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Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare
Using insights from computer science, Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely.
Dec 5, 2023
Edward Geist
Report
Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central Command
This report examines how U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) planners could use operations, activities, and investments in the coming decades to address security threats related to stressors from climate change in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Karen M. Sudkamp, Elisa Yoshiara, Jeffrey Martini, Mohammad Ahmadi, Matthew Kubasak, Alexander Noyes, Alexandra Stark, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Ryan Haberman, Erik E. Mueller
Research Brief
Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command
As climate change increasingly disrupts human and natural systems, this report presents analysis and characterizes how climate hazards could affect the physical and security environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Karen M. Sudkamp, Jeffrey Martini, Emily Allendorf, Mohammad Ahmadi, Carlos Calvo Hernandez, Nathan Chandler, Flannery Dolan, Derek Grossman, Ryan Haberman, Maggie Habib, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Matthew Kubasak, Michelle E. Miro, Erik E. Mueller, Alexander Noyes, Karishma V. Patel, Benjamin J. Sacks, Howard J. Shatz, Alexandra Stark, Zohan Hasan Tariq, Mark Toukan, Stephen Watts, Elisa Yoshiara
Report
Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command: Incorporating Climate Change
This report presents an analysis of the impact of climate change on the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Mark Toukan, Stephen Watts, Emily Allendorf, Jeffrey Martini, Karen M. Sudkamp, Nathan Chandler, Maggie Habib
Report
Pathways from Climate Change to Conflict in U.S. Central Command
This report presents an analysis of the pathways from climate change to conflict and how that relationship is unfolding in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Nathan Chandler, Jeffrey Martini, Karen M. Sudkamp, Maggie Habib, Benjamin J. Sacks, Zohan Hasan Tariq
Report
Mischief, Malevolence, or Indifference? How Competitors and Adversaries Could Exploit Climate-Related Conflict in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility
This report presents an analysis of how U.S. competitors and adversaries — China, Russia, and Iran — could attempt to exploit climate-related conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in future decades.
Nov 29, 2023
Howard J. Shatz, Karen M. Sudkamp, Jeffrey Martini, Mohammad Ahmadi, Derek Grossman, Kotryna Jukneviciute
Report
A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead: An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command
This report characterizes how climate hazards will affect the physical environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility in 2035, 2050, and 2070.
Nov 29, 2023
Michelle E. Miro, Flannery Dolan, Karen M. Sudkamp, Jeffrey Martini, Karishma V. Patel, Carlos Calvo Hernandez
Report
The Limits of Russian Manipulation: National Identity and the Origins of the War in Ukraine
Using the concept of national identity as a starting point, RAND researchers developed a framework in an effort to illuminate the underlying causes of Russian manipulation, Ukrainian resistance, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Nov 29, 2023
Clint Reach, Ryan Bauer, Alyssa Demus, Khrystyna Holynska
Report
U.S.-Japan Alliance Conference: The U.S.-Japan Alliance in an Era of Strategic Competition
These proceedings present insights that experts of Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and U.S. security policies presented at RAND Corporation–hosted virtual conferences that explored relevant issues on the U.S.-Japan alliance regarding strategic competition.
Nov 29, 2023
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Report
Revisiting RAND's Russia Wargames After the Invasion of Ukraine: Summary and Implications
This report summarizes reexamined RAND tabletop exercises involving Russia from the past eight years in a review of wargaming methods and analysis and presents implications for future potential conflicts involving major powers.
Nov 21, 2023
Gian Gentile, John C. Jackson, Karl P. Mueller, D. Sean Barnett, Mark Hvizda, Bradley Martin, David A. Ochmanek, Clint Reach, Barry Wilson
Report
The United States and China—Designing a Shared Future: The Potential for Track 2 Initiatives to Design an Agenda for Coexistence
The U.S.-China rivalry is intensifying, causing a high level of mistrust and stifling the impacts of Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues. A new Track 2 initiative is needed to design a shared future and stem the decline in U.S.-China relations.
Nov 21, 2023
Amanda Kerrigan, Lydia Grek, Michael J. Mazarr
Visualization
Logic Model for Non-Lethal Weapons in the U.S. Department of Defense
This logic model is intended to help characterize the impact of Non-Lethal Weapons (NLWs) within the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and is based on a RAND project that assessed the impact of diverse Intermediate Force Capabilities (IFCs).
Nov 20, 2023
Krista Romita Grocholski, Scott Savitz, Nancy Huerta, Alyson Youngblood, Jonathan P. Wong, Sydney Litterer, Raza Khan, Monika Cooper
Commentary
Improving Behavioral Health Care in the Military Health System: Challenges, Promising Strategies, and Research Directions
The authors highlight opportunities for the Military Health System to improve the quality, access, and equity of behavioral health care for service members.
Nov 16, 2023
Kimberly A. Hepner, Carol P. Roth, Nabeel Qureshi, Jessica L. Sousa
Report
An Assessment of U.S.-Allied Nations' Industrial Bases in Quantum Technology
The authors assess the quantum industrial bases of several U.S.-allied nations that are major players in the development of quantum technology, beginning with a global look and then focusing on Australia, the UK, Germany, and Japan.
Nov 16, 2023
Edward Parker, Richard Silberglitt, Daniel Gonzales, Natalia Henriquez Sanchez, Justin W. Lee, Lindsay Rand, Jon Schmid, Peter Dortmans, Christopher A. Eusebi
Commentary
Select Space Concepts for the New Space Era
In this Perspective, space researchers at the RAND Corporation identify space sustainability, security, and governance concepts that they believe are worthy of future research.
Nov 14, 2023
Bruce McClintock, Dan McCormick, Katie Feistel, Ajay K. Kochhar, Mary Lee, Douglas C. Ligor, Jan Osburg, Henri van Soest, Emmi Yonekura
Multimedia
A New Approach to Power Projection: Reversing the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence
The RAND National Security Research Division hosted a discussion focused on emerging approaches to projecting power against the United States' most capable adversaries and the implications of these new approaches for defense planning.
Nov 14, 2023
Anna Dowd, Clinton Hinote, Andrew R. Hoehn, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Caitlin Lee, Michael J. Mazarr, David A. Ochmanek
Report
Quantifying Vulnerability Lifespans for U.S. Marine Corps Joint Cyber Weapons
The authors generated novel vulnerability life span and software update cadence datasets. Datasets were used to quantify cost and operational time uncertainties, and estimate life-cycle costs of the U.S. Marine Corps Joint Cyber Weapons program.
Nov 14, 2023
Devin Tierney, Bradley Wilson, Hansell Perez, Augustine Bravo, Megan McKernan, Thomas Goughnour
Commentary
AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?
Public policy has not yet caught up to the rapidly expanding use of artificial intelligence (AI) by both states and private entities. The authors of this paper describe potential futures for the use and regulation of AI.
Nov 3, 2023
Barry Pavel, Ivana Ke, Michael Spirtas, James Ryseff, Lea Sabbag, Gregory Smith, Keller Scholl, Domenique Lumpkin
Report
Industry and Government Collaboration on Security Guardrails for AI Systems: Summary of the AI Safety and Security Workshops
These conference proceedings capture the industry and government perspectives emerging from a series of workshops in 2023 to inform policymakers and the broader public discussion about artificial intelligence safety and security.
Oct 31, 2023
Gregory Smith, Sydney Kessler, Jeff Alstott, Jim Mitre
Report
A Diverse and Trusted Workforce: Examining Elements That Could Contribute to the Potential for Bias and Sources of Inequity in National Security Personnel Vetting
The authors explore the potential for bias or sources of inequity related to race or ethnicity, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, or neurodivergence within the security clearance vetting process.
Oct 31, 2023
Sina Beaghley, Jessica Welburn Paige, David Stebbins, Sarah Zelazny, Samantha Ryan, Amy Burnett Cross

All of RAND's National Security Publications

Using AI to Identify Youth Suicide Risk: What Does the Evidence Say?

Disrupting the Chinese Military in Competition and Low-Intensity Conflict

North Korea's Satellite Launch: Part of a Bigger Problem for Kim Jong-un?

Displaced in Gaza: The Least-Bad Option

Preventing Domestic Violent Extremism: Insights from RAND Research

The Policy Currents Podcast

Developing Strategies for Summer Learning

Improving Psychological Wellbeing and Work Outcomes in the UK

Planning for the Rising Costs of Dementia

Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change

NSRD Publications

Deterrence Under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central Command

Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command

Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command: Incorporating Climate Change

Pathways from Climate Change to Conflict in U.S. Central Command

Mischief, Malevolence, or Indifference? How Competitors and Adversaries Could Exploit Climate-Related Conflict in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility

A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead: An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command

The Limits of Russian Manipulation: National Identity and the Origins of the War in Ukraine

U.S.-Japan Alliance Conference: The U.S.-Japan Alliance in an Era of Strategic Competition

Revisiting RAND's Russia Wargames After the Invasion of Ukraine: Summary and Implications

The United States and China—Designing a Shared Future: The Potential for Track 2 Initiatives to Design an Agenda for Coexistence

Logic Model for Non-Lethal Weapons in the U.S. Department of Defense

Improving Behavioral Health Care in the Military Health System: Challenges, Promising Strategies, and Research Directions

An Assessment of U.S.-Allied Nations' Industrial Bases in Quantum Technology

Select Space Concepts for the New Space Era

A New Approach to Power Projection: Reversing the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence

Quantifying Vulnerability Lifespans for U.S. Marine Corps Joint Cyber Weapons

AI and Geopolitics: How Might AI Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations?

Industry and Government Collaboration on Security Guardrails for AI Systems: Summary of the AI Safety and Security Workshops

A Diverse and Trusted Workforce: Examining Elements That Could Contribute to the Potential for Bias and Sources of Inequity in National Security Personnel Vetting

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