Arctic Policy

Both military and commercial activity in the Arctic region are growing, while climate change creates new challenges for Arctic populations, affecting their governments' ability to support them. RAND's holistic knowledge of the region, as well as of broader homeland security and defense issues, enables it to effectively analyze dynamic Arctic challenges.

The Challenge

Arctic nations, including the United States, need to protect their Arctic populations and interests while securing their sovereignty. Operating in this environment requires unique capabilities that can overcome the Arctic's extreme conditions, limited infrastructure, and vast distances. Climate change is making parts of the maritime environment more accessible, but also increasing commercial traffic in still-hazardous waters while accelerating the degradation of infrastructure and buildings ashore. Every Arctic nation except Russia is now a NATO member or applicant, at a time of intense hostility between Russia and NATO states. At the same time, China and other non-Arctic nations are increasingly involved in Arctic affairs. Western nations must manage Arctic competition and cooperation with Russia, a nation with a far greater capacity for Arctic operations, and with China, which is becoming more engaged in the region.

The Coast Guard Cutter Polar Sea breaks ice in the Northern Arctic ocean

Photo by Pamela J. Manns/U.S. Coast Guard

RAND's History

RAND has a long history studying the geopolitical importance and impact of the Arctic. During the Cold War, RAND offered research and analysis to the U.S. government on the operating capabilities of the Soviet Union in the region, identifying potential flashpoints between the two superpowers. Following the end of the Cold War, RAND's focus adapted, focusing on the Arctic's increasing economic activity, climate vulnerabilities, governance challenges, and broader security concerns.

Mission Support

RAND brings an array of analytic and methodological capabilities to bear to help the homeland security enterprise address the ever-evolving challenges and opportunities present in the Arctic.

Analysis of how changing aspects of the Arctic's physical and human environments are influencing demand for government presence and support in the region;
Assessment of what unique capabilities are required for Arctic operations;
Characterization of homeland security shortfalls and recommendations for how to address them;
Analysis of Arctic geopolitics involving allies, partners, and competitors, exploring ways in which different actors can collaborate and manage competition;
Analysis of how U.S. services and agencies, as well as their counterparts in allied and partner nations, can collaborate on Arctic issues. On this page, you'll find a sampling of recent work on this topic, curated specifically for the homeland security community. RAND also conducts research and analysis on a variety of similar topics, including other issues for the U.S. Coast Guard and other military services, European nations' security challenges, climate change, and geopolitical competition.
Characterizing how various socio-demographic, economic, political, technological, and climatic change converge to influence regional outcomes