Since the 1970s, there has been a tolerance policy in the Netherlands for the sale of cannabis products in ‘coffeeshops.’ This policy created a so-called ‘back-door problem’: sales through the front door are tolerated, while cultivation and subsequent supply through the back door remain illegal. This limits oversight of product quality and origins, and leaves production and distribution vulnerable to criminal involvement. In response to these issues, the Dutch government started an experiment to introduce a legal supply chain for recreational cannabis in ten municipalities. The experiment aims to test whether it is practically and economically feasible to regulate and operate such a closed cannabis supply chain and to explore the effects of cultivating and delivering quality-controlled cannabis to coffeeshops.
To help understand the outcomes of this experiment, a research consortium consisting of Breuer & Intraval, RAND Europe and the Trimbos Institute was commissioned by the Netherlands Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) to conduct a study throughout the four-year experimentation phase. The study will investigate the impact of the experiment on health, user experience, nuisance, displacement effects, as well as how the experiment is implemented in different settings.
A variety of methods are being used in the approach, including surveys of coffeeshop visitors and local residents, as well as interviews with coffeeshop owners and other parties directly or indirectly involved. Researchers are comparing ten intervention municipalities where the controlled cannabis supply chain is implemented with a group of ten comparison municipalities where the current situation is maintained, in order to map the effects of the experiment. Prior to the start of the experiment, the research team conducted a baseline measurement in intervention cities as well as in the control group.
The first follow-up measurement covers developments after the experimental phase began on 7 April 2025. It finds that the controlled supply chain is operational and has increased transparency and cooperation among municipalities, coffeeshops, growers and supervisory bodies. Coffeeshops in intervention municipalities offer a broader range of cannabis products than at baseline, including more varieties of cannabis flower, hash and joints, as well as edibles, vapes and concentrates. The average menu price of cannabis flower decreased more in intervention municipalities than in comparison municipalities, while the average price of hash increased. Visitors in intervention municipalities also reported a more positive assessment of the price-to-quality ratio of cannabis flower.
It is too early, however, to draw conclusions about the effects of the experiment on coffeeshop visits, frequency of cannabis use, perceived health, problematic use, quality of life, safety or the illicit cannabis market. Stakeholders reported initial challenges, particularly concerning the availability and diversity of regulated hash, administrative demands associated with the track-and-trace system, and uncertainties in regulations for newer products such as edibles and vapes. Further annual measurements will be conducted to assess whether these early developments persist and to draw conclusions about the longer-term effects of the experiment.
The annual monitoring findings, together with a broader evaluation planned approximately 2.5 years after the start of the experimental phase, will inform decisions about the future of Dutch cannabis policy.
Office Director, RAND Europe Netherlands, Senior Research Leader
Senior Analyst
Codirector, RAND Drug Policy Research Center; Senior Policy Researcher, RAND; Professor of Policy Analysis, RAND School of Public Policy
Ph.D. Candidate, RAND School of Public Policy, and Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND
Junior Analyst
