The validity of the preference profiles used for evaluating impacts in the Dutch National Risk Assessment

by Henry H. Willis, Dimitris Potoglou, Wandi Bruine de Bruin, Stijn Hoorens

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Abstract

The Dutch National Risk Assessment forms part of the wider National Security Strategy introduced in the Netherlands in 2007. The Strategy aims to protect society and civilians within its territory from internal and external threats. Preference profiles within the Dutch National Risk Assessment (NRA) help to describe the sensitivity of concerns about threat scenarios to assumptions about the Dutch public's perceptions of impacts from these scenarios. RAND Europe was asked by the Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) Department of External Scientific Affairs, Ministry of Security and Justice, to assess the validity of preference profiles and associated weight sets as currently used in the National Risk Assessment. This document reports on the methods and analysis undertaken to assess the validity of preference profiles and associated weights. It also provides a set of recommendations on how the Ministry of Security and Justice can incorporate public values into the National Risk Assessment, using scientifically validated methods. The report should be of interest to individuals and organizations involved in strategic risk management.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Overview of the National Risk Assessment Methodology

  • Chapter Three

    Research approach

  • Chapter Four

    Assessing the validity of the preference profiles

  • Chapter Five

    Alternatives for improving the validity of the NRA preference profiles

  • Chapter Six

    Concluding observations

  • Appendix A

    Description of preference profiles in the NRA

  • Appendix B

    Literature search results

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for the Dutch Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Department of External Scientific Affairs, Ministry of Security and Justice and conducted by RAND Europe.

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