Samuel Charap

@scharap on Twitter

Senior Political Scientist

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in political science, University of Oxford; M.Phil. in Russian and East European studies, University of Oxford; B.A. in political science and Russian, Amherst College

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include the foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states; European and Eurasian regional security; and U.S.-Russia deterrence, strategic stability, and arms control.

From November 2012 until April 2017, Charap was the senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Prior to joining the IISS, he served at the U.S. Department of State as senior advisor to the undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security and on the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff, covering Russia and Eurasia. From 2009 to 2011, Charap was director for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for American Progress.

Charap's book on the Ukraine crisis, Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia (coauthored with Timothy Colton), was published in January 2017. His articles have appeared in The Washington Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, Survival, Current History and several other journals.

Charap was a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center and the International Center for Policy Studies (Kyiv), and a Fulbright Scholar at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. He is fluent in Russian and proficient in Ukrainian. Charap holds a Ph.D. in political science and an M.Phil. in Russian and East European studies from the University of Oxford, where he was a Marshall Scholar. He received his B.A. in Russian and political science from Amherst College. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Research Focus

Previous Positions

Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS; Senior Advisor, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security; Member, Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff

Selected Publications

Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton, Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia, Routledge, 2017

Honors & Awards

Marshall Scholarship, Marshall Aid Commemoration Commission
Fulbright Scholarship, U.S. Department of State

Languages

Russian

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: ABC News Australia Online; Al-Monitor; Associated Press TV; BBC News; BBC World News; CNBC; CNN; CNN International; Council on Foreign Relations; DIE ZEIT; FiveThirtyEight; NPR News; PBS NewsHour; PRI, The World; Robert Wright's Nonzero podcast; Wisdom of Crowds podcast; Yomiuri Shimbun

Commentary: The Economist; Financial Times; Foreign Affairs; New York Times; The Washington Post

Commentary

Ukraine

Ukraine Should Not Close Off Routes to the Negotiating Table
Ukraine and Russia will probably eventually return to the table—perhaps not this month or even this year—and therefore it is important to debate ideas for how to get there, not to dismiss them.
Mar 7, 2023
Financial Times
Ukraine

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React
We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.
Feb 20, 2023
Ukraine

Planning Now for a Negotiated Outcome in Ukraine
The United States should consider keeping open lines of communication with Russia. While it may not lead to peace in Ukraine any time soon, it could help mitigate the risks of dramatic escalation and indefinite war.
Oct 28, 2022
Foreign Affairs
International Diplomacy

The Wisdom of U.S. Restraint on Russia
The United States has been gradually increasing assistance to Ukraine without provoking a wider war. Although this approach has frustrated Ukrainian leaders and many observers, it reflects the best traditions of Cold War–era crisis diplomacy—pursuing U.S. interests while avoiding a direct clash with a rival, always with an eye on the long term.
Sep 12, 2022
Foreign Affairs
International Diplomacy

Could U.S. Weapons Assistance to Ukraine Lead to Russian Escalation?
The United States and its allies should certainly continue providing Ukraine with the matériel it needs, but they should also—in close consultation with Kyiv—begin opening channels of communication with Russia. An eventual cease-fire should be the goal, even as the path to it remains uncertain.
Aug 1, 2022
New York Times
Warfare and Military Operations

Ukraine's Best Chance for Peace
In late March, Ukrainian diplomats introduced an innovative framework for a deal that could provide a pathway out of the war. There are powerful obstacles to achieving an agreement based on the framework, but so far it is the most plausible pathway identified to a sustainable peace for Ukraine.
Jun 1, 2022
Foreign Affairs
Cyber Warfare

Russian Cyberattacks May Be Coming. What Might Be an Optimal Strategy for Responding?
Russia appears poised to make a first move against the United States and its allies in cyberspace. A savvy U.S. response that is deliberately measured and accompanied by the right message could end this fight after the first round.
Apr 14, 2022
The Washington Post
Russia

Even as War Rages, It's Not Too Soon for U.S. Policymakers to Look Over Horizon
As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on and the humanitarian disaster deepens, Washington may be tempted to focus exclusively on punishing Putin. But that approach might well backfire. Over the long term, the United States wants stability and peace in and around Ukraine and to ensure that Moscow pays a cost for its aggression without making it a global pariah.
Mar 30, 2022
Foreign Affairs
Ukraine

Ensuring Russia's War with Ukraine Doesn't Morph into Direct Conflict with NATO
Russia has launched an unprecedented act of aggression against Ukraine. The United States and its allies must respond forcefully. But as they do, they should take into account the possibility of triggering a spiral of escalation that could lead to the only outcome worse than the invasion of Ukraine itself: a hot war between Russia and NATO.
Mar 2, 2022
Financial Times
Russia

How to Break the Cycle of Conflict with Russia
Europe might well be on the brink of a major catastrophe. Until Russia, the United States, Europe, and the states stuck in between them reach a consensus on a revised regional order, post-Soviet Eurasia will remain a source of instability and conflict.
Feb 7, 2022
Foreign Affairs
Ukraine

U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine: A Silver Bullet?
U.S. military assistance to Ukraine now will at best be marginal in affecting the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. It might be morally justified to help a U.S. partner at risk of aggression. But given the scale of the potential threat to Ukraine and its forces, the most effective way Washington can help is to work on finding a diplomatic solution.
Jan 21, 2022
Foreign Policy
Russia

Speaking Aloud What NATO Has Left Unsaid Could Help Ease Ukraine-Russia Impasse
A statement that NATO has no intention to offer Ukraine membership at present should only be made in return for a tangible drawdown of Russian forces on the border. It concedes nothing to declare that NATO is not planning to do something it has no intention of doing anyway.
Jan 13, 2022
Financial Times
Ukraine

How Could the United States React to Russia's Latest Posturing on Ukraine?
Russia's military buildup along its border with Ukraine has been accompanied by dramatically tougher rhetoric in recent months. Russian President Vladimir Putin may believe Ukraine is at an inflection point and that it's time to up the ante. The risk of a major war seems real enough to justify a new U.S. approach.
Nov 19, 2021
Politico
Russia

Why We Must Talk to Russia
Compromise is the essence of diplomacy, the only way short of coercion, violence, and war of settling international disputes. Before we accept that no compromise with Russia is possible, we should first understand the cost of a new Cold War with Russia that would result.
Jan 2, 2020
Atlantic Council
International Diplomacy

Can Washington and Moscow Agree to Limit Political Interference?
After his meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia had proposed a mutual non-interference pledge. The concept of elaborating norms of non-interference on a mutual basis might be the best way to stabilize U.S.-Russian relations and prevent the damaging episodes of recent years from happening again.
Jun 13, 2019
War on the Rocks
Ukraine

Book Review: Ukraine and the Art of Strategy by Lawrence Freedman
The crisis in Ukraine has proved a watershed moment for Russia's relations with the West. In Ukraine and the Art of Strategy, Lawrence Freedman presents a brief history of the conflict and analyzes it in the context of strategic theory.
Apr 16, 2019
Foreign Affairs
Security Cooperation

Time to Make a Deal on Syria
U.S. leverage is much diminished by the Assad regime's recent gains but there are still opportunities for Washington and Russia to achieve a settlement that preserves some U.S. interests. These include maintaining the gains made against the Islamic State and constraining Iranian influence in Syria.
Jul 10, 2018
Foreign Policy
Ukraine

The Ukraine Crisis: Why Everyone Loses
The Ukraine conflict has left every major actor involved worse off than it was before, and a resolution seems as elusive as ever. An inclusive dialogue on the regional order could be the first step toward defusing the conflict.
Apr 19, 2017
Russia Matters

Publications

Journal Article
An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine
While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.
Jun 6, 2023
Report
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach
Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
May 17, 2023
Research Brief
What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach
Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
May 17, 2023
Report
Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
This Perspective identifies possible trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war, how they would affect U.S. interests, and what the United States could do to influence the course of the conflict.
Jan 25, 2023
Report
Responding to a Limited Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War
This Perspective outlines key considerations for U.S. policymakers charged with planning responses to a potential limited Russian attack on U.S. allies or U.S. forces in Europe.
Dec 20, 2022
Report
Understanding Russian Coercive Signaling
Russia has consistently engaged in signaling activities toward the United States and its allies in recent years. The authors analyze this behavior to provide a better understanding of its drivers and practical guidelines for assessing future events.
Sep 29, 2022
Report
Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War
The potential for Russia to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. This Perspective identifies four potential escalation pathways and accompanying key considerations for U.S. policymakers.
Jul 26, 2022
Report
Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition
In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China.
Apr 6, 2022
Report
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others: Country Perspectives
The authors examine the nature of the emerging era of international competition, assess the perspectives of the major powers—beginning with the primary challengers to the U.S.-led international order—and evaluate various characteristics for each country.
Mar 31, 2022
Report
Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability
The authors examine the challenges to the U.S.-Russian bilateral strategic stability paradigm and assess possible policy changes that could address these challenges.
Feb 17, 2022
Report
Russia's Growing Presence in Africa: A Geostrategic Assessment
This report presents an empirically rigorous description of where Russia is involved in Africa, where it is most likely to become involved in the future, and what implications this might have for U.S. Air Forces Africa's regional strategy.
Jan 31, 2022
Report
Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
Leveraging theory and historical cases, the authors identify the factors that keep great-power rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes and use that framework to assess the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.
Nov 29, 2021
Report
Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions
The authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries (specifically, Russia, China, and Iran) have intervened militarily since 1946 and identify why these adversaries initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future.
Sep 27, 2021
Report
Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since 1991. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions.
Sep 27, 2021
Report
Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality
What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.
Aug 16, 2021
Journal Article
Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in U.S. Russia Policy
In the run-up to a summit between the United States and Russia, is it time to revisit core assumptions, and expand the scope for statecraft in U.S. Russia policy?
May 18, 2021
Journal Article
Moscow's Calibrated Coercion in Ukraine and Russian Strategic Culture
This paper analyzes Russia's use of force in Ukraine since the end of major combat operations in February 2015.
Sep 16, 2020
Journal Article
Strategic Sderzhivanie: Understanding Contemporary Russian Approaches to "Deterrence"
This paper argues that viewing Russia's actions through the lens of the concept "sderzhivanie" can help Western analysts and decision-makers better understand the drivers of Moscow's behavior.
Sep 16, 2020
Research Brief
Meeting Europe's 21st Century Security Challenges: Reimagining Conventional Arms Control
The authors of this report outline new conventional arms control measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe and replace existing, outdated measures.
Apr 29, 2020
Report
A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st Century
Through a combination of interviews, workshops, and structured analysis on the causes of potential conflict, the authors of this report outline new conventional arms control measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe.
Apr 27, 2020
Report
Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria
Russia's 2015 military intervention in Syria's civil war took many by surprise. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions Moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive Russian decisionmaking on intervention.
Oct 31, 2019
Report
A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia
The authors of this volume offer a proposal for a revised regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia that would boost security, facilitate prosperity, and address conflicts in the region, and thus reduce tensions in Russia-West relations.
Oct 8, 2019
Report
The Future of the Russian Military: Russia's Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition
Researchers analyze societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. They also make projections about how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve in the future and how the U.S. Army can respond.
Jun 18, 2019
Research Brief
What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?
RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years -- with a focus on ground combat -- and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.
Jun 18, 2019
Testimony
The Demise of the INF: Implications for Russia-China Relations
Document submitted on April 9, 2019, to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission as a statement for the record for the hearing on March 21, 2019.
Apr 10, 2019
Report
Rethinking the Regional Order for Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia
This Perspective proposes a new approach to the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia that would foster greater stability in the region and reduce dangerous tensions in Russia-West relations.
Jun 13, 2018
Report
Getting Out from "In-Between": Perspectives on the Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia
The perspectives collected in these conference proceedings explore alternatives to the current approaches to the regional order for the states "in between" the West and Russia -- Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
Mar 8, 2018