Agenda of the Joint Meeting of the RAND Europe Council of Advisors and RAND CGRS Advisory Board

Wednesday 4th May 2022

Center for Global Risk and Security Welcome Dinner
  • Wiltons, 55 Jermyn St, St. James's, London SW1Y 6LX

Thursday 5th May 2022

Location: Smeaton Room, One Great George Street, London W1P 3AA

How Should Global Defense Respond to Today’s Geopolitical Realities?
  • Benedict Wilkinson, Deputy Director, Defense and Security, RAND Europe
  • Peter Watkins, Former Director General, Strategy & International, UK Ministry of Defense
Lessons of COVID-19 for the Next Pandemic
Disinformation: Implications for Society
  • Jessica Cecil, former Director, Trusted News Initiative for the BBC
  • Mark Thompson, former Director General, BBC, President and CEO of The New York Times Co.
Buffet lunch at venue
Opening of Joint Meeting
The State of RAND
Exploring the Security Implications of a Chinese Developed and Governed Transcontinental Power Grid
European Strategic Autonomy in Defense: What are the Options?
The Hypersonic Missile Arms Race: What are the Implications?
Disruptive Money: Exploring the Future of Corporate Cryptocurrency
Wrap up
Proceed to House of Commons to clear security for dinner
Cocktails, Strangers' Dining Room, House of Commons
Dinner, Members' Dining Room, House of Commons
[Adopting Alliances to an Emerging Multipolar Order]
  • [Rt. Hon. Ben Wallace, Secretary of State for Defense (Invited)]
Depart from dinner to hotel with option for after-dinner drinks at St. James' Court Hotel bar

Friday May 6th, 2022

Breakfast at Hotel
Depart hotel for One Great George Street venue Meeting space: Council Room
CGRS Advisory Board Business Meeting (CGRS Advisory Board members only)
European Defense and Security Policy after Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Germany’s Strategic Reset
Securing Future Defense Supply Chains against Black Swan Disruptions
Buffet lunch at venue
Meeting Adjourns

Presenter Biographies

Ismael Arciniegas Rueda is Senior Economist at RAND where he currently manages a team of researchers supporting FEMA on the cost analysis of the multi-billion dollar reconstruction of Utilities (electricity/water) in Puerto Rico. At RAND Dr Arciniegas has also led research work on Transactive Energy Platforms. Dr Arciniegas is a leader in the energy industry with more than 20 years of global experience. Dr Arciniegas has held leadership positions at major energy companies such as AES, PSEG, Constellation and TransAlta. At those companies, Dr Arciniegas led structuring, quantitative and trading teams that successfully participated in wholesale, retail, and renewable energy markets. Dr Arciniegas also worked at American Oil Company (AMOCO) on Natural Gas, Pacific Economics Group (PEG) on electric regulation and at Los Alamos National Lab on Electric markets. Dr Arciniegas is Adjunct Faculty at the Catholic University of America, Department of Economics, where he teaches Energy Markets and Time Series. He also teaches on Energy Markets at Pardee RAND Graduate School of Public Policy. Return to agenda »

Carl Bildt is Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, contributing columnist to Washington Post as well as columnist for Project Syndicate. He serves as Senior Advisor to the Wallenberg Foundations in Sweden and is on the Board of Trustees of RAND in the US. He has served as both Prime Minister (1991-1994) and Foreign Minister (2006-2014) of Sweden. March 2021, Mr Bildt was appointed WHO Special Envoy for the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT-Accelerator). Subsequently, he served in international functions with the EU and UN, primarily related to the conflicts in the Balkans. He was Co-Chairman of the Dayton peace talks on Bosnia and become the first High Representative in the country. Later, he was the Special Envoy of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to the region. Return to agenda »

Carol Black is currently Chair of the British Library; the Center for Ageing Better; and Think Ahead, the Government's fast-stream training program for mental health social workers. She chairs NHS England/Improvement's Advisory Board on Employee Health and Wellbeing, and is Adviser to NHSI and PHE on Health and Work. She is also a member of both the Board of the Institute for Employment Studies and ukactive, a charity dedicated to improving the health of the nation. In 2019, she completed a seven-year term as Principal of Newnham College, Cambridge. She still sits on the University's Strategy Board on Student Mental Health and Wellbeing. She is a Patron of the Women's Leadership Center at the Judge Business School. Dame Carol has completed four independent reviews for the UK Government: of the health of the working-age population in 2008 as National Director for Health and Work; of sickness absence in Britain in 2011 as co-chair; of employment outcomes of addiction to drugs or alcohol, or obesity, in 2016; and on illicit drugs, demand, supply and treatment. Dame Carol is a past-President of the Royal College of Physicians, of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges, and of the British Lung Foundation, and past-Chair of the Nuffield Trust for health policy. Return to agenda »

Jessica Cecil is director of the BBC Online Project, where she leads the initiative tasked with focusing and reshaping the BBC's digital services which are currently used by 140 million users every week. Before this, she was controller of BBC Make it Digital, leading a major initiative to inspire a new generation to get creative with digital technology. Among other achievements, the initiative saw the development of a codeable computer that was given for free to one million children across the UK, while a further one million are being used by children across 50 countries. Prior to this, she was chief of staff to four BBC Director-Generals and in 2011 led a strategic change program to focus BBC spending and save £700 million a year. Jessica is an Emmy-nominated program maker, senior journalist, and was assistant editor of BBC Newsnight. She is a non-executive director of the London Ambulance Service and is also on the IntoUniversity Advisory Panel and the International Council of the Wallace Collection. Return to agenda »

Jeremy Farrar is the Director of Wellcome, a global charitable foundation which supports science to solve urgent health challenges. Jeremy's whole career has been dedicated to pro-tecting and improving global health. As a researcher he specialized in infectious diseases, and he has published more than 600 papers. Born in Singapore, Jeremy lived there and in Cyprus, New Zealand and Libya as a child before moving to the UK as a teenager. He holds degrees in immunology and medicine from University College London and a doctorate in neuroimmunology from the University of Oxford. He trained as a doctor in London, Edinburgh, Melbourne, San Francisco and Oxford. Jeremy spent 18 years leading the Clinical Research Unit at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, where he made many pivotal advances in the understanding of diseases like tuberculosis (TB), malaria, typhoid, dengue and influenza, as well as helping to train scientists from across South-east Asia and beyond. He joined Wellcome as Director in 2013. As part of the response to the Covid-19 pandemic, Jeremy is a member of the UK government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the UK Vaccine Taskforce and the Principles Group of the ACT-Accelerator hosted by the World Health Organization (WHO), and he chairs the WHO R&D Blueprint Advisory Group. As well as sharing his expertise, he champions rapid investment in research on Covid-19 testing, treatments and vaccines, and argues that everyone – not only people who live in rich countries – should benefit equally from the discoveries that result. He has held a number of other advisory roles for govern-ments and international bodies such as the WHO. He was named 12th in the Fortune list of World's 50 Greatest Leaders in 2015 and was awarded the Memorial Medal and Ho Chi Minh City Medal from the Government of Vietnam for services to public health, medicine and research. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society, the European Molecular Biology Organization, the US National Academies, and the UK Academy of Medical Sciences. In 2018 he received the President Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter Humanitarian of the Year Award and in 2019 was knighted for services to global health. Return to agenda »

Liam Fox held several ministerial roles in John Major's Conservative government. He served as Constitutional Affairs Spokesman (1998-1999), Shadow Health Secretary (1999-2003), Conservative Party chairman (2003-05), Shadow Foreign Secretary (2005) and Shadow Defense Secretary (2005-10). In 2010, he was appointed Secretary of State for Defense, a position from which he resigned on 14 October 2011. Fox was Secretary of State for International Trade from July 2016 to July 2019. He was elected as the Conservative MP for North Somerset in 1992. Before his election to Parliament, Fox worked as a GP and is a former Civilian Army Medical Officer and Divisional Surgeon with St John Ambulance. He attended school at St Bride's High School before studying medicine at the University of Glasgow. Return to agenda »

Liz Hastings Roer is an economist at RAND. Her recent research focuses on supply chains, defense acquisitions and defense industrial bases. Hastings Roer is a former active-duty U.S. Air Force Officer. She holds a B.A. and an M.A. from Boston University and a Ph.D. from U.C. San Diego, all in economics. Return to agenda »

Bridget Kendall former news correspondent was appointed the first female Master of Peterhouse, the University of Cambridge's oldest College, in 2016. Educated at Oxford and Harvard, her career as a journalist started when she joined the BBC World Service in 1983 and became the BBC's Moscow correspondent in 1989, covering the collapse of the Soviet Union as well as Boris Yeltsin's rise to power. She was then appointed Washington Correspondent before moving to the senior role of BBC Diplomatic Correspondent, reporting on major conflicts such as those in Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Her interviews with global leaders include Margaret Thatcher, Hillary Clinton, Mikhail Gorbachev and Vladimir Putin. Among her awards are the James Cameron Award for distinguished journalism and an MBE from Her Majesty the Queen in the 1994 New Year's Honors list. She is an Honorary Fellow of St Antony’s College Oxford and Lady Margaret Hall Oxford, and also an Honorary Fellow of the British Academy. Her book The Cold War; a New Oral History explores the decades long conflict through eyewitness accounts. She is host of the BBC radio's weekly discussion program, The Forum. Return to agenda »

Joachim Krause was professor of international relations and Director of the Institute for Social Sciences at Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel from 2001 to 2022. From 1978 to 1993, Mr. Krause was a researcher at the research institute of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik. Next, he was deputy director of the German Council on Foreign Relations (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik) until 2001 and then Steve Muller Professor for German Studies at the Paul Nitze School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Bologna, Italy from 2002 to 2003. In addition to his professional activities, professor Krause has been a member of numerous German government delegations, including to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva 1988-1989 and the UN Special Commission and Observer Mission in Iraq from 1991-1992. Return to agenda »

krishna kumar

Krishna Kumar (he/him) is vice president, International; Distinguished Chair in International Economic Policy; and a senior economist at RAND. He is also director of the Initiative for Global Human Progress at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, where he teaches economic development. He previously directed RAND's Labor and Population research unit. Kumar has led or co-led projects to develop a blueprint for the economic development of North Korea, find mutually beneficial opportunities for Syrian refugees and host countries in the Middle East, study informal labor markets in Bangladesh, develop a comprehensive model of U.S. labor market inequality, calculate the gross regional product of the Kurdistan Region–Iraq, implement a labor force survey to collect data for the Kurdistan Regional Government to understand the region's unemployment rate, and develop a data collection system. He has conducted a randomized control trial evaluation of an agricultural training program in China to improve farmer decisions and evaluated the socioeconomic impact on the working poor of moving into permanent housing in India. He has also studied the effect of U.S. federal funding of life sciences research on university R&D and commercialization, the role of economic and social policies in Mexico's development, and public policy on Indian entrepreneurship, and conducted a comparative analysis of the Indian and Chinese education systems. Kumar holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago and has had research published in leading journals focusing on economic growth and development and macroeconomics. Return to agenda »

Gustav Lindstrom is the Director of the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) – the European Union's Agency analyzing foreign, security and defense policy issues. In his capacity as director, he also chairs the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific – EU Committee (CSCAP-EU). Previously, Dr Lindstrom served as the Head of the Emerging Security Challenges Program at the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP). In this function, he was also co-chair of the Partnership for Peace Consortium (PfP-C) Emerging Security Challenges Working Group and a member of the Executive Academic Board of the European Security and Defense College. Prior to his tenure at the GCSP, he was a Research Fellow and later a Senior Research Fellow at the EUISS. He has also worked at RAND and the World Bank. His areas of focus include the EU's Common Security and Defense Policy, cybersecurity, EU-NATO relations, and emerging security challenges. Dr Lindstrom holds a doctorate in Policy Analysis from the RAND Graduate School and MA in International Policy Studies from Stanford University. Return to agenda »

Rebecca Lucas is an analyst working in the area of defense, security and infrastructure at RAND Europe. Her research interests cover a wide variety of defense and security topics, including defense industrial and supply chain policy and the impact of emerging technologies. Prior to RAND, she worked for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), as well as Booz Allen Hamilton, where she supported the Department of Defense. She holds a B.A. from Wellesley College and an M.A. in security studies from Georgetown University, and is currently working towards her PhD in Defense Studies from King's College London. Return to agenda »

Jim Mignano is a Ph.D. student in the Technology Applications and Implications stream at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and an assistant policy researcher at RAND. His research interests include international political economy, economic statecraft, science and technology policy, clandestine networks, collective action, and trust in cyberspace. Prior to joining Pardee RAND, he was an information technology consultant at the Oregon Center for Career Development in Childhood Care and Education at Portland State University, where he administered a statewide early-learning workforce development data system. He previously served as executive director of Emma's Garden, a community-based training and advocacy organization. He has an M.S. in political science from Portland State University. Return to agenda »

Julia Muravska is a research leader at RAND Europe, where she leads the Defense Industry and Acquisition research portfolio. With 12 years of experience in conducting, managing and leading research in defense and security, Muravska combines expertise in defense and security industries, policy, and technology with wide-ranging experience in research management and design. She routinely contributes her expertise to support research on defense and security threats and emerging defense-relevant technologies. Muravska also maintains an interest and track record beyond the defense industrial area and has been a lead author or researcher on a range of defense, security, and international relations projects, such as societal resilience, influence operations, and diversity in the armed forces. After completing her doctorate in the field of the European defense equipment market, Muravska worked in a defense- and security-focused management consultancy where she undertook market analysis, industry mapping and strategy formulation projects prior to joining RAND. She also taught a Master’s level course on the European Defense and Security Policy. Muravska holds both an M.Sc. and a Ph.D. in international relations from the London School of Economics (LSE), as well as a B.A. with high distinction from the University of Toronto, also in international relations. Return to agenda »

Daniel Norton is a senior management systems analyst with 27 years of experience in analyzing mobility, modernization, and strategic planning issues for the U.S. Army and Air Force. He began his career analyzing the performance of next-generation armored and mechanized vehicles using high-resolution ground-combat simulations. He then shifted his focus to improving the strategic mobility of Army units. He later analyzed force sizing and airfield suitability issues in the Next-Generation Gunship and KC-135 Recapitalization AoAs. More recently, Norton has led studies on satellite vulnerability, adding winglets to the Air Force tanker fleets, and capability improvements to the 4th gen. fighter fleets. Over the last two years, he led studies for Air Force Global Strike Command examining ways to enhance bomber operations in anti-access, area-denial environments, and another to determine the economic service life of the UH-1N. Norton has an A.B. in Economics and Political Science from Occidental and an MBA from the University of California, Berkeley. Return to agenda »

Steven Popper is a senior economist at RAND. As associate director of the RAND Science and Technology Policy Institute (1996-2001), Popper provided research and analytic support to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and other agencies of the Executive Branch. He coauthored the flagship study of the RAND Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis (2003) and co-developer of a new methodological framework, Robust Decision Making (RDM,) for decisionmaking under profound uncertainty that been applied to an expanding set of policy issues. He has been the PI for RAND's first major projects in Israel on long-term energy strategies, domestic policing, environmental health planning and long-term socioeconomic strategy. His research also focuses on science technology policy, innovation and regional economic development and international economics. He has served as a consultant to the World Bank, has been a section officer of the industrial science and technology section of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and is a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Popper received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley. Return to agenda »

Hans Pung is President of RAND Europe, a not-for-profit public policy research organization that helps improve policy and decision-making through research and analysis. With offices in Cambridge (UK), and Brussels (BE), RAND's staff undertakes empirical studies for public, private, and third sector clients on a diverse range of policy issues including innovation, science, health, social policy, Defense, home affairs, and infrastructure. Hans also serves as Acting Vice President, International, for RAND where he oversees all of RAND's activities outside of the United States. Hans joined RAND as a policy analyst in 2002 and continues to lead and deliver research projects, particularly around industrial economics and security policy issues. He has held a range of senior leadership positions in RAND Europe, including directing RAND's European Defense and security research portfolio as well as heading RAND Europe's efforts to grow and diversify into new research areas. Prior to joining RAND, Hans served as an engineer officer in the United States Army with responsibility for logistics, personnel, and operations and overseas service in the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Germany. He also led the emergency power response team at the Pentagon in the aftermath of 9/11. A mathematics graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point where he commanded the United States Corps of Cadets as a senior and played on the (American) football team, Hans also holds advanced degrees in mathematical modelling and modern history from Oxford University, which he attended as a (George C) Marshall Scholar. Return to agenda »

Fiona Quimbre is a defense and security analyst at RAND Europe. Her work focuses on helping decisionmakers navigate an uncertain strategic and threat environment, prepare for possible futures, and mitigate risks to societies and humanity. In particular, her research topics center on futures foresight, Chinese foreign policy, cybersecurity, defense innovation and the impact of emerging technologies. During her time at RAND, she has delivered a number of cybersecurity, emerging technologies and futures projects to a range of European Defense and security actors including the European Commission, the European Defense Agency, EC DG HOME, the UK Ministry of Defense, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and the Estonian Ministry of the Interior. Prior to joining RAND, she interned at the French Ministry of Defense. She holds first-class degrees with an M.A. in China studies and international relations from Peking University, an M.A. in international relations from Sciences Po Bordeaux and a dual B.Sc.Econ. in political science from Sciences Po Bordeaux and Cardiff University. Quimbre is a Yenching Scholar. Return to agenda »

Lucia Retter is a research leader at RAND Europe. Her research focuses on understanding the factors driving government strategy, policy and decision-making at the nexus between security, influence and prosperity, including the benefits, trade-offs and risks associated with different capability development programs. Since joining RAND in 2013, Retter has led studies involving defense strategy, acquisition and capability, technology horizon scanning, defense and space industrial base and skills for the UK Ministry of Defense, the European Defense Agency, the European Commission and other European governments. Recent work includes studies for the UK Ministry of Defense to help frame and inform its Climate Change and Sustainability strategic approach, studies for UK Government clients in support of the national and defense space strategies, a series of studies for the UK Government on the options for the future UK combat air sector out to 2040, a study on energy and environment factors pertinent to military capability planning and a large study for the European Commission on skills needed by the EU defense industry now and in the future. Retter holds and M.A. cum laude in international relations and international economics from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), where she specialized in economic policy, and a B.A. in modern languages from Clare College, University of Cambridge. Return to agenda »

Mark Thompson is a British business executive who served as director general of the BBC (2004–12) before becoming president and CEO of The New York Times Co. (2012–20). Thompson attended Stonyhurst College, a prestigious Jesuit Roman Catholic school in Lancashire. After graduating (1979) from Merton College, Oxford, he joined the BBC as a production trainee. For the next 33 years he worked solely in broadcasting. By the age of 30 he had become editor of BBC television's flagship nightly Nine O'Clock News. He went on to become one of the BBC's most senior managers, rising to controller of the BBC2 channel in 1996 and to director of national and regional broadcasting in 1999. In 2002 Thompson left the BBC to become chief executive of Channel 4, an independently run, publicly owned TV corporation, which, unlike the BBC, was funded by advertising. When he took over, Channel 4 was losing money; two years later it was profitable, partly because he mixed popular reality shows with the channel's more traditional upmarket dramas, news, and documentaries. In 2004 Thompson returned to the BBC as its director general. After leaving the BBC in 2012, Thompson joined The New York Times Co. as CEO and president. Under his oversight, the company experienced a dramatic turnaround, backed by a dramatic increase in online subscriptions as it adopted a digital-centric focus. Thompson stepped down in 2020, and the following year he became chairman of the board of directors at Ancestry, a genealogy company. Return to agenda »

Peter Watkins was formerly the Director General Strategy & International (2017-18) and Director General Security Policy (2014-17) in the UK Ministry of Defense (MOD). In these roles, he was responsible for strategic policy & planning; the Defense dimension of the UK's cross-government response to Russia and China; defense relations with NATO, the EU and with key bilateral allies; and defense policy aspects of cyber, space and novel technologies. Previous roles included Director General of the Defense Academy (2011-14); Director of Operational Policy (2008-11); Private Secretary to the Defense Secretary (2001-03) and Counsellor (Defense & Aerospace), British Embassy Bonn/Berlin (1996-2000). He was a Visiting Fellow, Harvard University (2006-07). Peter was educated at Peterhouse, Cambridge University, where he studied History and Political Philosophy. He is an ancien of the NATO Defense College (1993-94); and was a Fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University for the 2006-07 academic year. He is a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society, a Liveryman of the Coachmakers' Company and a Member of the Institute of Directors. Return to agenda »

Benedict (Ben) Wilkinson is deputy director (defense) and co-director of the Center for Defense Economics and Acquisition at RAND Europe. Wilkinson has more than a decade’s worth of experience leading research projects on a wide range of defense and security challenges for a host of clients including the UK Ministry of Defense (Dstl, DCDC SONAC, DST), the UK Home Office, the UK Commission on Countering Extremism as well as the European Parliament, NATO and the Australian Department of Defense. His areas of research interest are wide-ranging but include UK defense and security policy; defense acquisition and industry (with a particular interest in defense economics); wider geopolitics and national strategy; counter-terrorism and counter-extremism. His research has been featured in national and international media including the BBC, the Times, the Independent, RTE and Channel Four. He has published more than 50 journal articles, reports and policy papers, and has written two books. His most recent, on terrorism as a failed strategy, was published by Hurst and Oxford University Press in 2020. Prior to joining RAND, he was director of research in the Policy Institute at King’s College London. He has previously held posts as head of Security and Counter-Terrorism at RUSI and as a senior directing staff at the Royal College of Defense Studies. He completed his Ph.D in the Department of War Studies at KCL under the supervision of Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman. Return to agenda »