Strategy

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Within the Center for the Geopolitics of AGI, researchers are developing rigorous frameworks and strategies to address security and stability challenges on the path to and within AGI-enabled worlds. The work includes re-thinking defense planning and military competition in the age of AI, deterrence and great power conflict over advanced AI, U.S. conventional and strategic capabilities in AGI futures, and how underlying shifts in the geopolitical order are impacting and being impacted by tech competition.

Featured Research

Jul 15, 2026

Strategic Autonomy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

This essay argues that the rapid advance of AI will frustrate ambitions for strategic autonomy.

Salman Ahmed, Matan Chorev
Jul 6, 2026

Winning the AI Pentathlon Requires Endurance: The Case for Resilience and Risk Management as Core Elements of Competitive National AI Strategy

Global artificial intelligence (AI) competition is not just a sprint to develop advanced AI but also a marathon to accumulate its net benefits. Resilience is a strategic advantage as AI integration likely will involve persistent disruption.

Brian A. Jackson
Apr 29, 2026

Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations

This paper presents an overview and observations on Breakwater, a game that explores instability risks in the U.S.-China rivalry and race to artificial general intelligence.

Abby Doll, Karl P. Mueller
Apr 27, 2026

The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

The authors describe an artificial general intelligence (AGI) Rideout strategy to avoid geopolitical risks in the race toward and transition to AGI. The strategy prioritizes deterring conflicts and increasing U.S. tech infrastructure resilience.

David R. Frelinger, Karl P. Mueller
Jan 22, 2026

How Artificial Intelligence Could Reshape Four Essential Competitions in Future Warfare

The authors offer a conceptual framework and preliminary assessment of how artificial intelligence could affect four “building block” competitions in military affairs.

Zachary Burdette, Dwight Phillips, Jacob L. Heim, Edward Geist, David R. Frelinger, Chad Heitzenrater, Karl P. Mueller
Nov 17, 2025

Building a U.S. National Strategy for the Artificial Intelligence Era: Drawing Lessons from Six Archetypal Strategies

The authors seek to advance the understanding of an artificial intelligence (AI) national strategy by identifying challenges to AI strategy development, ways to advance U.S. strategic thinking, and no-regret steps for a comprehensive strategy.

Michael J. Mazarr, Anca Agachi
Sep 30, 2025

Evaluating the Risks of Preventive Attack in the Race for Advanced AI

The authors developed a framework of variables that shape pressures for preventive military action, considered how those variables apply to the development of artificial general intelligence, and analyzed three scenarios for preventive military action.

Zachary Burdette, Hiwot Demelash
Sep 24, 2025

The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security

In the papers in this publication, experts in artificial intelligence, international relations, and national security explore how competitive dynamics in the pursuit of artificial general intelligence may shape international security and stability.

Jim Mitre, Michael C. Horowitz, Natalia Henry, Emma Borden, Joel B. Predd, Sarah Kreps, Miles Brundage, James D. Fearon, Karl P. Mueller, Jane Vaynman, Tristan A. Volpe
Jul 17, 2025

Six Ways AI Could Cause the Next Big War, and Why It Probably Won't

Drawing on decades of research about what conditions make wars more or less likely throughout history, we examine six hypotheses about how AI might increase the potential for major interstate war.

Zachary Burdette, Karl P. Mueller, Jim Mitre, Lily Hoak

Strategy

Featured Research

Strategic Autonomy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Winning the AI Pentathlon Requires Endurance: The Case for Resilience and Risk Management as Core Elements of Competitive National AI Strategy

Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations

The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence

How Artificial Intelligence Could Reshape Four Essential Competitions in Future Warfare

Building a U.S. National Strategy for the Artificial Intelligence Era: Drawing Lessons from Six Archetypal Strategies

Evaluating the Risks of Preventive Attack in the Race for Advanced AI

The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security

Six Ways AI Could Cause the Next Big War, and Why It Probably Won't