on Facebook
on Twitter
on YouTube
Document Information
Assessing Russia's Decline
Trends and Implications for the United States and the U.S. Air Force
Continuing trends toward military, political, economic, and social decline in Russia threaten the interests of the United States and its allies. Moscow's capacity to govern is called into question by increasing crime and corruption (and by political and economic regionalization). Both the military nuclear arsenal and the civilian nuclear power sector present risks of materials theft or diversion, as well as of tragic accident. An increasingly aging and ailing population bodes ill for Russia's future. Reversing the country's economic decline and rebuilding an effective military have proven difficult for the financially strapped government. While improvements, especially in the economic realm, are now evident, their sustainability is far from certain. The future development of these trends is critical to U.S. interests. Nuclear material from Russia could fall into the hands of terrorists-organized crime in Russia is part of a multinational network with links to global and local terror. Russia is a major oil and gas producer and transit state, and the U.S. government has identified energy interests as key to national security. A humanitarian crisis in Russia could threaten U.S. allies with refugee flows, environmental crisis, or conflict spillover. In many scenarios, it seems likely that the United States would respond. If so, the U.S. Air Force is certain to be called upon for transportation and perhaps military missions in a very demanding environment.
Support RAND Research — Buy This Product!
Paperback Cover Price: $20.00
Discounted Web Price: $18.00
Pages: 152
ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-3095-7
Free, downloadable PDF file(s) are available below.
RAND makes an electronic version of this document available for free as a public service. If you find this information valuable, please consider purchasing a paper copy of the full document to help support RAND research.
Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 7.0 or higher for the best experience.
Contents
Chapter One:
Introduction: Strategic Implications of Russia's Decline
Chapter Two:
Regional Autonomy or Increased Centralization?
Chapter Three:
The Russian Economy
Chapter Four:
Russia's Political Future: Whither Democracy and Freedom?
Chapter Five:
The People of Russia: Asset or Liability?
Chapter Six:
The Russian Military
Chapter Seven:
Weak Links: Road, Rail, and Nuclear Power
Chapter Eight:
Illustrative Scenarios
Chapter Nine:
Next Steps: Planning for and Preventing Contingencies
Chapter Ten:
The Air Force Role
The research described in this report was performed under the auspices of RAND's Project Air Force.
The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
* RAND research is conducted across divisions, centers, and projects; these organizational components are represented in the "Related RAND Divisions" section above.
Top
RAND® is a registered trademark. Copyright © 1994-2009 RAND Corporation. Last Modified: July 09, 2009 