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  • RAND Weekly Recap

    Blog

    U.S. Cooperation with China and Russia, Artificial Intelligence, War in Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on U.S. security cooperation with China and Russia, artificial intelligence, consequences of Russia's war in Ukraine, and more.

    Mar 10, 2023

  • Report

    Report

    Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications

    The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.

    Mar 9, 2023

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, March 8, 2023, photo by Ilya Pitalyov/Sputnik via Reuters

    Commentary

    What Will Putin Do Next?

    Vladimir Putin faces no elections, no party or state institutions that threaten his rule, no domestic political opposition. He is not moved by humanitarian crises or overly concerned about international condemnation. The longer the war drags on, the more risks Putin might be willing to take to meet his objectives. What might he do next?

    Mar 9, 2023

  • A Ukrainian flag flutters in the wind affixed to a tank overlooking Bakhmut, Ukraine, January 10, 2023, photo by Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

    Commentary

    Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The End and Beyond

    We don't know yet know how the war in Ukraine may end. Despite heavy casualties, neither side is visibly falling apart or appears ready to back down. While no scenario can be excluded, the unequal strategic situation pushes future war scenarios toward variations of a stalemate.

    Mar 8, 2023

  • An employee walks past a part of Gazprom's Power Of Siberia gas pipeline at the Atamanskaya compressor station outside the far eastern town of Svobodny, in Amur region, Russia, November 29, 2019, photo by Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

    Commentary

    Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout

    Before Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war in Ukraine contributed to slowed economic growth in 2022 and a slowed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What are the broader consequences for the global economy?

    Mar 7, 2023

  • The Foreign Ministers of Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine meet for talks at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Turkey, March 10, 2022, photo by Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect

    Commentary

    Ukraine Should Not Close Off Routes to the Negotiating Table

    Ukraine and Russia will probably eventually return to the table—perhaps not this month or even this year—and therefore it is important to debate ideas for how to get there, not to dismiss them.

    Mar 7, 2023

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu shake hands at a meeting in Ankara, Turkey, June 8, 2022, photo by Umit Bektas/Reuters

    Commentary

    Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans

    Turkey is navigating a narrow path between its NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia. The Western Balkans remain an arena of competition between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements. It's not clear how events might play out, but there are indications and track records.

    Mar 6, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap

    Blog

    A Look Back at the War in Afghanistan, National Secuirty Risks, Hospice Care: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on why the United States “stayed the unfavorable course” in Afghanistan, the Ohio train derailment, state data on gun deaths, and more.

    Mar 3, 2023

  • Flags fly outside NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, November 16, 2022, photo by Yves Herman/Reuters

    Commentary

    Consequences of the War in Ukraine: NATO's Future

    Security issues have again become paramount among NATO members, making the alliance far more relevant. But NATO's southeastern flank is soft and the war in Ukraine has exposed its fault lines.

    Mar 2, 2023

  • Ukrainian soldiers prepare a tank for combat in the fronlines of Bakhmut, Donbass, December 11, 2022, photo by Celestino Arce/Reuters

    Commentary

    What Does Russia's War on Ukraine Mean for the International Order?

    Russia's war on Ukraine has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. It has also highlighted the West's role as a major protector of the democratic world.

    Mar 2, 2023

  • Close-up of soldier holding a phone and looking at social mesia posts, U.S. Army photo

    Commentary

    The Ukrainian Army Is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

    Much has been said about Ukraine's astounding success in the information battlefield. How might the U.S. military emulate Ukraine's success to not only help win wars, but also to address its flagging campaign to recruit new members?

    Mar 1, 2023

  • Russian service members take part in a ceremony to receive new off-road vehicles and basic needs kits for soldiers fighting on the front line in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, February 19, 2023, photo by Sergey Pivovarov/Reuters

    Testimony

    Russian Military Operations in Ukraine in 2022 and the Year Ahead

    Russia's combat potential is diminished due to its staggering losses in the first year of the war. Now it's trying to overcome these deficits with mobilization and brute-force tactics. Ukraine will need continued Western support as Russia digs deep into its reserves.

    Feb 28, 2023

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin at a training center for mobilised reservists, in Ryazan Region, Russia, October 20, 2022, photo by Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via Reuters

    Commentary

    Consequences of the War in Ukraine: A Bleak Outlook for Russia

    Whatever may happen in Ukraine or in Russia, things will never be the same. A Russian failure in Ukraine could lead to escalation and a world-changing wider war, or it could lead to dramatic changes within Russia. Either outcome would make for a very different world.

    Feb 28, 2023

  • Russian reservists recruited to support the military campaign in Ukraine walk towards a banner with a portrait of Russian President Putin during a ceremony before their departure in Omsk, Russia, January 6, 2023, photo by Alexey Malgavko/Reuters

    Commentary

    Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Escalation

    If Russian forces remain unable to defeat Ukraine, and Putin remains unwilling to back down, what escalation options does Russia have left?

    Feb 27, 2023

  • RAND Weekly Recap

    Blog

    One Year of Russia's War in Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on the one-year anniversary of Russia's war in Ukraine: What has stood out to RAND experts so far? And what are they watching as the conflict continues?

    Feb 24, 2023

  • A Ukrainian national flag flutters near buildings destroyed by Russian military strikes in Borodianka, Ukraine, February 15, 2023, photo by Gleb Garanich/Reuters

    Commentary

    Consequences of the War in Ukraine

    One year ago, Russian ground forces, following a lengthy military buildup, invaded Ukraine. Today, the war continues, with no clear end in sight. How does this end?

    Feb 24, 2023

  • A pair of Ukrainian Su-25 jet fighters fly low near the town of Kramatorsk, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, June 24, 2022, photo by Marko Djurica/Reuters

    Commentary

    The Political Dilemma May Be Just the Tip of the Iceberg for Europe When Deciding Whether to Send Fighter Jets to Ukraine

    Supplying military equipment to another country's forces can be far from straightforward. The logistical, operational, and technical considerations are immensely complex, and any offer made by NATO allies to Ukraine might best come with a credible plan for deployment and effect—not just a cheque that cannot be cashed.

    Feb 24, 2023

  • A Russian service member stands at a combat position on the left bank of the Dnipro river in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, November 26, 2022, photo by Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

    Commentary

    Russian Troops Know How Little They Mean to Putin

    Over the past year, the Russian military has sustained staggering losses—over 100,000 casualties, thousands of pieces of armored equipment, and several squadrons of fighter jets and helicopters. But Russia isn't stopping. Newly mobilized Russian troops, knowing they are being used as cannon fodder, have made public appeals to be spared.

    Feb 23, 2023

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin at a training center in Ryazan Region, Russia, October 20, 2022, photo by Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik via Reuters

    Commentary

    The Three Vladimir Putins

    What happens next in the war in Ukraine depends almost exclusively on the mindset, will, and decisions of Vladimir Putin. The various descriptions of Putin suggest three different characters: strongman Putin, messianic Putin, and rational Putin. We may take more comfort in the last. We probably shouldn't.

    Feb 22, 2023

  • A residential building damaged by a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the town of Chuhuiv, Kharkiv region, Ukraine, December 2, 2022, photo by Vitalii Hnidyi/Reuters

    Multimedia

    How Russia's war in Ukraine has evolved after one year of fighting

    Senior Historian Gian Gentile, associate director of RAND Arroyo Center, joins host John Dickerson on CBS News

    Feb 21, 2023