Modern conventional warfare is built on a systems-of-systems approach that emphasises speed, persistent surveillance, and networked military capabilities. However, the complexity of these modern systems makes it difficult to distinguish actions in the conventional domain from those in the nuclear domain.
This project explores potential inadvertent escalation risks during a conventional conflict between NATO and Russia arising from the increasing conventional-nuclear entanglement between advanced conventional weapons and their Command, Control, Communications, Computing, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) enablers on the one hand, and nuclear weapons, their delivery systems and enablers on the other hand.
Through the project, RAND Europe applies lessons from the Cold War European theatre and the Western Pacific theatre to the current NATO-Russia European context, to highlight escalation risks for UK and NATO policymakers and experts. It does so by taking both NATO European and Russian sources into account.
Beyond re-examining once again relevant policy and conceptual issues, the project uses scenario-building exercises and experiential wargaming to sensitise current and future generations of UK and NATO policymakers to the risks of conventional-nuclear escalation. It also builds capacity among a new generation of UK analysts who will have to grapple with research and policy issues that defy the previously siloed approaches that kept conventional issues separate from nuclear issues.
Seminar Series: Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence in the Third Nuclear Age
As part of this project, RAND Europe has launched a seminar series that will explore the historical roots and core concepts of nuclear deterrence and strategy, as well as ongoing and future developments with emerging technologies, conventional military planning, intensifying geopolitical competition and nuclear multipolarity. Aimed at early- to mid-career researchers, civilian policymakers and military planners, the series offers a platform for intellectual exchange, historical foundations, fresh perspectives and practical insight into today’s most pressing deterrence challenges.
Each session will include:
Expert presentations from RAND specialists and leading external voices
Open discussion and knowledge-sharing across disciplines
Exploration of contemporary and foundational deterrence issues.
If you would like to hear about any upcoming seminars, please contact nucleardeterrencefeedback@randeurope.org and ask to join the mailing list.
This series is organised by RAND Europe and supported by the UK Defence Nuclear Organisation (DNO).
Session Twelve: Learning to Live Dangerously: India-Pakistan Crises in the Nuclear Era, 29 April 2026
Christopher Clary examined the history of India-Pakistan rivalry in the nuclear era, with a particular focus on developments under Modi since 2014. The talk explored how both states have developed coercive and military options to pursue security and domestic political goals without triggering full-scale war.
Session Eleven: Command and Control in Regional Nuclear Powers, 08 April 2026
Drawing on original interviews and archival research, David Arceneaux explored how nuclear command and control systems vary across states. He also considered what these differences mean for strategic stability and nuclear risk.
Session Ten: Deterrence and Escalation on the Korean Peninsula, 25 March 2026
Ankit Panda explored the changing military balance on the Korean Peninsula in response to North Korea’s growing nuclear threat. The talk examined South Korea’s expanding conventional capabilities and the implications of shifting U.S. strategic priorities for deterrence and escalation.
Session Nine: U.S. Nuclear Strategy and the Future of Extended Nuclear Deterrence, 11 March 2026
Vipin Narang discussed the role of extended nuclear deterrence in U.S. strategy, from its historical foundations to its place in today’s changing global order. The talk considered what makes these guarantees credible and why they matter to allies.
Session Eight: Hybrid warfare: Western and non-Western approaches, 25 February 2026
Kris Stoddart examined how hybrid warfare has been understood and practised in both Western and non-Western contexts. Looking across land, sea, air, space and cyber, the talk explored how different traditions of military thought shape the way contemporary conflict is understood.
Session Seven: Evolution of Russian Deterrence Theory and Strategy, 12 November 2025
Dima Adamsky explored the evolution of Russian nuclear doctrine, posture and strategic culture from the Soviet period to the present day. The talk examined modernisation, strategic innovation in the 2010s and the implications of the war in Ukraine for Russian nuclear thinking.
Session Six: China’s Changing Nuclear Forces: Capabilities, Doctrine, and Risks in a Future Conflict, 29 October 2025
Dr. Fiona Cunningham explored China’s nuclear doctrine and forces since 1964, addressing the potential motivations behind China’s recent buildup, the risks of inadvertent escalation in a US-China conflict, and ongoing challenges in bilateral risk reduction and cooperation.
Session Five: British Nuclear Doctrine: Origins and Implementation, 15 October 2025
Prof. Matthew Jones focused on the development of British nuclear strategy, highlighting key concepts shaping UK policy, including ‘independence in concert’ with allies, the ‘second centre of decision’ rationale, and evolving national criteria for deterrence, with particular attention to the Cold War period.
Session Four: Is France ready for the third nuclear age? 01 October 2025
Héloïse Fayet examined French nuclear doctrine, its historical foundations and current debates over its role in European security. The session explored France’s independent deterrent, its adaptation to changing threats, and the implications of shifting U.S. and Russian postures for the credibility and future of French nuclear policy.
Session Three: U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Strategy: Legacy Concepts in a New Era, 17 September 2025
Dr. Brad Roberts traced the evolution of U.S. nuclear deterrence strategy from the Cold War to today’s multidomain challenges. The discussion assessed how traditional concepts address emerging threats, including China’s rise, Russian and North Korean advances, and the persistence of multipolar rivalry, concluding with reflections on the need for renewed strategic adaptation.
Session Two: Nuclear Strategy by Consensus: NATO and Nuclear Weapons, 1949-2025, 09 July 2025
Dr. Jeffrey Michaels traced the evolution of NATO’s nuclear strategy from the Alliance’s founding in 1949 through to the present day. He examined key Cold War debates and decisions, post-Cold War drawdown, the strategic reawakening following 2014, and the enduring continuity in NATO’s nuclear posture, concluding with reflections on future challenges and directions for the Alliance’s deterrence strategy.
Session One: Foundations of Nuclear Deterrence: concepts, logics and paradoxes, 11 June 2025
Dr. Paul van Hooft introduced the core concepts and strategic debates that shape nuclear deterrence thinking. He explored how nuclear weapons transformed global security, U.S. grand strategy and European defence, covering foundational ideas like strategic stability, second-strike capability and the stability–instability paradox.
