last week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Hanoi, as new rounds of negotiations with Pyongyang loomed. While all 21 member-states vowed to press Pyongyang to disarm, one nation may hold the key to a successful outcome: Japan, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
What's to Stop Kim Now? — Oct. 17, 2006
International efforts to pressure North Korea to drop its nuclear weapons program could increase the chances of one of America's worst nightmares coming true — North Korean sales of nuclear weapons and technology to Iran, terrorist groups and other nations, writes Bruce Bennett.
Commentary
On the Edge — Oct. 15, 2006
"[North Korea]'s claim that it tested an atomic weapon was the boom heard round the world, and it could set off a chain reaction that will fundamentally change the nature of security in Northeast Asia and the world," writes Bruce Bennett in a commentary distributed by the Washington Times.
Commentary
Analyzing the Republic of Korea's Defense Reform Plan — Jul. 7, 2006
In September 2005, the Republic of Korea announced a Defense Reform Plan designed to modernize military equipment and achieve a higher level of professional military personnel. Core aspects of the plan are examined, with major risks identified and ways to manage those risks discussed.
Full Document
One Korea? — Jun. 30, 2005
The demise of Kim Il Sung in 1994 after five decades of one-man rule in North Korea led many academic and policy wonks to conjecture that Korean reunification might ensue within a few years during the leadership transition from strongman father to untested and putatively weak son, Kim Jong Il. The plausible unification scenarios described at the time included regime “collapse,” regional “fragmentation,” or simply “absorption” of the precarious North Korean economy by the economic powerhouse that the South Korean “tiger” had by that time become. That none of these scenarios ensued in the following decade was a surprise, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
Costs of Korean Unification Will Depend on Circumstances — Jun. 3, 2005
North Korea's government and economy have been shrouded in obscurity since the mid-1960s. Unification with South Korea will require a multifaceted strategy to ensure security and constrain costs, particularly if the system were to unravel.
Full Document
International Affairs Research Area
Terrorists and Organized Crime Join Forces — May 24, 2005
Terrorist groups and organized crime networks are increasingly working together, strengthening their ability to inflict harm on law-abiding societies with conventional weapons today, and possibly with nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in the future, writes Rollie Lal.
Commentary
China's Stake in a Nonnuclear North Korea — Feb. 17, 2005
North Korea's declaration that it has nuclear weapons is bad news not just for the United States, but for China. Already sharing borders with nuclear-armed Russia, India, and Pakistan, the last thing China wants is an expansion of Asia's nuclear neighborhood, says Nina Hachigian
Commentary
The Multilateral Path To Disarming North Korea — Feb. 16, 2005
The United States is often criticized for favoring a multilateral approach in the six-party talks aimed at reversing North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons. Never mind that many of those critics repeatedly castigated Washington for supposedly spurning the multilateral approach in favor of unilateral action in Iraq; consistency is hardly to be expected in these matters, says Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
Challenges Facing the U.S.-South Korea Alliance — Feb. 26, 2004
Relations between the U.S. and South Korea are being tested precisely when the two countries need to stay in lockstep in dealing with North Korea. This report addresses the post-9/11 challenges facing this security alliance.
Full Document
South Koreans' Long-Term Support for Alliance with U.S. Threatened by Differences Over North Korea
Continued differences between the United States and South
Korea about how to deal with North Korea's nuclear threat are
hurting efforts to improve South Korean public attitudes toward America.
News Release (March 12, 2004)
Don't Try Regime Change in North Korea
Those ready to pursue
regime change in North Korea argue that President Kim Jong Il's actions
demonstrate the futility of negotiations and the necessity of an international
effort to isolate and pressure his regime to hasten its downfall, write
Bruce Bennett and Nina Hachigian.
Read
commentary at iht.com (January 31, 2004)
Korea-U.S. Science and Technology Relations
The new status of Korea, as well as the changing nature of global science,
mandates a new look at the bilateral S&T relationship, moving towards
a more balanced relationship.
Full Document
(2003)
The ROK-U.S. Alliance: Where Is It Headed?
As South Korea moves toward reconciliation with the North on the basis
of a strong a credible deterrence, the United States and South Korea need
a strategic plan.
Full Document
(April 2003)
Sunshine in Korea
Political debates in South Korea may influence how it responds to its
northern neighbor pursuing a nuclear weapons program. This book examines
South Korea's policies toward North Korea.
Full
Document (2002)
A Limited Success
The recent talks on North Korea's nuclear programme that in Beijing went
as well as could be expected. There were no breakthroughs, but neither
did the talks end ruinously, writes Nina
Hachigian.
Commentary (September 3, 2003)
US: Stick to Diplomacy with North Korea, Even If Talks Fail
A better government in Pyongyang is a long-term vision. Stopping North
Korea's nuclear program is a short-term necessity. Without rigorous and
sustained diplomatic engagement, the chances are slim that we will achieve
that necessary goal, writes Nina
Hachigian.
Commentary (August 7, 2003)
Don't Forget About North Korea
While the clean-up of the war in Iraq dominates the news today, the
unresolved North Korea crisis could mean nuclear war for the United States,
according to Nina Hachigian
and Bruce Bennett.
Commentary
(April 13, 2003)
Dynamics of South Korea's Policies
North Korea is a destitute state, while South Korea has prospered beyond
anyone's wildest expectations. Yet the debate over South Korea's policy
towards North Korea has become a contentious issue in a larger ideological
and political struggle. This report is the second in a series by RAND's
National Security Research Division looks at the
controversy.
Full Document
(2002)
Four Horrible Choices in North Korea
Every option the United States faces in resolving our nuclear dispute
with North Korea is a horrible choice — but some are more horrible,
writes Bruce Bennett.
Commentary
(January 14, 2003)
South Korea's "Sunshine" Policy: Dynamics of the Internal Debate
The Center for Asia Pacific Policy has released
a report about the South Korean Debate over policies toward North Korea.
Discusses the debate in South Korea over the Kim administration's "sunshine"
policy towards North Korea. A second report focuses on the debate's internal
dynamics, the major actors involved, and their roles in shaping the debate's
evolution.
Full Document
Related
Document
Read
More (2002)
The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture — 2001
Asia has experienced a period of relative peace and economic growth. However, it is beset by a variety of problems that could imperil the stability it has long enjoyed. U.S. strategy should focus on inhibiting the growth of rivalries and preventing the rise of instability in the region.
Full Document Research Brief
North Korean Behavior in Nuclear Negotiations
Describes North Korea's approach to negotiations and provides recommendations
for responding to that approach; originally published in The Nonproliferation
Review.
Read
Description (Spring 2000)
Emerging Threats, Force Structures and the Role of Air Power in Korea
Compilation of conference papers that includes an assessment of North
Korea's ballistic missile program and options for responding to it both
now and in the near term.
Conference
Proceedings (2000)
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