Climate Change as a Security Threat

Climate hazards are a growing national security threat, posing risks to DoD installations and personnel and as an emerging driver of potential conflicts in regions across the globe.

NSRD research helps national security decisionmakers prepare more effectively for the dynamic impacts of climate change on geopolitics and U.S. military operations. In addition to analyzing climate mitigation and force adaptation and resiliency, NSRD’s climate change portfolio is breaking new ground with its examination of how climate hazards are shaping the international security environment.

Some of NSRD’s recent cross-cutting research questions focused on the security implications of climate change include:

• How will climate change impact the international environment and U.S. national security?
• How and to what degree does climate change present a risk to readiness in selected theaters of operations, and what analytical capabilities are needed to help assess the extent of likely risk to readiness in the next 10 to 15 years and beyond?
• How can DoD compare damage costs against resilience investment costs for climate-driven natural hazards?
• How might climate responses and transitions of other nations generate geopolitical risk, and which of those risks might DoD be most exposed to?

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  Wargaming Climate Change: A Structure for Incorporating Physical and Social Effects into Strategic Military Planning

  The authors of this paper summarize insights about approaches for understanding the implications of climate change in a national security context through the use of analytic gaming.

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  Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command

  Adapting to climate change presents the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) with an opportunity to build partner resilience to climate hazards with the benefits of strengthening partnerships within the CENTCOM coalition and mitigating conflict risk.

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  Incorporating Environmental Considerations into Defense Acquisition Practices

  The impacts of climate change are increasingly perceived as a national security threat. RAND researchers assess the knowledge, tools, and capabilities needed by the acquisition workforce to infuse environmental considerations into U.S. Department of Defense decisionmaking.

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  How Does Climate Change Affect Force Readiness?

  Droughts, flooding, wildfires, and tropical storms are likely to become more severe as global temperatures rise. Understanding the links between climate and readiness can help the U.S. military ensure that forces are able to reliably and affordably sustain readiness in a changing climate.

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  How Can DoD Compare Damage Costs Against Resilience Investment Costs for Climate-Driven Natural Hazards?

  U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) installations have been affected by extreme weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and severity because of climate change. DoD sets priorities for investing in installation resilience to adapt to these climate hazards. This report focuses on assessing methods that compare the damage costs resulting from extreme weather events against the costs of enhancing installation resilience.

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  China's Gambit in the Pacific

  The geostrategic dynamics between China, the Pacific Island countries, and the United States and its allies and partners have evolved over the years. What are China's strategic goals for the region? And how could the United States improve its profile as China continues to try to enhance its own?

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  Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance

  Conditions in the Arctic region are evolving, driven by such factors as climate change, economics, and geopolitics. What are the risks that come with these changes—and how could governance in the Arctic adapt to mitigate them?

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  Governing Geoengineering Research - A Political and Technical Vulnerability Analysis of Potential Near-Term Options

  Geoengineering is risky, but could transform the portfolio of options for limiting future climate change. Some geoengineering approaches could prove fast acting and inexpensive and could be deployed by one or a few nations without global cooperation. This report provides an initial examination and comparison of the risks associated with alternative international approaches the United States might pursue to governing geoengineering research and deployment.