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Abstract

Spurred by a perceived growing ballistic missile threat from withinthe Asia-Pacific region and requests from the United States to supportresearch and development on components of a missile defense system, the Japanese government decided in late 1998 and early 1999 to move forward with joint research and development with the United States on ballistic missile defense (BMD). This book explores both the benefits and potential problems of deploying a BMD system in Japan. It examines the main policies and actions undertaken thus far by Japan in the area of BMD, discusses several future milestones and likely next steps, and identifies the major Japanese individuals and organizations influencing future decisions on BMD. It also assesses how such issues as alliance maintenance, cost, feasibility, commercial incentives, and Chinese behavior are addressed by key Japanese players. It finds that, to date, Japan has undertaken no effort to develop or acquire a dedicated BMD system nor has it assessed in any thorough or systematic manner the larger political and strategic implications of a BMD system. More importantly, no consensus has yet emerged in favor of the development or deployment of a full-fledged BMD system in Japan. The book concludes that Japan could gradually acquire many of the elements of a BMD system while avoiding an explicit, formal deployment decision. The development or deployment of a complete BMD system with the United States, however, will likely pose many challenges to the U.S.-Japan alliance.

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Table of Contents

  • Preface PDF

  • Tables

    Tables and Map PDF

  • Summary PDF

  • Acknowledgements

    Acknowledgments PDF

  • Acronyms PDF

  • Chapter One

    Introduction PDF

  • Chapter Two

    Motivations and Responses PDF

  • Chapter Three

    Domestic Factors Determining Future Decisions PDF

  • Chapter Four

    Conclusions and Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance PDF

  • Bibliography

    Bibiliography PDF

The research described in this report was performed under the auspices of RAND's National Security Research Division.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.