Emmett B. Keeler

Photo of Emmett Keeler
Senior Mathematician; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Santa Monica Office


Ph.D. in mathematics, Harvard University


Emmett Keeler is a senior mathematician at RAND, a professor at UCLA and the Pardee RAND Graduate School, and the principal investigator of the Improving Chronic Illness Care Evaluation (ICICE). He has conducted technical analyses for dozens of studies evaluating quality improvement interventions, insurance design, cost-effectiveness, and quality-of-care statistics.

In the RAND Health Insurance Experiment, Keeler assessed the effects of alternative insurance plans on physiological health and developed the episode-of-treatment approach to analyze use. He also led the analysis of physiological outcomes for that study. Keeler was the lead technical analyst in the Prospective Payment System Quality of Care evaluation, addressing ways to risk-adjust outcomes and investigating the relationship between explicit, implicit, and outcome-based measures of hospital quality.

His recent projects include an investigation of how to make the business case for quality improvement as well as studies of hospital competition and Medical Savings Accounts. Three of his nearly 200 published papers have been selected as the article of their respective years by the Academy for Health Services Research and Health Policy and won their Distinguished Investigator Award. Keeler is an elected member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences.

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Professor, UCLA

Recent Projects

  • Improving the functional status and independence of older Americans
  • Whether the 1984 Medicare switch to prospective payment adversely affected health outcomes or process
  • How HMOs should be paid to improve incentives
  • Analysis of Medical Savings Accounts
  • Evaluation of an intervention to improve chronic illness care.

Selected Publications

S. M. Asch et al., "Does the Collaborative Model Improve Care for Chronic Heart Failure?" Medical Care, 43(7), 2005

G. F. Joyce et al., "The Lifetime Burden of Chronic Disease Among the Elderly," Health Affairs, 2005

J. D. Malkin et al., "Postpartum Length of Stay and Newborn Health: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," Pediatrics, 111(4), 2003

Emmett Keeler et al., "The Changing Effects of Competition on Non-Profit and For-Profit Hospital Pricing Behavior," Journal of Health Economics, 18(1), 1999

E. Keeler et al., "Can Medical Savings Accounts Reduce Health Care Costs for Non-Elderly Employed Americans?" Journal of the American Medical Association, 1996


  • A doctor with a patient preparing for a computerized tomography (CT) scan

    Knowing When to Say Yes to Medical Technology

    CT lung cancer screening turns out to be like many new medical technologies: It improves health but is quite expensive. Moreover, it needs implementation that targets those most likely to benefit and provides them the care they need efficiently.

    Nov 18, 2014 The Health Care Blog