National Security Research Division

  • How the Intelligence Community Could Better Fulfill Its Mission

    Conflict with a near-peer competitor—Russia or China—or war with North Korea or Iran would be a game changer, requiring more resources than the U.S. Intelligence Community currently has. But there are meaningful changes that intelligence leaders could make to better meet future demands.

Blog Posts and Media Coverage

  • The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate

    Dec 11, 2018

    The future of the global jihadist movement is likely to resemble its past, with groups of militants dispersing to new battlefields, from North Africa to Southeast Asia. The Islamic State could become even more dangerous and challenging for counterterrorism forces, as its splinter groups threaten renewed and heightened violence throughout the globe.

  • ISIS's Use of Social Media Still Poses a Threat to Stability in the Middle East and Africa

    Dec 11, 2018

    The importance of social media in projecting violent extremist propaganda and recruiting foreign fighters is well documented. As ISIS attempts to regroup and recuperate, investigating its strategic use of information and communication technologies in its communication with civilians could be important to understanding the group's plans to regain territorial control.

  • NATO Needs a European Level of Ambition

    Dec 10, 2018

    As NATO finalizes its new political guidance designed to shape future military forces, it has the chance to both strengthen Europe’s commitment to burden-sharing and relieve American concern about the creation of a new European Army. Building an enhanced European capacity within NATO entails some risk, but the benefits may outweigh concerns.

  • No Russian Let-Up on Ukraine

    Dec 7, 2018

    Moscow's seizure of Crimea and war in eastern Ukraine have led the West to sanction Russians and expand aid to Ukraine, and NATO to shift land and air forces eastward. Expanded Russian coercion may draw more NATO naval power closer to Russia’s shores and lead to tougher sanctions.

  • Sino-Japan Rapprochement Will Likely Fail

    Dec 7, 2018

    Recent meetings and otherwise relative calm between China and Japan may give the impression that their ties are improving. But because of their strategic competition and fundamental differences, it is more likely than not that their current rapprochement will fail.

  • Is Japan's New Defense Plan Ambitious Enough?

    Dec 6, 2018

    Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan has significantly increased capabilities to meet increasing regional security challenges. But Tokyo may need to do more to manage the complex security environment surrounding Japan.

Recent Publications