RAND Europe Spotlight: 2020-2021

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Spotlight 2020-2021

Last year brought what often felt like an avalanche of challenges. The global COVID-19 pandemic caused devastating personal, social, and economic consequences; extreme weather events underscored the impact of climate change; acts of racial injustice laid bare tensions and inequalities; and political turbulence highlighted a growing polarisation and erosion of trust in civic institutions. Yet, to move forward and restore resilience, sustainability, and justice to our communities, we must put lessons learned into practice. Evidence and objective analysis are needed to find lasting, effective solutions to these wicked problems.

At RAND Europe, we want our research to be integral to forming workable solutions. This year’s Spotlight highlights selected projects that responded to challenges arising from COVID-19, including a macroeconomic model to analyse ‘vaccine nationalism’ impacts; rapid research on providing high-quality healthcare under COVID-19 constraints; and finding ways to tackle domestic violence, which increased during lockdowns.

We also responded to other policy challenges beyond the pandemic. This issue of Spotlight features, for example a machine-learning model to fight online disinformation; a framework to assess climate change challenges systematically; and an analysis of emerging cybercrime threats.

Our goal is to provide high-quality research and analysis that can improve people’s lives. In 2021, we have ambitious plans to broaden RAND Europe’s impact by exploring how philanthropic gifts could allow us to examine new and cross-cutting areas of policy importance. We are excited by the opportunities this will create to build on our existing issue-based work and deliver deeper insights for our stakeholders and wider society.

— Hans Pung

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References for Spotlight 2020-2021

The cost of COVID-19 vaccine nationalism

COVID-19 and the cost of vaccine nationalism
Without a vaccine, the worldwide economic impact of COVID-19 could be $3.4 trillion a year. But even when a vaccine is available, an unequal allocation of COVID-19 vaccines could cost the global economy up to $1.2 trillion a year in GDP.

Domestic violence: What makes witnesses intervene?

What factors encourage witnesses of intimate partner violence to help?
Numerous factors discourage witnesses of intimate partner violence to report to the police or other relevant authorities. Strengthening protection for witnesses and including the option to report anonymously may help encourage witnesses to help.

Democracy depends on hearing all voters’ voices

The benefits and drawbacks of remote voting solutions
RAND Europe and Open Evidence examined the extent to which remote voting solutions—particularly internet voting—are employed in the European member states. The research identified the costs, risks and challenges associated with seven remote voting options.

Weather warning: How climate change may impact defence and security

Implications of climate change for UK defence and security
Looking to 2035, the Ministry of Defence could play a key role in developing robust policy and programming on climate change. Researchers identified six high-level recommendations to support the MOD in developing an approach to address climate-related issues.

Using big data to measure migration

Measuring migration using big data
Researchers from five organisations collaborated in an effort to use social media data to develop models for estimating real-time migration flows and stocks of migrants in the EU. They were successful in applying a groundbreaking migrant stock model, but the approach for estimating EU mobility flows remains a work in progress.

Northern alliance: How Norway’s NATO allies see it

Deterrence and defence in NATO's north
Key NATO allies regard Norway as being able to ‘punch above its weight’ in the North Atlantic and High North regions, but Norway does face pressing political, strategic, and military challenges, as well as wider security threats to societal resilience.

Priced Out? Estimating the Cambridge affordability gap

Estimating the housing affordability gap in the Cambridge travel-to-work area
Cambridge Ahead asked RAND Europe to examine housing affordability in the Cambridge travel-to-work area. Researchers found that almost half of the households living in this area would financially struggle to live in Cambridge itself.

THIS evidence can improve healthcare

The Healthcare Improvement Studies (THIS) Institute
The Healthcare Improvement Studies (THIS) Institute is a ten-year effort to create a world-leading scientific asset for the NHS by strengthening the evidence-base for improving the quality and safety of healthcare. RAND Europe is a key partner, investigating what works in improving healthcare, what doesn’t, and why.
Examining the use of Paediatric Early Warning Systems in the UK
A diverse range of paediatric early warning (PEW) systems are commonly used across the UK, particularly in acute settings. A review of their use uncovered a growing interest amongst some healthcare decisionmakers in the potential of using a standardised system.
Reviewing the use and effectiveness of arts-based approaches for public engagement with research
To raise awareness about a research topic, increase research impact, or help inform the research process and direction, taking an arts-based approach may help to engage the public.
What influences improvement processes in healthcare?
Although many healthcare organisations are engaging in activities to improve the quality of healthcare, there are still considerable challenges in doing so. Additional research on quality improvement could help inform a better understanding of how improvements in patient care can be achieved and sustained.

Investigating the future of cybercrime

Technology and the future of cybercrime
To prepare for and mitigate the impact of emerging technologies on cybercrime, Estonia could consider broad anti-cybercrime capacity building; seek legal, regulatory and organisational agility; and invest in technological expertise, skills and research.

Targeting early inclusion

Early language intervention shows promise
A randomised controlled trial into the effectiveness of the Nuffield Early Language Intervention found that it appeared to have a positive impact on children’s language skills and that training and support for staff also had a positive effect on children.

Making educated decisions

Discrete choice experiment helps explain teacher retention in England
Results of a stated preference survey of teachers in England show which job characteristics matter most to them and the trade-offs they would be willing to make between pay and other characteristics of the work environment.
Examining the quality of career guidance in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
Surveying 54 secondary schools and colleges and interviewing 10 career guidance service providers, researchers produced a comprehensive picture of how career guidance is provided in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and how these services meet the needs of children and young people.

Using machine learning to fight online trolls

Using machine learning to detect malign information efforts online
Social media is increasingly being used by human and automated users to distort information, erode trust in democracy and incite extremist views. Our research produced a machine learning model that can successfully detect Russian trolls.

Crossing the line

Examining violence against healthcare
RAND Europe explored the nature of violence against healthcare, the impact of this violence, and corresponding interventions on a global scale – the first time an evidence review of this scale has been undertaken in this area.

EmBRACEing new healthcare directions

Birmingham, RAND and Cambridge Evaluation (BRACE) Centre
The Birmingham, RAND and Cambridge Evaluation (BRACE) Centre is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) to conduct rapid evaluations of promising new services and innovations in healthcare.
The impact of vertical integration of health services
In several locations across England and Wales, NHS organisations responsible for managing acute hospitals have also taken over the running of primary care medical practices. Vertical integration is a valuable option to consider when GP practices look likely to fail due to recruitment and financial difficulties, but it is not an option that should be imposed from the top down.
Evaluating collaborations between primary care general practices in the UK
Primary care networks can help GPs run a wider range of services for their patients and make changes that are needed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It will be important to have additional clarification and support around the role of primary care networks in the wider NHS in England.

On the horizon

Using social media data to ‘nowcast’ migration around the globe
Because official statistics can be delayed or fail to correctly capture the full extent of migration, making informed policy decisions can be a challenge. Researchers developed an approach to compute near-real-time migration estimates for Europe and the United States using social media data.
Evaluation design for multiple long-term health conditions programme
Complex evaluations at multiple levels are gathering evidence for Guy’s and St Thomas’ Charity on societal determinants of health such as housing, debt, racism and labour markets. The findings will inform policy to help those most at risk of developing long-term conditions.