Drug Policy Research Center Hot Topic: Marijuana Legalization

The RAND Drug Policy Research Center is a non-partisan research center dedicated to providing objective analysis and research to decisionmakers. We do not have an official policy position on marijuana reform and more generally RAND does not advocate for or against legislation at any level of government.

But for more than 25 years, RAND researchers have published articles and studies that will be useful for those making decisions about marijuana policy. Here we summarize some of these studies and provide links to the publications (some journal articles may require subscription). This is not an exhaustive list of RAND's marijuana-related publications and we encourage readers to visit http://dprc.rand.org for more information.

Commentary

Books

Policy and Law

• Medical Marijuana Laws and Adolescent Marijuana Use in the United States: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis 2018

  Current evidence does not support the hypothesis that US medical marijuana laws until 2014 have led to increases in adolescent marijuana use.

• Recreational Cannabis: Minimizing the Health Risks from Legalization 2017

  Legalizing recreational use of marijuana comes with a host of policy decisions, including how to regulate the supply, pricing, and access to the drug, and how to approach public health messaging on substance abuse prevention.

• Association of State Recreational Marijuana Laws with Adolescent Marijuana Use 2017

  After recreational marijuana laws were passed, perceived harm associated with marijuana use decreased among students in 8th and 10th grades in Washington state and use increased; neither perception nor use changed in Colorado after legalization.

• Regulating Medical Marijuana Markets: Insights from Scientific Evaluations of State Experiments 2017

  Testimony presented before the Florida House of Representatives Health & Human Services Committee, Subcommittee on Health Quality on January 25, 2017.

• Considering Marijuana Legalization Carefully: Insights for Other Jurisdictions from Analysis for Vermont 2016

  Debates about the pros and cons of legalizing marijuana should also include detailed discussions of how best to implement legalization.

• Marijuana Legalization, Government Revenues, and Public Budgets: Ten Factors to Consider 2016

  Testimony presented before the Vermont Senate Committee on Finance on January 19, 2016.

• Medical Marijuana Laws and Adolescent Marijuana Use in the USA from 1991 to 2014: Results from Annual, Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys 2015

  Adolescent use of marijuana is associated with adverse later effects, so the identification of factors underlying adolescent use is of substantial public health importance.

• Beyond Prevalence: Importance of Estimating Drug Consumption and Expenditures 2015

  Estimates of both the consumption of illegal drugs and user expenditures are important for informing drug policy development.

• Options and Issues Regarding Marijuana Legalization 2015

  This paper reviews recent changes in marijuana policies and the decisions that confront jurisdictions considering alternatives to traditional marijuana prohibition.

• Considering Marijuana Legalization: Insights for Vermont and Other Jurisdictions 2015

  Marijuana legalization is a controversial and multifaceted issue. This report provides a foundation for thinking about the consequences of different marijuana policy options while being explicit about the uncertainties involved.

• Policy Designs for Cannabis Legalization: Starting with the Eight Ps 2014

  This paper does not address the question of whether cannabis should be legal; it instead focuses on the design considerations confronting jurisdictions that are pondering a change in cannabis policy.

• Words Can Be Deceiving: A Review of Variation Among Legally Effective Medical Marijuana Laws in the United States 2014

  This study seeks to clarify the characteristics of state medical marijuana laws (MMLs) in place since 1990 that are most relevant to consumers/patients and categorizes those aspects most likely to affect the prevalence of use, and consequently the intensity of public health and welfare effects.

• Developing Public Health Regulations for Marijuana: Lessons from Alcohol and Tobacco 2014

  Our goal is not to address whether marijuana legalization is a good or bad idea but, rather, to help policymakers understand the decisions they face and some lessons learned from research on public health approaches to regulating alcohol and tobacco over the past century.

• Marijuana Liberalization Policies: Why We Can't Learn Much from Policy Still in Motion 2014

  Much remains unanswered about the potential effects of marijuana liberalization policies because the most relevant questions have yet to be fully considered and addressed.

• Multinational overview of cannabis production regimes 2013

  This study provides a multinational overview of cannabis production regimes, with a special focus on identifying and describing official statements and/or legal decisions made about production regimes for non-medical and non-scientific purposes.

• Design Considerations for Legalizing Cannabis: Lessons Inspired by Analysis of California's Proposition 19 2011

  How legalizing marijuana would affect consumption and tax revenues will depend on many design choices including tax level, incentives for a continued black market, whether advertising is restricted, and how the regulatory system is designed and adjusted.

• How Might Marijuana Legalization in California Affect Drug Trafficking Revenues and Violence in Mexico? 2010

  Discusses whether legalizing marijuana in California would reduce the revenues of Mexican drug trafficking organizations and related violence.

• Insights on the Effects of Marijuana Legalization on Prices and Consumption 2010

  Testimony presented before the California State Assembly Public Safety Committee and California State Senate Public Safety Committee on September 21, 2010.

• Altered State? Assessing How Marijuana Legalization in California Could Influence Marijuana Consumption and Public Budgets 2010

  Legalizing marijuana in California would lead to a substantial decline in price, but there is much uncertainty about legalization's effect on public budgets and consumption; even minor changes in assumptions lead to major differences in outcomes.

• Legalizing Marijuana: Issues to Consider Before Reforming California State Law 2009

  Testimony presented before the California State Assembly Public Safety Committee on October 28, 2009.

• State Medical Marijuana Laws: Understanding the Laws and Their Limitations 2002

  Attention has been given to the debate regarding allowances for medical marijuana use since the 1996 California and Arizona ballot initiatives.

• Interpreting Dutch Cannabis Policy: Reasoning by Analogy in the Legalization Debate 1997

  The Dutch depenalization and subsequent de facto legalization of cannabis since 1976 is used here to highlight the strengths and limitations of reasoning by analogy as a guide for projecting the effects of relaxing drug prohibitions.

Markets and Prices

• What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs, 2006–2016 2019

  This report updates and extends estimates of the number of users, retail expenditures, and amount consumed from 2006 to 2016 for cocaine (including crack), heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine in the United States.

• After the Grand Opening: Assessing Cannabis Supply and Demand in Washington State 2019

  This report provides detailed information about state-legal cannabis production and sales in Washington, as well as insights about the total amount of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) obtained from legal and illegal sources by Washington residents.

• Marijuana Buyers in the United States, 2010–2014 2018

  Approximately 18.5 million Americans aged 12 or older reported buying marijuana in the past year; they were more likely to be male, report using marijuana for a greater number of days, and report dependence on marijuana.

• Regulating Medical Marijuana Markets: Insights from Scientific Evaluations of State Experiments 2017

  Testimony presented before the Florida House of Representatives Health & Human Services Committee, Subcommittee on Health Quality on January 25, 2017.

• Bayesian Inference for the Distribution of Grams of Marijuana in a Joint 2016

  Analysts need to know how much marijuana is in a joint in order to better understand illicit marijuana markets, the size of potential legalized marijuana markets, and health and behavior outcomes.

• How Big Is the U.S. Market for Illegal Drugs? 2014

  Using data from 2000 to 2010, RAND researchers estimated the number of users, expenditures, and consumption for four illicit drugs: cocaine (including crack), heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine (meth).

• Why Changes in Price Matter When Thinking About Marijuana Policy: A Review of the Literature on the Elasticity of Demand 2014

  Recent debates regarding liberalization of marijuana policies often rest on assumptions regarding the extent to which such policy changes would lead to a change in marijuana consumption and by whom.

• Before the Grand Opening: Measuring Washington State's Marijuana Market in the Last Year Before Legalized Commercial Sales 2013

  This report estimates the total weight of marijuana consumed in Washington state in 2013 -- the last year before legalized commercial sale of marijuana -- in order to provide decisionmakers with baseline information about the size of the state's market.

• High Tax States: Options for Gleaning Revenue from Legal Cannabis 2013

  This Article seeks to broaden the revenue discussion about marijuana legalization with respect to policy goals, types of taxes, and components of revenue.

• Insights About Cannabis Production and Distribution Costs in the EU 2013

  This report demonstrates how cannabis prices increase across the supply chain in the EU as distributors take additional mark ups to compensate themselves not only for shipping costs but also for the risks they assume.

• Estimating the Size of the EU Cannabis Market 2013

  This report generates estimates of retail cannabis expenditure in the EU using new data about cannabis consumption and expenditures from a web survey conducted in seven Member States.

• Bringing Perspective to Illicit Markets: Estimating the Size of the U.S. Marijuana Market 2011

  The authors review two general approaches to drug market estimation--supply-side and demand-side--before turning to a more specific analysis of studies that measure the size of the U.S. marijuana market.

• Risks and Prices: The Role of User Sanctions in Marijuana Markets 2010

  Lowering the legal risks for marijuana users increases the demand for the drug, and consequently, increases prices and profits for drug dealers.

• Estimating the size of the global drug market: A demand-side approach: Report 2 2009

  The report generates country-level consumption and retail expenditure estimates for cannabis, heroin, cocaine, and amphetamine-type substances.

• Marijuana Markets: Inferences from Reports by the Household Population 2006

  There are 400 million retail marijuana purchases in the U.S. each year and the average purchase size is small, about six or seven joints.

• Marijuana and Youth 2001

  For the past 25 years, marijuana has been the most commonly used illicit drug among adolescents.

Criminal Justice

• Criminal Justice Costs of Prohibiting Marijuana in California 2014

  This chapter assesses these previous efforts and describes a bottom-up approach to estimate the criminal justice costs of prohibiting marijuana in California.

• Heterogeneity in the Composition of Marijuana Seized in California 2011

  The chemical compounds found in marijuana deserve more attention as efforts to regulate marijuana for medical and recreational use go forward.

• Racial Differences in Marijuana-Users' Risk of Arrest in the United States 2006

  A recent study of arrest data show that African Americans are 2.5 times more likely to be arrested for marijuana possession offences than Whites.

• Just Cause or Just Because? Prosecution and Plea-Bargaining Resulting in Prison Sentences on Low-Level Drug Charges in California and Arizona 2005

  Examines the characteristics of California and Arizona offenders who ultimately ended up in prison on low-level drug charges.

Outcomes

• Associations Between Young Adult Marijuana Outcomes and Availability of Medical Marijuana Dispensaries and Storefront Signage 2019

  Among young adults in Los Angeles County, living near more MMDs is positively associated with more frequent use of marijuana within the past month and greater expectations of marijuana's positive benefits.

• Using Marijuana, Drinking Alcohol or a Combination of Both: The Association of Marijuana, Alcohol and Sexual Risk Behaviour Among Adolescents 2018

  Adolescents were who used both alcohol and marijuana or alcohol alone were more likely than others to report having both two or more sexual partners and condomless sex in the past month.

• Do Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce Addictions and Deaths Related to Pain Killers? 2018

  States that provide legal access to marijuana through dispensaries experience lower treatment admissions for addiction to pain medication.

• Associations of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms with Marijuana and Synthetic Cannabis Use Among Young Adult U.S. Veterans: A Pilot Investigation 2016

  Post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms among a young adult sample of U.S. veterans were associated with a doubled rate of past-month use of marijuana and lifetime use of synthetic cannabis.

• Alcohol and Marijuana Use Trajectories in a Diverse Longitudinal Sample of Adolescents: Examining Use Patterns from Age 11 to 17 Years 2016

  Greater use of alcohol and marijuana is associated with worse functioning in high school for all youth, but non-white youth report worse outcomes.

• In the Weeds: A Baseline View of Cannabis Use Among Legalizing States and Their Neighbours 2016

  This study describes patterns of cannabis use, the degree of overlap between medicinal and recreational users, and their differential use patterns, modes of consumption and sources of cannabis in legalized states.

• Early Substance Use and Subsequent DUI in Adolescents 2015

  This study longitudinally explores the influence of alcohol and marijuana (AM) use, AM beliefs, and peer and family factors (including familism) on DUI/RWDD in high school.

• Gateway to Curiosity: Medical Marijuana Ads and Intention and Use During Middle School 2015

  Prevention programs need to better explain medical marijuana to youth, providing information on the context for proper medical use of this drug and the potential harms from use during this developmental period.

• Examining Racial/Ethnic Disparities in the Association Between Adolescent Sleep and Alcohol or Marijuana Use 2015

  The current study examines the association between self-reported measures of trouble sleeping, total sleep time (TST), and bedtimes and odds of past month alcohol and marijuana (AM) use in a racially/ethnically diverse sample of adolescents.

• Cannabis Use and Antisocial Behavior Among Youth 2014

  This paper examines a broad set of cannabis use patterns and multiple dimensions of antisocial behaviors and test the empirical importance of two prominent criminological theories -- general strain and social bond -- in explaining associations between cannabis use and antisocial behavior.

• Natural Experiments in a Complex and Dynamic Environment: The Need for a Measured Assessment of the Evidence 2014

  The shift from punitive prohibition to legalizing marijuana at the state (or federal) level may produce a net social benefit.

• Epidemiological Model for Examining Marijuana Use Over the Life Course 2012

  Trajectories of drug use are usually studied empirically by following over time persons sampled from either the general population (most often youth and young adults) or from heavy or problematic users (e.g., arrestees or those in treatment).

• Marijuana Use from Adolescence to Young Adulthood: Multiple Developmental Trajectories and Their Associated Outcomes 2004

  This study used latent growth mixture modeling to identify discrete developmental patterns of marijuana use from early adolescence (age 13) to young adulthood (age 23) among a sample of 5,833 individuals.

• Reassessing the Marijuana Gateway Effect 2002

  The common-factor model has implications for evaluating marijuana control policies that differ significantly from those supported by the gateway model.

Prevention and Interventions

• Measuring Protective Behavioral Strategies for Marijuana Use Among Young Adults 2016

  The Protective Behavioral Strategies for Marijuana scale can assess behaviors in young adults that could help limit negative consequences of marijuana use, which may be useful for intervention and prevention programs.

• A Longitudinal Examination of Alcohol, Marijuana, and Cigarette Perceived Norms Among Middle School Adolescents 2013

  We examined changes in perceived norms of alcohol, marijuana, and cigarettes over a two-year period among a large and diverse sample of 6th and 7th grade youth.

• Peer Influence on Marijuana Use in Different Types of Friendships 2013

  This study examines whether structural features of friendships moderate friends' influence on adolescent marijuana use over time.

• Pilot Test of Project CHOICE: A Voluntary Afterschool Intervention for Middle School Youth 2007

  The current study reports findings from a pilot evaluation of a voluntary alcohol and marijuana intervention for young teens.

• New Inroads in Preventing Adolescent Drug Use: Results From a Large-Scale Trial of Project ALERT in Middle Schools 2003

  School-based drug prevention programs can prevent occasional and more serious drug use, help low- to high-risk adolescents, and be effective in diverse school environments.

• Project ALERT Plus May Leverage the Effect of the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign 2006

  This fact sheet reports lowered use of marijuana among ninth graders exposed to anti-drug messages from the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign along with Project ALERT Plus, a drug prevention curriculum for middle school students.