RAND Global and Emerging Risks

RAND Global and Emerging Risks develops novel methods and delivers rigorous research on catastrophic risks to humanity.

Our initial focus areas include cutting-edge research on the safety of AI systems and synthetic biology, understanding China beyond the military domain, and the broad implications of extreme climate effects.

  • Commentary

    Understanding and Measuring Hype Around Emergent Technologies

    Inaccurate or excessive hype surrounding emerging technologies can have several negative effects. The United States needs a comprehensive approach to understanding and assessing public discourse–driven hype surrounding emerging technologies.

    Feb 28, 2024

  • Report

    The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks

    The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has far-reaching implications across multiple domains, including concern regarding the potential development of biological weapons. Can AI and large language models be misused by nonstate actors in the context of biological attacks?

    Jan 25, 2024

  • Report

    Democracy at Risk?

    Motivated by a worldwide decline in democracy, RAND held an international experts’ conference on democracy and governance programming. The conference aimed to begin a reassessment of allied approaches to supporting democracy internationally.

    Dec 11, 2023

  • Draft

    Securing Artificial Intelligence Model Weights

    As frontier artificial intelligence models become more capable, protecting them from malicious actors will become more important. What are some steps that can be taken now to avoid future problems?

    Oct 31, 2023

  • Report

    Could Artificial Intelligence Be Misused to Plan Biological Attacks?

    Previous biological attacks that failed because of a lack of information might succeed in a world in which AI tools like large language models could bridge that gap. And given the rapid evolution of AI and biotechnology, governmental capacity to understand or regulate them is limited.

    Oct 16, 2023