The RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP) brings together analytic excellence and regional expertise from across the RAND Corporation to address the most critical political, social, and economic challenges facing the Middle East today. Our goal is to inform policy in ways that help improve the security and well-being of people living in the region.
Since 2011, 12 million Syrians have fled their homes, either inside Syria or crossing its borders as refugees. To help shape policy that will improve the lives of refugees and support host communities over the longer term, RAND focuses its work on the greatest challenges related to this crisis: humanitarian assistance, education, jobs, and regional and global security.
This Perspective examines how Iranian factional divisions may impact the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany) and the viability of the JCPOA if major events were to occur, such as the death of the supreme leader or heightened U.S.-Iran tensions.
The U.S.-led strategy to defeat the Islamic State has been criticized for a lack of clarity, overemphasis on tactical objectives, and insufficient attention to the underlying causes of the greater civil conflict across both Iraq and Syria. This report assesses the current strategy and presents three options, derived from subject-matter-expert input. It recommends a new strategy to address root causes.
In this third paper in a series addressing Syria's conflict, RAND researchers examine how recent developments in Syria and the region -- including the cessation of hostilities that was sponsored by Russia, Iran, and Turkey -- reinforce the prospects for a national ceasefire based upon agreed zones of control backed by external powers. The authors also propose a plan for international administration of Raqqa province.
This report examines the ongoing debate about the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on Arabic Twitter to better understand the Twitter networks of ISIS supporters and opponents, using a mixed-methods analytic approach to identify and characterize in detail both support and opposition networks. The authors draw on community detection algorithms, lexical analysis to identify key themes and content, and social network analysis.
Director, Center for Middle East Public Policy; Senior Political Scientist
RAND CMEPP Experts are available to the media on a wide range of topics.
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Latest Commentary
Moving Beyond Mosul
Jul 18, 2017
Robinson @RobinsonL100, et al.
The Islamic State group has been defeated in Mosul. But this military routing isn't enough to ensure lasting stability, either in Mosul or in Iraq more broadly. What comes next will require careful planning, diplomacy, implementation, and coordination.
Can the Islamic State Survive If Baghdadi Is Dead?
Jun 30, 2017
Clarke @ColinPClarke
If and when self-declared Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is killed, it will have little effect on the threat posed by the Islamic State to global security. The far more important objective is to continue dismantling the organization as a whole, including its affiliates in Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, and Afghanistan.
How Innovation Can Assist the Refugee 'Pathway'
Jun 27, 2017
Corbett, et al.
New ways to collaborate and coordinate humanitarian actions are needed so that refugees, host communities, and other stakeholders are empowered to create and spread innovative solutions. These efforts should consider the entire refugee pathway, not only emergency and arrival assistance.
Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?
Jun 22, 2017
Clarke @ColinPClarke
The Russian military announced that it might have killed the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in an airstrike in Raqqa. Would his death weaken the group or will ISIS continue to adapt, evolve, and expand like al Qaeda did?
The Islamic State's Disposable Army
Jun 20, 2017
Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
To leaders of the Islamic State group, murder of its own and collective suicide are keys to its defense strategy. The group targets malcontents and the most suggestible, knowing they are desperate to belong to something and willing to die for it.
Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides
Jun 7, 2017
Kaye @dassakaye, et al.
Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.
Why Trump's Pressures on Iran Won't Benefit America
May 25, 2017
Nader @AlirezaNader
The Trump administration has demonstrated a renewed policy of pressure against Iran. In doing so, it risks losing the ability to leverage the greatest potential source of change in Iran: millions of Iranians who want a better country at peace with the world.
ISIS: Weakened but Still Potent
May 18, 2017
Clarke @ColinPClarke
ISIS is being defeated as an insurgency while preparing to transform into a clandestine terrorist group. But ISIS will continue to pose a serious threat to the countries where it operates and to the Western nations that it targets as it evolves.
Hamas's Strategic Rebranding
May 17, 2017
Clarke @ColinPClarke
Hamas has unveiled a revised version of its charter that appears to soften the group's stance toward Israel. Does this represent a shift away from violence and toward a more lasting and peaceful political presence? Or is it a ploy to buy time to rearm?