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HSRD Publications

Harnessing the Power of Science and Technology Communities for Crisis Response September 19, 2022

Patricia A. Stapleton, Daniel M. Gerstein, Henry H. Willis
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has relied on scientific and technical advice to respond to various threats and hazards. To enhance DHS's ability to leverage science and technology communities to support the use of science, technology, innovation, and analytical capabilities during crisis response, RAND researchers offer a conceptual framework and five imperatives for consideration when providing technical support during a crisis.
Joint Requirements Framework for Collaboration at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security September 6, 2022

Suzanne Genc, John Matsumura, William Shelton
To help the U.S. Department of Homeland Security plan and assess joint activities, researchers created a framework consisting of a decision aid incorporating factors to consider when forming joint programs and collaborations, a taxonomy of jointness types, a tool for selecting program types, and recommendations for structuring joint programs for success.
Informality, Violence, and Disaster Risks: Coproducing Inclusive Early Warning and Response Systems in Urban Informal Settlements in Honduras September 2, 2022

Laura E.R. Peters, Aaron Clark-Ginsberg, Bernard McCaul, Gabriela Cáceres, Ana Luisa Nuñez, Jay Balagna, Alejandra Lopez, Sonny Patel, Ronak B. Patel, Jamon Van Den Hoek
This research examines the coproduction of early warning systems linked with response capacities for floods and landslides through the case study of work in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, with a focus on nine urban informal settlements with high levels of territorial gang violence.
Supporting Individual Willingness to Report School Safety Concerns: Findings from the Literature and Interviews with Stakeholders Across the K–12 School Community August 25, 2022

Pauline Moore, Jennifer T. Leschitz, Brian A. Jackson, Catherine H. Augustine, Andrea Phillips, Elizabeth D. Steiner
This report describes threat reporting models available to U.S. kindergarten through 12th-grade schools and how school leaders can support individual decisions to report threats effectively. Through literature review and stakeholder interviews, the authors identified ways to encourage reporting and the relevant challenges schools face.
Harassment and Discrimination on the Basis of Gender and Race/Ethnicity in the FEMA Workforce: 2021 Survey Follow-Up August 24, 2022

Carra S. Sims, Coreen Farris, Terry L. Schell, Miriam Matthews, Barbara Bicksler, Owen Hall, Lisa Wagner
This report presents results of a follow-up survey of Federal Emergency Management Agency employees on workplace harassment and discrimination, employee reporting experiences, and workplace climate. About one in five employees experienced at least one gender-based/sexual or race/ethnicity–based civil rights violation in the year preceding the survey, a substantial decline from 2019 levels.
An Urban Governance Framework for Including Environmental Migrants in Sustainable Cities August 19, 2022

Ilan Kelman, Aaron Clark-Ginsberg
This article proposes an urban governance framework for including environmental migrants in sustainable cities.
What Policy Changes Could Help Save Lives from Illicit Synthetic Opioids Overdose? August 18, 2022

Karen Tandy, David Trone, D. L. McNeal, Rahul Gupta, Bryce Pardo, David Luckey, K. Jack Riley
In this recording of a July 2022 virtual event, experts discuss the findings from the Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking Final Report, and recommendations to reduce lives lost to illicit synthetic opioids. The Commission was established under Section 7221 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020 and was charged with examining aspects of the synthetic opioid threat to the United States.
Preparing for Post-Quantum Critical Infrastructure: Assessments of Quantum Computing Vulnerabilities of National Critical Functions August 18, 2022

Michael J. D. Vermeer, Edward Parker, Ajay K. Kochhar
Researchers assessed quantum computing vulnerabilities in the 55 national critical functions (NCFs) identified by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The researchers evaluated the significant issues affecting each NCF; rated it for urgency, scope, cost per organization, and other mitigating or exacerbating factors; then combined the ratings to rate each NCF's priority for assistance. This report documents their findings.
Securing U.S. Elections: A Method for Prioritizing Cybersecurity Risk in Election Infrastructure August 16, 2022

Quentin E. Hodgson, Edward W. Chan, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, Bryan Boling, Benjamin Boudreaux, Bilyana Lilly, Andrew J. Lohn
Diversity of U.S. election systems means that developing a national picture of cybersecurity risk is challenging; each state and jurisdiction needs to evaluate and prioritize risk in the systems it oversees. Researchers from the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center have developed a methodology for understanding and prioritizing cybersecurity risk in election infrastructure to assist state and local election officials.
Efforts to End a Stalemate in Landslide Insurance Availability Through Inclusive Policymaking: A Case Study in Sitka, Alaska July 28, 2022

Max Izenberg, Aaron Clark-Ginsberg, Noreen Clancy, Lisa Busch, Jacyn Schmidt, Lloyd Dixon
We explored how participatory techniques could overcome one disaster risk financing-related stalemate: the case of landslide insurance in a highly landslide-prone location, Sitka, Alaska.
Climate Adaptation Strategies for National Critical Functions July 28, 2022

Liam Regan, Susan A. Resetar, Andrew Lauland, Joie D. Acosta, Rahim Ali, Edward W. Chan, Richard H. Donohue, Liisa Ecola, Timothy R. Gulden, Chelsea Kolb, et al.
Researchers developed a risk management framework and to assess the risk of climate change to a set of National Critical Functions (NCFs). This tool presents climate adaptation strategies that were identified to mitigate the risks posed by various climate change, including: drought, extreme cold, extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, severe storm systems, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, and wildfire.
Technologies for Primary Screening in Aviation Security July 21, 2022

Amado Cordova
The article examines technologies currently in use and emerging technologies with potential for use in the primary screening of carry-on baggage, checked baggage and air cargo.
Identifying Critical IT Products and Services July 6, 2022

Sasha Romanosky, John Bordeaux, Michael J. D. Vermeer, Jonathan W. Welburn, Aaron Strong, Zev Winkelman
Researchers have identified the software and businesses that provide critical information technology products and services and developed a framework to continue this analysis as technology evolves. Assessing software risk, business risk, and interdependencies among businesses, the authors recognize that highest revenue does not necessarily equal greatest risk.
America's 5G Era: Strengthening Current and Future U.S. Technical Competitiveness in 5G June 30, 2022

Edward Parker, Spencer Pfeifer, Timothy M. Bonds
Fifth-generation telecommunications technology (5G) offers a wide variety of potential applications from industrial automation to virtual reality to connected autonomous vehicles. In this Perspective, authors discuss the global state of play in several aspects of the 5G ecosystem as of June 2020, and raise several issues for policymakers to consider.
Planning for Significant Cyber Incidents: An Introduction for Decisionmakers June 27, 2022

Brodi Kotila, Quentin E. Hodgson, Benjamin Boudreaux, Ian Mitch, Aaron Clark-Ginsberg, Sale Lilly, Kristin J. Leuschner, Tom Wingfield
This report is intended to inform National Critical Function stakeholders about developing actionable contingency plans. It describes contingency planning for a significant cyber incident, focusing on the importance of planning, the process of developing a plan, and options for operationalizing a plan. It summarizes the major concepts that are explored in detail in a separate how-to guide.
Streamlining Emergency Management: Issues, Impacts, and Options for Improvement June 24, 2022

Jason Thomas Barnosky, Andrew Lauland, Michelle E. Miro, Jay Balagna, Liisa Ecola, Soo Kim, Chelsea Kolb, Kristin J. Leuschner, Ian Mitch, Andrew M. Parker, et al.
In research for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, analysts sought ways to streamline, simplify, and strengthen the U.S. emergency management system, assessing how overlap, duplication, and fragmentation could affect implementation and outcomes. They propose options — some broad and transformative and others on a smaller scale — and discuss trade-offs of each.
Guidance on When to Estimate a Future Price Factor: Development of Criteria and Thresholds June 20, 2022

Isaac M. Opper, Priscillia Hunt, Lucas Husted, Jessie Coe, Kathryn A. Edwards, Aaron Strong, Jeffrey B. Wenger
A future price forecast can help the Federal Emergency Management Agency and communities seeking its Public Assistance estimate construction costs. Researchers created a framework, relying on expected per capita damage and rates of in-migration to the area, for determining when such a forecast could be useful.
Future Price Forecasting in the Wake of Large-Scale Disasters: The Case of Puerto Rico After Hurricane María June 17, 2022

Aaron Strong, Jeffrey B. Wenger, Isaac M. Opper, Drew M. Anderson, Kathryn A. Edwards, Kyle Siler-Evans, Jessie Coe, R. J. Briggs
Large-scale disaster recovery projects in isolated areas likely require unique future price forecasting. This brief describes an occupational analysis and model to estimate the effects of recovery on the price of labor, materials, and equipment.
Forecasting Public Recovery Expenditures' Effect on Construction Prices and the Demand for Construction Labor June 17, 2022

Aaron Strong, Jeffrey B. Wenger, Isaac M. Opper, Drew M. Anderson, Kathryn A. Edwards, Kyle Siler-Evans, Jessie Coe, R. J. Briggs
The scale of Puerto Rico's recovery efforts after Hurricane María means that these efforts are likely to fundamentally change Puerto Rico's economy in terms of labor, materials, and equipment. Researchers aimed to develop estimates of future construction costs and build factors that cost estimators can apply to current costs to reflect the future cost of construction. This report documents their approach, data, findings, and recommendations.
Climate Change and Implications for Disasters in the United States: Examples from the Arctic, Caribbean, Northeast, and Gulf States June 10, 2022

Abbie Tingstad, Susan A. Resetar, Jordan R. Fischbach, Jessie Riposo
Climate change is contributing to more frequent and more severe disasters. In this video, three climate researchers discuss climate change and risks for disasters in the United States. They focus on several regions: the Arctic, the Caribbean, the Northeast, and the Gulf states. They examine how climate effects and hazards are affecting communities in the region, ongoing adaptation activities, and remaining needs and opportunities.
America's 5G Era: Balancing Big Data and Privacy June 2, 2022

Jennifer Brookes, James Bonomo, Timothy M. Bonds
The number of automated sensors and devices connected to wireless networks will continue to grow as fifth-generation (5G) wireless networks come online. In this report, researchers discuss how the United States should seek to balance the potential gains of the 5G era with the potential loss of privacy and of control of personal data.
Managing Response to Significant Cyber Incidents: Comparing Event Life Cycles and Incident Response Across Cyber and Non-Cyber Events May 12, 2022

Quentin E. Hodgson, Aaron Clark-Ginsberg, Zachary Haldeman, Andrew Lauland, Ian Mitch
The United States has a long history of preparing for and responding to large-scale incidents affecting public safety and homeland security. However, it does not have comparable experience in responding to cyber incidents. This report examines U.S. processes for non-cyber emergency management and whether U.S. officials can learn from these events to help public and private sector stakeholders improve preparations for response to cyber attacks.
Securing 5G: A Way Forward in the U.S. and China Security Competition April 29, 2022

Daniel Gonzales, Julia Brackup, Spencer Pfeifer, Timothy M. Bonds
This report describes fifth-generation (5G) network security, the 5G supply chain, competition in 5G equipment and mobile device markets, where the United States has security advantages over China, and how to preserve those advantages in the 5G competition between the United States and China. The report provides recommendations for securing 5G networks and mobile devices of the United States, its allies, and foreign partners.
A Risk Assessment of National Critical Functions During COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities April 26, 2022

Andrew Lauland, Benjamin Lee Preston, Kristin J. Leuschner, Michelle E. Miro, Liam Regan, Scott R. Stephenson, Rachel Steratore, Aaron Strong, Jonathan W. Welburn, Jeffrey B. Wenger
This report presents best practices in risk assessment; challenges in implementing the National Critical Function (NCF) risk assessment framework to characterize risk that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses to critical infrastructure; recommendations for improving the framework; and suggestions for further characterizing NCFs' interdependence, vulnerability, and geographic variation to improve risk assessment processes.
Assessing Risk to the National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change April 5, 2022

Michelle E. Miro, Andrew Lauland, Rahim Ali, Edward W. Chan, Richard H. Donohue, Liisa Ecola, Timothy R. Gulden, Liam Regan, Karen M. Sudkamp, Tobias Sytsma, et al.
National Critical Functions (NCFs) are government and private-sector functions so vital that their disruption would debilitate security, the economy, public health, or safety. Researchers developed a risk management framework to assess and manage the risk that climate change poses to the NCFs and use the framework to assess 27 priority NCFs. This report details the risk assessment portions of the framework.

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