Using insights from computer science, Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely.
This report examines how U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) planners could use operations, activities, and investments in the coming decades to address security threats related to stressors from climate change in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Karen M. Sudkamp, Elisa Yoshiara, Jeffrey Martini, Mohammad Ahmadi, Matthew Kubasak, Alexander Noyes, Alexandra Stark, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Ryan Haberman, Erik E. Mueller
As climate change increasingly disrupts human and natural systems, this report presents analysis and characterizes how climate hazards could affect the physical and security environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Karen M. Sudkamp, Jeffrey Martini, Emily Allendorf, Mohammad Ahmadi, Carlos Calvo Hernandez, Nathan Chandler, Flannery Dolan, Derek Grossman, Ryan Haberman, Maggie Habib, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Matthew Kubasak, Michelle E. Miro, Erik E. Mueller, Alexander Noyes, Karishma V. Patel, Benjamin J. Sacks, Howard J. Shatz, Alexandra Stark, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Mark Toukan, Stephen Watts, Elisa Yoshiara
This report presents an analysis of how U.S. competitors and adversaries — China, Russia, and Iran — could attempt to exploit climate-related conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in future decades.
Nov 29, 2023
Howard J. Shatz, Karen M. Sudkamp, Jeffrey Martini, Mohammad Ahmadi, Derek Grossman, Kotryna Jukneviciute
Using the concept of national identity as a starting point, RAND researchers developed a framework in an effort to illuminate the underlying causes of Russian manipulation, Ukrainian resistance, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Nov 29, 2023
Clint Reach, Ryan Bauer, Alyssa Demus, Khrystyna Holynska
These proceedings present insights that experts of Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and U.S. security policies presented at RAND Corporation–hosted virtual conferences that explored relevant issues on the U.S.-Japan alliance regarding strategic competition.
This report summarizes reexamined RAND tabletop exercises involving Russia from the past eight years in a review of wargaming methods and analysis and presents implications for future potential conflicts involving major powers.
Nov 21, 2023
Gian Gentile, John C. Jackson, Karl P. Mueller, D. Sean Barnett, Mark Hvizda, Bradley Martin, David A. Ochmanek, Clint Reach, Barry Wilson
The U.S.-China rivalry is intensifying, causing a high level of mistrust and stifling the impacts of Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues. A new Track 2 initiative is needed to design a shared future and stem the decline in U.S.-China relations.
This logic model is intended to help characterize the impact of Non-Lethal Weapons (NLWs) within the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and is based on a RAND project that assessed the impact of diverse Intermediate Force Capabilities (IFCs).
Nov 20, 2023
Krista Romita Grocholski, Scott Savitz, Nancy Huerta, Alyson Youngblood, Jonathan P. Wong, Sydney Litterer, Raza Khan, Monika Cooper
The authors assess the quantum industrial bases of several U.S.-allied nations that are major players in the development of quantum technology, beginning with a global look and then focusing on Australia, the UK, Germany, and Japan.
Nov 16, 2023
Edward Parker, Richard Silberglitt, Daniel Gonzales, Natalia Henriquez Sanchez, Justin W. Lee, Lindsay Rand, Jon Schmid, Peter Dortmans, Christopher A. Eusebi
The RAND National Security Research Division hosted a discussion focused on emerging approaches to projecting power against the United States' most capable adversaries and the implications of these new approaches for defense planning.
Nov 14, 2023
Anna Dowd, Clinton Hinote, Andrew R. Hoehn, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Caitlin Lee, Michael J. Mazarr, David A. Ochmanek
The authors generated novel vulnerability life span and software update cadence datasets. Datasets were used to quantify cost and operational time uncertainties, and estimate life-cycle costs of the U.S. Marine Corps Joint Cyber Weapons program.
Public policy has not yet caught up to the rapidly expanding use of artificial intelligence (AI) by both states and private entities. The authors of this paper describe potential futures for the use and regulation of AI.
Nov 3, 2023
Barry Pavel, Ivana Ke, Michael Spirtas, James Ryseff, Lea Sabbag, Gregory Smith, Keller Scholl, Domenique Lumpkin
These conference proceedings capture the industry and government perspectives emerging from a series of workshops in 2023 to inform policymakers and the broader public discussion about artificial intelligence safety and security.
Oct 31, 2023
Gregory Smith, Sydney Kessler, Jeff Alstott, Jim Mitre
The authors explore the potential for bias or sources of inequity related to race or ethnicity, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, or neurodivergence within the security clearance vetting process.
Oct 31, 2023
Sina Beaghley, Jessica Welburn Paige, David Stebbins, Sarah Zelazny, Samantha Ryan, Amy Burnett Cross