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Commentary and Blog Posts on Space Topics

Commentary and Blog Posts on Space Topics

Write to space@rand.org with inquiries about RAND's space work, or to hear about upcoming events.

The Race to Mine the Moon Is On—And It Urgently Needs Some Clear International Rules
Binding international agreements—particularly between the great space powers—which emphasise principles of stewardship, clarify access rights, and support common benefits from lunar development would ensure the Moon becomes a proving ground for the equitable and sustainable development of space.
How Russia Is Intercepting Communications from European Satellites
Russia has been secretly stalking European spacecraft since its invasion of Ukraine in 2014. What can Europe do about it?
Germany's €35 Billion Bet on Military Space Capability
Modern life and national security depend on space, yet satellites remain dangerously exposed to attack. Germany plans to invest €35 billion by 2030 to strengthen its military space capabilities, reduce reliance on others, and safeguard Europe’s role in an increasingly contested domain.
China Is Going to the Moon by 2030. Here's What's We Know and Why It Matters
More than 50 years after humans last walked on the Moon, China is moving steadily toward sending astronauts there by 2030. With advanced rockets, a new spacecraft, and a proven record in space, China's mission could rival NASA's and reshape the future rules and power balance beyond Earth.
Can Brazil Become a Regional Space Power?
Brazil’s space ambitions are constrained by limited infrastructure and resources, relying heavily on international partnerships. To catch up with other powers, it must strengthen these ties while balancing budgets, geopolitics, and sustainable development.
NASA's Artemis II Mission Is Crucial as Doubts Build That America Can Beat China Back to the Moon
Artemis II is the proving ground for America's return to the Moon, testing its ability to sustain its most ambitious program since Apollo and laying the foundation for Mars. Success will reaffirm U.S. leadership in space; failure could cede it to others.
Why the United States Should Not Fear a Space Pearl Harbor
Encouraging trends in technological innovation and defensive countermeasures are increasing the resilience of U.S. satellite constellations against Chinese counterspace attacks.
50:17
How to Prevent Catastrophe in Outer Space
Space is becoming more congested, contested, and competitive. This poses serious risks—from satellites colliding to a major conflict breaking out. How can humanity prevent such a disaster? RAND's Bruce McClintock and Douglas Ligor discuss the need for international space traffic management.
Five Priorities for Advancing NATO's Space Mission
NATO's space efforts have evolved massively since NATO's Space Policy was launched five years ago. By pursuing five priorities, NATO can continue making progress in this critical domain.
Is the Bar Higher for Scientific Claims of Alien Life?
Grandiose headlines often promise proof that we are not alone, but scientists remain cautious. Is this caution unique to the field of astrobiology? In truth, major scientific breakthroughs are rarely accepted quickly.
Telescopes, Not UFOs: Long-Term Investments in Space Science Are the Way to Find Alien Life
Scientists at the University of Cambridge have found what they called the “strongest hints yet” of extraterrestrial life: key chemical signatures in the atmosphere of a distant exoplanet. But despite such remarkable discoveries, funding for space science is under threat. The ability to make further advances cannot be taken for granted.
Mysterious Objects from Other Stars Are Passing Through Our Solar System. Scientists Are Planning Missions to Study Them Up Close
In late 2017, a mysterious object tore through our solar system at breakneck speed. Astronomers scrambled to observe the fast moving body using the world's most powerful telescopes. But what if we could do more than just watch them fly by?
A Defining Year for Space: Why the U.S. and Europe Must Unite or Fall Behind
Space exploration is entering an exciting, but precarious, new phase. By embracing collaboration, security, sustainability, and investment, the United States, Europe, and their allies can not only navigate the challenges ahead but also shape the future of space itself.
Reassessing NASA's Lunar Ambitions
Artemis is more than just a return to the Moon; it is a test of America's ability to sustain long-term space exploration in the face of growing global competition. NASA must ensure that its lunar ambitions are not just bold, but also achievable and safe.
The UK's Space Dreams vs. South Korea's Reality—What Needs to Change?
South Korea's rapid ascent in the space sector proves that commitment, investment, and strategic partnerships can yield remarkable progress in a short time. This successful strategy could be a useful roadmap for UK policymakers.
NATO Space Enterprise: Throttle Up or Fall Short
NATO has made slow, steady progress on space policy for just over a decade. This summer's NATO summit in Washington presents a key opportunity to build on the alliance's nascent space policy and structure at an inflection point for NATO and space power.
The Path to Thoughtful Allied Space Power: Progress on a Steep Road
The road to thoughtful allied space power is steep and requires commitment to make progress. By being forthright about the prospects for cooperation, the United States will enable allies and partners to make choices about their own investments and operations that will strengthen future coalition capabilities.
Assessing the Value of Publicly Funded Earth Observation Programmes in the United Kingdom
Satellite-based earth observation (EO) technologies play a critical role across the world, from monitoring climate change to assessing the situation during crises such as extreme weather events. As the United Kingdom invests in space technology and participates in international agreements, effectively demonstrating the value of these investments remains a top priority.
Looking Back on the Big Policy Stories of 2023
As 2023 draws to a close, RAND president and CEO Jason Matheny highlights areas where RAND is tackling the most urgent and complex problems we face. Each is a small reminder that where there are thoughtful people working tirelessly to find solutions, there is hope.
Encouraging Consistency in National Security Transparency
The United States remains the leader in space in both national security and commercial capabilities. Greater transparency about existing on-orbit systems that are already detected by many is an important next step that could bolster U.S. credibility while also aiding deterrence.
UFO Research Is Only Harmed by Antigovernment Rhetoric
There is an undercurrent of conspiracy theory and, relatedly, antigovernment sentiment brewing around the issue of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP). If it grows, it could prove toxic to any factual and scientific discussion of UAPs.
Speaking in One Voice to Advance Space Acquisition
Space acquisition is hard, and many challenges remain today for development of true unity of effort. But a new “clean sheet” is not the answer. Such an approach simply cannot take the place of doing the hard work required to realize enduring change.
Enter Outer Space at Your Own Risk?
Since 2004, federal law has barred most participant safety regulations and leaves nearly all issues of safety up to the discretion of the company providing the service. It's time to allow the moratorium on regulation to expire and allow the development of safety standards, led by the FAA.
What Might Space Look Like in 2050?
It would not take huge technological breakthroughs to make space and space travel a much bigger part of everyday life. Instead, it would take a steady progression of incremental advances—and one development in particular could provide the tipping point.
The Calls for More Progress on Space Governance Are Growing Louder
Space may seem infinite, but the narrow band that hugs the Earth, where satellites and space stations operate, is not. Existing space treaties won't be enough to keep satellites safe, to prevent crowding and collisions, and to preserve the promise of outer space.
Governance in Space: Mining the Moon and Beyond
Without further cooperation and agreement among space powers, multiple, competing governance systems may end up being established, further increasing potential for conflict. The time to address this issue is now, so that the use of deep-space resources contributes to prosperity, security, and freedom on Earth and throughout the solar system.
Why Not Space Mirrors?
Space mirrors can reflect solar radiation away from Earth, potentially helping to address the effects of climate change. But decisionmakers need more information about this technology to determine if it's a viable option.
Reduce Friction in Space by Amending the 1967 Outer Space Treaty
Space has the potential to be a domain in which current great-power competitions and frictions can be mediated. The international community might consider updating the existing space legal regime to ensure it meets current political, economic, social, and technical challenges.
Russia's Withdrawal from the ISS: Another Sign of Its Space Decline?
Russia's threatened exit from the International Space Station could simply be more bluster from Moscow at a time of heightened tension between Russia and the West over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But it also appears to be another signal that Russia's profile in space is in decline, a trend that is likely to continue and that the United States could be preparing for now.
22:39
Expert Insights: Future Uses of Space
In this Expert Insights podcast, James Black and Linda Slapakova discuss the potential uses of space out to 2050, ranging from defence, manufacturing, climate protection, and tourism.
An Alternative Way to Think About Space Regulation
There are currently no international binding rules that would address growing threats in space. Without more-defined and enforceable rules of war regarding space and space assets, the danger of a destructive conflict in space grows significantly.
U.S. Decision on ASAT Testing a Positive Step Towards Space Sustainability
The United States recently committed not to conduct destructive, direct-ascent anti-satellite missile testing. This sets an important example others might follow and takes an important first step towards a binding, international ban.
Where Chinese Science Fiction and RAND History Meet
Senior policy analyst Sale Lilly read about renowned RAND researcher Bill Mathers in an award-winning Chinese science fiction trilogy—but somehow had never heard of him before.
Satellite Internet Services—Fostering the Dictator's Dilemma?
The ability to provide relatively low cost internet access outside of government control is both a challenge for authoritarian states and an opportunity for democracies. What are low-altitude, low-latency satellites and why are authoritarian states so concerned?
Navigating Norms for the New Space Era
To make better progress on global norms for responsible behavior in space, the U.S. defense and intelligence communities might first consider reaching a consensus among themselves on what these norms should be. Until they reconcile their differences the United States will be less likely be in a position to play a leadership role.
How Joe Biden Can Galvanize Space Diplomacy
The potential for conflicts to originate in outer space, or for terrestrial conflicts to extend there, has grown with the development of counterspace weapons and the explosion of commercial space activity. But previous efforts to establish norms have had limited results. The Biden administration has an opportunity, working with like-minded allies and partners, to galvanize nascent international efforts.
How to Avoid a Space Arms Race
Some 70 countries and multinational organizations own or operate satellites and there are plans for many more. Multilateral cooperative efforts could help set a foundation for the adoption of transparency and confidence measures that offer realistic hope of reducing risks and protecting freedom of access to space for all nations.
How Accurate Were Predictions for the Future?
Anticipating the risks and opportunities posed by all kinds of change is a RAND specialty. In 1964, using RAND's now-famous Delphi method, experts pondered topics like medical advancements, space, artificial intelligence, and controlling the weather.
Protecting the U.S. Supply on Heavy Lift Launch Vehicles
Our recent RAND report on the global heavy lift launch market highlights the potential for a near term shortage of launch vehicles needed to lift U.S. defense and intelligence satellites to orbit. These satellites are the eyes, ears, networks and timekeepers of U.S. armed services, and an inability to launch them in times of need could compromise national security.
Space Safety Coordination: A Norm for All Nations
As space becomes more congested with satellites, the need for every nation to actively participate in the space safety coordination system grows. Most spacefaring countries participate, but a few countries do not—notably, Russia and China. That creates greater potential for collisions and hazards from debris.
Our Reliance on Space Tech Means We Should Prepare for the Worst
Space-enabled connectivity, technology, and services support a diverse array of political, military, and economic activities, many of which modern life on Earth relies upon and which the public often takes for granted. How prepared is global society to deal with the growing reliance on this technology and to mitigate associated risks?
Pursuing the Extraordinary Through Space Exploration
NASA astronaut Dr. Mae C. Jemison delivered RAND's 2018 Haskins Lecture. She discussed how the pursuit of interstellar travel benefits society, the vital role science plays in our lives, and the importance of continued investment in research and technology.
20:01
Pursuit of the Extraordinary
In this Events @ RAND podcast, Dr. Mae C. Jemison, RAND's 2018 Haskins Fellow, discusses why we must consciously pursue an extraordinary tomorrow in order to build a better world today.
Mert Davies: All-Star Pioneer of the Cosmos
Merton Davies spent his early years using satellite imagery to spy on terrestrial targets. His work led to the first successful reconnaissance satellite, Corona. Later, he used deep-space photographs to map the planets in our solar system.
Mining the Moon for Rocket Fuel to Get Us to Mars
Students from around the world participated in the 2017 Caltech Space Challenge. They proposed designs of what a lunar launch and supply station for deep space missions might look like, and how it would work.
The Democratization of Space
A new economic model for outer space must account for lower barriers to entry and the involvement of more and more stakeholders, such as developing countries and start-ups, writes Prof. Bill Welser.
Don't Worry About Russia Backing Away from Space and WMD Cooperation
Two symbols of U.S.-Russian cooperation are nearing the end of their life expectancies, the International Space Station and the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. But both stand as remarkable milestones of achievement and reminders of what can be accomplished when nations put aside political differences for the betterment of humanity.
Space Talk Launches Politics Aside
Hundreds of guests packed the Cary Grant Theatre at Sony Studios to kick off RAND's Politics Aside event with a discussion on space technology, policy, and leadership. Matt Miller, columnist, author, and radio host moderated the panel, which included Simonetta Di Pippo, Director of the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs; George Whitesides, CEO of Virgin Galactic; and NASA astronaut Cady Coleman.
Should the U.S. Rely on Russian Rocket Engines?
One of the two launch vehicles that lift U.S. satellites into orbit depends on a rocket engine made by a company located in Russia. Russia's recent clashes with Ukraine and its claims on the Crimean peninsula have caused friction with the United States and thereby raised questions among U.S. policymakers about the potential for an interruption in the supply of the engines.
Debris Poses Increased Threat to Exploration
Every satellite launch and maneuver is carefully coordinated because some orbits are strewn with the space-based equivalent of blown tires, abandoned vehicles, loose gravel and, of course, other traffic. Earth's orbit is littered with hundreds of thousands of debris objects.

RAND National Security Research Division

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