Wargaming Climate Change

A Structure for Incorporating Physical and Social Effects into Strategic Military Planning

Abbie Tingstad, Flannery Dolan, Bryan Rooney, David A. Shlapak, Stephen M. Worman, Emily Yoder

Expert InsightsPublished Aug 15, 2024

The authors of this paper summarize insights about approaches for understanding the implications of climate change in a national security context through the use of analytic gaming. These reflections are based on experience that has been developed while gaming climate change for the U.S. Department of Defense. There are multiple sources of climate information and data that are available to the defense gaming community, but using these sources effectively requires knowledge of how to obtain them and their respective benefits and limitations. Wargames focusing on or including climate change can serve purposes from concept development to education to engagement. Climate information and data can be used to shape assumptions, model starting conditions, create crisis narratives, move scene-setters, and make final adjudications.

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Tingstad, Abbie, Flannery Dolan, Bryan Rooney, David A. Shlapak, Stephen M. Worman, and Emily Yoder, Wargaming Climate Change: A Structure for Incorporating Physical and Social Effects into Strategic Military Planning, RAND Corporation, PE-A470-1, August 2024. As of September 17, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA470-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Tingstad, Abbie, Flannery Dolan, Bryan Rooney, David A. Shlapak, Stephen M. Worman, and Emily Yoder, Wargaming Climate Change: A Structure for Incorporating Physical and Social Effects into Strategic Military Planning. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA470-1.html.
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This work was sponsored by the Joint Staff, J-8 Force Structure, Resources, and Assessment Directorate, and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division.

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