Intelligence Gathering
Selected Research, Commentary and Testimony
More Value Should be Placed on the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis — Feb. 29, 2008
While the initiatives set in motion by the December 2004 intelligence reform legislation are promising, they are just the beginning. Intelligence analysis needs improvement across U.S. intelligence agencies to account for a world of threats very different from that of the Cold War.
Full Document
National Security Research Area
A Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Analyzing Global Risk and Security — Nov. 23, 2007
The RAND Center for Global Risk and Security draws on RAND's unparalleled breadth of expertise to provide a focal point for cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research and analysis on the increasingly complex issue of global security.
Read MoreInternational Affairs Research Area
Countering Terrorists' Use of Network Technologies — Oct. 15, 2007
Precluding terrorists from getting the technology they want is impractical, and developing direct counters is unlikely to yield high payoffs. Instead, counterterrorism programs should exploit the technologies and the information such technologies use to enable more direct security force operations.
Full DocumentTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
New Tools Can Make Intelligence Collection More Responsive — May 2, 2007
The Air Force must be able to respond to fleeting targets such as individual terrorists who expose themselves to detection and attack for as little as a few minutes. Better management of intelligence assets can help enable a rapid response.
Full Document
Research Brief
Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment — Apr. 05, 2007
In testimony presented before the Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment, Brian Michael Jenkins discussed reducing the radicalization and recruitment that support the jihadist enterprise.
Testimony
Media Leaks Hinder Intelligence Gathering — Mar. 11, 2007
For years, the U.S. news media have served as an open vault of classified information on U.S. intelligence collection sources and methods. The problem is worse now than ever, given the scope and seriousness of leaks coupled with the power of electronic dissemination and Internet search engines, writes James B. Bruce.
Commentary
Basic Principles for Homeland Security — Jan. 30, 2007
In testimony presented before the House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Homeland Security, Brian Michael Jenkins discusses the current threats the U.S. faces and offers some basic principles for homeland security.
Testimony
America's Muslim Resource — Oct. 10, 2006
America continues to search for new ways to better protect the U.S. homeland from the threat of terrorist attacks. One effective way would be to get the help of more Americans with the language skills, cultural and religious knowledge, and contacts to identify and stop would-be terrorists before they strike. The people who could provide this help to combat terrorism are America's Muslims, writes Farhana Ali.
Commentary
How to Curb Rising Suicide Terrorism in Afghanistan — Jul. 18, 2006
Suicide attacks have become a major factor in the current resurgence of violence in Afghanistan, indicating Al Qaeda is staging a comeback. So far this year, there have been 32 suicide terrorist attacks, more than the total committed in the entire history of the country, write Hekmat Karzai and Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Experts Debate Intelligence Theory and Reform — Mar. 29, 2006
A workshop co-sponsored by RAND and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence discussed how theories underlie intelligence and might lead to both a better understanding and better practice of U.S. intelligence.
Full Document
Strike a Balance by Weighing Threats — Feb. 5, 2006
Recent revelations about U.S. domestic wiretapping have underscored the need to reflect on the impact that the global war on terror is having on American society. If the war is to last for many years or even decades, what long-term changes are we prepared to accept in terms of limits on civil liberties and other things we value, such as the Constitution's checks on executive power? writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
President Obscured the Case for Spying — Feb. 5, 2006
Why spy? Or, in this case, why order the National Security Agency to engage in eavesdropping, including listening in on American citizens? In fact, the case for spying in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11 was a good one, one that would strike most Americans - including civil libertarians - as fair. Unfortunately, in rushing to make an expansive case for the power of the president, the Bush administration has done neither national security nor itself any good.writes Gregory F. Treverton.
Commentary
War, Propaganda and Public Opinion — Dec. 18, 2005
Throughout America's history, the nation's citizens have been uncomfortable with the idea of government rather than a free press reporting on the news, both in the United States and abroad. Critics have labeled U.S. government attempts to bring news to people in other nations as "propaganda" intended to sway popular opinion, sometimes using false information. Supporters prefer to call such efforts "information campaigns" intended to educate the public with facts, writes Lowell Schwartz.
Commentary
Biometrics in the War on Terror — Dec. 18, 2005
With wars waged far from the traditional battlefield and with terrorists committed to the mass murder of civilians, the U.S. government needs to be able to rapidly identify terrorists and others who pose a national security threat so it can answer the age-old question: Is this person a friend or foe?, writes John D. Woodward, Jr.
Commentary
Using State and Local Intelligence in the War on Terrorism — Dec. 8, 2005
State and local law enforcement agencies may be uniquely positioned to augment federal intelligence capabilities in the war on terrorism, but they would benefit from increased funding, training, and oversight.
Full Document
Next Steps in Reshaping Intelligence — Oct. 31, 2005
The creation of the Director of National Intelligence position reshaped how U.S. intelligence is organized. The next steps are transforming how it does business by improving analysis; shaping intelligence by mission or issue rather than collection source or agency; and more.
Full Document
Let Sgt. Friday Fight Terror — Sep. 25, 2005
The suspected Al Qaeda videotape that aired recently and singled out Los Angeles for terror attacks should drive home a point to everyone in Southern California: Local law enforcement agencies need more tools to fight the people who are intent on slaughtering Americans, write Brian Michael Jenkins and Jack Weiss.
Commentary
Selecting for Security — Jul. 26, 2005
The key to guarding against terrorism lies in making vigilant, not blind, choices of whom to monitor and how, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Technology's Impact on Policymaking — Jul. 1, 2005
Policymakers increasingly rely on information-age data sources, especially to help them track fast-changing, international events, but many still prefer intelligence analysis conveyed through one-on-one briefings.
Full Document
Science and Technology Research Area
Strategy: Political Warfare Neglected — Jun. 26, 2005
In Yemen three years ago, Islamic scholars challenged a group of defiant al-Qaeda prisoners to a theological debate. “If you convince us that your ideas are justified by the Koran, then we will join you in the struggle,” the scholars told the terrorists. “But if we succeed in convincing you of our ideas, then you must agree to renounce violence.” The scholars won the debate, the prisoners renounced violence, were released and were given help to find jobs. Some have since offered advice to Yemeni security services – a tip from one led to the death of al-Qaeda's top leader in the country, writes Brian Michael Jenkins
Commentary
U.S. Intelligence Needs Revolutionary Transformation — May 13, 2005
A “revolution in intelligence affairs” is needed to prepare the U.S. intelligence community to meet the future challenges of the global war on terrorism and the changing post-Cold War security environment, according to a senior intelligence officer conducting RAND-initiated research.
Full Document National Security Research Area
The Department of Homeland Security: The Road Ahead — Jan. 26, 2005
Testimony presented to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: "You have asked that this testimony address the primary management challenges faced by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and to describe those challenges as they have impacted the Department's efforts on border security, transportation security, emergency preparedness and response, and intelligence. Within the context of those functional areas, I will discuss six critical challenges facing DHS," says Michael Wermuth.
Congressional Testimony
True Intelligence Reform Is Cultural, Not Just Organizational Chart Shift — Jan. 13, 2005
The intelligence reform bill recently signed by President Bush will hardly solve all the problems confronting the American intelligence community, but it is a beginning. Someone is at last in charge. The new director of national intelligence (DNI) will not, though, have a free hand to reshape American intelligence. The bill gives the DNI authority to move only small amounts of money. So big changes — like collapsing all the intelligence collectors into a single agency — are ruled out, write Gregory F. Treverton and Peter A. Wilson.
Commentary
Assessing Technology's Effects on Military Decisionmaking — Dec. 2, 2004
Advances in information gathering and sharing can improve military awareness and collaboration, but the effects of new technologies on military decisionmaking still need to be assessed.
Full Document
National Security Research Area
Don't Move Too Fast on
Intelligence Reform — Aug. 17, 2004
With new warnings of terrorist attacks in the United States, many elected officials and
candidates for office are understandably eager to show they are responding as rapidly as
possible to protect homeland security. This has set off a race to see who can be fastest to
push for implementing the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission—at a time when careful
deliberation is the most prudent course, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Can We Learn from Others?
As the 9/11 Commission contemplates recommendations to transform America’s counterterrorism intelligence structure, it can gain valuable insights by looking at the successes and failures of our allies in stopping terrorist attacks, write William Rosenau and
Peter Chalk.
Commentary
(April 15, 2004)
Coordinating the War on Terrorism
This RAND paper addresses coordination issues in the war on terrorism
for both the White House and the intelligence community to mitigate risks
of mistakes, lost opportunities, conflicting and redundant policies, and
actions that diverge from the President's goals. It surveys the historical
record, lays out choices, and makes recommendations.
Full
Document (2004)
Intelligence — A Funhouse of Reflections
The panel that will review U.S. intelligence on Iraqi weapons of mass
destruction (WMD) will surely dig deeply into intelligence's dealings
with Bush administration officials, but it is worth pausing over the intelligence
side, how we knew what we knew, or didn't know. In a perfect storm of
inference, ignorance and (dis)information, we convinced ourselves that
Saddam Hussein must still have WMD, writes Greg
Treverton.
Commentary
(February 15, 2004)
Predicting Disaster, Epidemics, or Threats to America
Intelligence and public safety experts anticipate major public threats
by "connecting the dots" — recognizing broad patterns from small or unusual
signs. A new report explains why connecting the dots sometimes fails
and how to fix the problem.
Full
Document (2004)
Improving Terrorism Warnings — The Homeland Security System
Testimony presented to the House Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee
on National Security, Emerging Threats, and International Relations by
Michael A. Wermuth.
Full
Document (March 16, 2004)
We Collected A Little, and Assumed a Lot
When used wisely, intelligence can contribute to good policy. But history
shows that any policymaker can seize upon bits of intelligence that confirm
his or her worst fears or greatest hopes, writes Bruce Berkowitz.
Commentary
(February 1, 2004)
Counterterror Coalitions: Strategies for U.S. Cooperation with Europe
and NATO
For a successful counterterror campaign, the U.S. should pursue distinctly
different strategies when dealing with Europe and NATO — one for military
and intelligence, another for financial and law enforcement.
Full
Document (2003)
Fight Terrorism With Intelligence, Not Might
The "war" on terrorism is really more comparable to the long and continuing
battle against crime waged by police departments around the world. The
leading role in this antiterrorism battle isn't played by GI Joe, but
by Dick Tracy, writes Sara Daly.
Commentary
(December 26, 2003)
A Fresh Start Against Terror
The White House and Congress are in a tug of war over how best to counter
the global terrorist threat. Both insist on the need for better intelligence,
but they can't agree on who should provide it and how much to spend on
it, writes Bruce Berkowitz.
Commentary
(August 4, 2003)
Reshaping Intelligence for an Age of Information
In this RAND-Cambridge book, author Greg
Treverton examines how the world of intelligence has been transformed
by the post-Cold War and information eras. He argues that this transformation
requires intelligence to be fundamentally reshaped and lays out a roadmap
for such changes.
Read
More (2001)
Why All That Chatter Doesn't Tell Us Much
Although officials said the intercepts indicated that terrorists might
have moved closer to an attack, there was still not enough detail on who,
when and where. This is frustrating as well as terrifying. But once you
understand the technology, it is clear why they call it "chatter" and
why it is so hard to make sense of, writes Bruce Berkowitz.
Commentary
(February 16, 2003)
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