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Abstract

Describing Pakistan's likely future course, this book seeks to inform U.S. efforts to achieve an effective foreign policy strategy toward the country. The book forms an empirical analysis of developments in Pakistan and an assessment of the effectiveness of U.S. policy as of August 2009. Drawing on interviews of elites, polling data, and statistical data on Pakistan's armed forces, the book presents a political and political-military analysis. Primary data and analyses from Pakistanis and international economic organizations are used in the book's demographic and economic analyses. The book assesses Pakistan's own policies, based on similar sources, on government documents, and on the authors' close reading of the assessments of several outside observers. The book also discusses U.S. policy regarding Pakistan, which was based on interviews with U.S. policymakers and on U.S. policy documents. The policy recommendations are based on an assessment of the findings in all these areas. The book concludes with a number of recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Air Force concerning how the United States could forge a broad yet effective relationship with this complicated state.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Pakistan's Future: Is Past Prologue?

  • Chapter Three

    Pakistan's Ability to Mitigate Sources of Insecurity

  • Chapter Four

    How Effective Have U.S. Policies Toward Pakistan Been?

  • Chapter Five

    U.S. Policy Options for Pakistan

The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force and conducted by RAND Project AIR FORCE.

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