The RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP) brings together analytic excellence and regional expertise from across the RAND Corporation to address the most critical political, social, and economic challenges facing the Middle East today. Our goal is to inform policy in ways that help improve the security and well-being of people living in the region.
Since 2011, 12 million Syrians have fled their homes, either inside Syria or crossing its borders as refugees. To help shape policy that will improve the lives of refugees and support host communities over the longer term, RAND focuses its work on the greatest challenges related to this crisis: humanitarian assistance, education, jobs, and regional and global security.
This report investigates humanitarian and stabilization needs in Iraq, through a case study of Mosul, and offers recommendations for actions for stabilization after liberation from ISIS. The research team examined humanitarian needs, security implications, infrastructure and services, and governance and reconciliation. All of these activities will affect the immediate stabilization of Iraq and Mosul more specifically, including whether civilians can return home.
This report examines what binds and divides the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years. The study aims to help policymakers better understand intra-GCC dynamics and prepare for future trends in a region with high stakes for U.S. strategic interests.
This Perspective examines how Iranian factional divisions may impact the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany) and the viability of the JCPOA if major events were to occur, such as the death of the supreme leader or heightened U.S.-Iran tensions.
In this third paper in a series addressing Syria's conflict, RAND researchers examine how recent developments in Syria and the region -- including the cessation of hostilities that was sponsored by Russia, Iran, and Turkey -- reinforce the prospects for a national ceasefire based upon agreed zones of control backed by external powers. The authors also propose a plan for international administration of Raqqa province.
Director, Center for Middle East Public Policy; Senior Political Scientist
RAND CMEPP Experts are available to the media on a wide range of topics.
Office of Media Relations
Latest Work
Bringing Back Sanctions Will Hurt U.S. Allies and Iran, but Will It Help the U.S.?
Aug 7, 2018
Kaye @dassakaye
President Trump's added sanctions this week may well force Europe out of Iran and hurt Iran and its people, but the U.S. has nothing to gain. If leaving the Iran deal and attempting a maximum pressure plan does not lead Iran to change its behavior or the regime to collapse, what's next?
Regime Change in Iran: Watch What You Ask For
Aug 2, 2018
Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Mike Pompeo's speech in May signaled a desire for regime change in Iran, but the U.S. will have to change its approach to shape a positive outcome. This could involve targeting sanctions more narrowly rather than seeking to impoverish the general population. And lifting the ban on Iranian visitors to the U.S. would be a good start.
Russia's Wars and Trump
Jul 11, 2018
Clarke @ColinPClarke, et al.
At the July 16 summit in Helsinki, President Trump might stress that the West will persist in imposing costs on Russia for current and any future malign interventions. At the same time, he could offer to work with Putin in the search for peace in Syria and Ukraine if Moscow were to decide to withdraw its forces.
Time to Make a Deal on Syria
Jul 10, 2018
Charap @scharap, et al.
U.S. leverage is much diminished by the Assad regime's recent gains but there are still opportunities for Washington and Russia to achieve a settlement that preserves some U.S. interests. These include maintaining the gains made against the Islamic State and constraining Iranian influence in Syria.
Israeli-Turkish Ties Face Formidable Challenges
Jun 27, 2018
Efron @ShiraEfron
Israel and Turkey have mutual economic interests, such as trade, tourism, and energy. They have usually been able to separate their economic interests from their political differences, but current relations remain contentious. They differ on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the future of Syria.
Assessing Transatlantic Fallout After the U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal
May 31, 2018
Hoobler
The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has set off another round of reflection on the state and future of the transatlantic alliance. Though this dispute may not in itself lead to a full breach in the transatlantic relationship, it joins a growing list of sharp disagreements impacting U.S. alliances.
Regime Appears Fragile as Iranians Turn Much of Their Ire Inward
May 21, 2018
Baffa @R_Baffa, et al.
Economic hardship is fueling unrest in Iran. New sanctions stemming from the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal may exacerbate already difficult conditions. Now might be the time to exert maximum pressure on the regime in an effort to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table.
Five Thoughts on Jerusalem, Gaza, and What's in Between
May 15, 2018
Efron @ShiraEfron
Dozens of people have been killed and over 2,000 injured in protests in the Gaza Strip along the border with Israel. Continued clashes are expected until the fundamental problems of the strip are solved, including the governance vacuum, the Palestinian Authority-Hamas rift, and the conflict with Israel.
The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal
May 10, 2018
Kaye @dassakaye
President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. What will happen next? Friction between the United States and its European allies will likely increase, while Iran moves closer to China and Russia. Also, the resentment of a new generation of Iranians toward America is likely to grow.