Project AIR FORCE Research and Commentary

Research

Feb 13, 2026

Evaluating the Impact of Changes to the Air Force Officer and Enlisted Evaluation Systems

In 2023, the U.S. Air Force implemented several changes to the officer and enlisted performance evaluation systems. In this report, the authors document findings and recommendations from their analysis and evaluation of those changes.
Research

Feb 10, 2026

Manpower Analysis to Improve the Functional Alignment and Organizational Structure of Space Training and Readiness Command Headquarters

The U.S. Space Force’s Space Training and Readiness Command does not have the manpower to meet its requirements. To address this, RAND researchers determined its manpower needs, created a model for staffing decisions, and assessed its structure.
Research Summary

Jan 29, 2026

Improving Interoperability with Allies and Partners: Aircraft Maintenance and Base Operating Support

The U.S. Air Force must generate and sustain airpower from dispersed, partner-owned locations. This brief discusses interoperability not as an end state but as a spectrum of cooperation that is tailored to requirements, standards, and capabilities.
Research

Dec 22, 2025

An Initial Assessment of Opportunities for Technology-Enabled Civilian Talent Management in the Department of the Air Force

In this report, authors assess how incorporating artificial intelligence into Department of the Air Force human resources (HR) operations could enhance the efficiency, consistency, and effectiveness of HR processes.
Research

Dec 16, 2025

The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER)

RAND researchers have conceived and prototyped the RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER). This report describes the motivation and theoretical underpinnings behind ROMANCER and provides some notional outputs.
Tool

Dec 16, 2025

The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER): User Guide for Version 1.0

This user guide serves as a companion to the RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER) codebase. It provides a comprehensive understanding of ROMANCER, from initial setup to advanced use and development.
Research

Oct 14, 2025

Improving the Personnel Records Scoring System for Air Force Active-Duty Officers and Enlisted Personnel

The authors expanded the Personnel Records Scoring System prototype to build a suite of tools to help U.S. Air Force talent management stakeholders analyze the career development trajectories of both officer and enlisted personnel.
Research

Sep 30, 2025

A Framework for Setting Special and Incentive Pays in the Department of the Air Force: Motivation, Development, and Analysis to Support the Framework

The authors develop a strategic framework for the Department of the Air Force (DAF) to help it set special and inventive pays in a coordinated, comprehensive manner while aligning them with other pays and the DAF's talent-management goals.
Research

Sep 30, 2025

A Model of Air Force Enlisted Retention: Theoretical Background, Implementation, and Estimates Using Conditional Choice Probability Estimation

The author shows how dynamic military retention models can be estimated using a method that avoids the need to solve dynamic programming problems — and, thus, the significant compute time required to do so.
Expert Insights

Sep 23, 2025

Rethinking Space Force Personnel Reform: A Pragmatic, Agile Path Forward

In this paper, the authors build on Todd Harrison’s call for the transformational reform of the U.S. Space Force personnel system, including normalizing lateral entry and reentry and promoting merit-based career progression.
Research

Sep 10, 2025

Improving Partner Interoperability for U.S. Air Forces in Europe: Base Operating Support and Airfield Recovery

U.S. Air Forces in Europe is pursuing greater interoperability with European partners. The authors reviewed policy and interviewed experts and recommend changes to overcome technical and institutional obstacles to base operating support interoperability.
Research

Sep 10, 2025

Improving Partner Interoperability for U.S. Air Forces in Europe: Aircraft Maintenance and Cross-Servicing

U.S. Air Forces in Europe is pursuing greater interoperability with its European partners. The authors review policy and interview experts, finding both progress and persistent obstacles on F-35 and F-16 efforts.

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Research & Commentary

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All PAF Research & Commentary

Error

Evaluating the Impact of Changes to the Air Force Officer and Enlisted Evaluation Systems

Manpower Analysis to Improve the Functional Alignment and Organizational Structure of Space Training and Readiness Command Headquarters

Improving Interoperability with Allies and Partners: Aircraft Maintenance and Base Operating Support

An Initial Assessment of Opportunities for Technology-Enabled Civilian Talent Management in the Department of the Air Force

The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER)

The RAND Ontological Model for Assessing Nuclear Crisis Escalation Risk (ROMANCER): User Guide for Version 1.0

Improving the Personnel Records Scoring System for Air Force Active-Duty Officers and Enlisted Personnel

A Framework for Setting Special and Incentive Pays in the Department of the Air Force: Motivation, Development, and Analysis to Support the Framework

A Model of Air Force Enlisted Retention: Theoretical Background, Implementation, and Estimates Using Conditional Choice Probability Estimation

Rethinking Space Force Personnel Reform: A Pragmatic, Agile Path Forward

Improving Partner Interoperability for U.S. Air Forces in Europe: Base Operating Support and Airfield Recovery

Improving Partner Interoperability for U.S. Air Forces in Europe: Aircraft Maintenance and Cross-Servicing

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