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Commentary from ATP Researchers

‘No time to waste’: NIST formally issues standards for defense against quantum hacking
An article in Breaking Defense asks RAND researcher Edward Parker about the hacking threat from quantum computers. "This is the starting gun for what may be the single largest overhaul of US government communication systems since the adoption of the Internet."
Aug 13, 2024
How Ukraine Can Defeat Russian Glide Bombs
Fighting often requires multiple capabilities and innovative or flexible use. More of both will be needed to enable Ukraine to defeat the Russian glide bomb threat.
Jun 28, 2024
Assemble the Bodyguard of Lies: Strengthening U.S. Military Deception Capabilities
Few aspects of warfare are as valuable as efforts to deceive adversaries. The U.S. military inevitably will face rivals who use deception to their advantage, so it should once again hone its own subterfuge skills—from the lowest levels, to gain a tactical edge, to the highest, to achieve strategic surprise.
Apr 11, 2024
Reform the Budget Process to Strengthen U.S. Global Leadership
As the U.S. government confronts two near-peer challengers in China and Russia, along with mounting conflict in the Middle East, ensuring stability, predictability, and some measure of flexibility in the U.S. defense budget is more important than ever. Yet the U.S. budgeting system is in a state of disarray.
Feb 7, 2024
China’s investing billions in quantum R&D, but is Beijing making some bad bets?
An article in Breaking Defense examines Chinese investments in quantum technology R&D, and interviews RAND researcher Edward Parker, lead author of "An Assessment of the U.S. and Chinese Industrial Bases in Quantum Technology."
Feb 5, 2024
The Case for and Against AI Watermarking
The hype around the concept of AI-output watermarking may be masking very real system challenges. And failure to address watermarking as a systems problem is likely to result in solutions that risk working against the security and trust they seek to instill.
Jan 17, 2024
Oversight, Agility, and Stability: What the Department of Defense Can Learn from Other Budgeting Systems
Is the Department of Defense's Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) system nimble enough to meet national needs in a time of dynamic threats, increasingly capable adversaries, and rapid technological changes?
Jan 17, 2024
Getting 'Left-of-Launch' in the Counter-Drone Fight
The democratization of drone technology means that adversaries are now able to conduct attacks with near impunity. The Houthis' recent drone attacks in the Red Sea show that America's current approach to countering them is not working. A holistic, offensive strategy is needed.
Jan 17, 2024
Resilient Reconstruction in Ukraine
Kyiv may be prudent to invest in resilience as it rebuilds energy and other utilities, transport, economic and health infrastructure, and housing. Doing so could put Ukraine in a stronger position during the war and give it a jump start on peacetime rebuilding.
Dec 7, 2023
Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence
U.S. military forces no longer enjoy the kind of comprehensive superiority that was the foundation of victories over adversary states. Re-establishing a credible posture against aggression by highly capable adversaries will call for sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States, its allies, and its key partners to rethink their approaches to defeating aggression and to recast important elements of their military forces and postures.
Nov 3, 2023
Opinion: U.S. Hypersonic Missile Investments Overlook Key Path
The U.S. Defense Department has invested heavily in hypersonic weapons for over two decades, primarily focusing on boost-glide vehicles. Results have been disappointing.
Dec 22, 2023
F-16s Are No Magic Bullet for Ukraine, but They Are a Game Changer with the Right Munitions
Will F-16s win the war for Ukraine? No. Only ground victories and unacceptable Russian losses will force Putin to negotiate. However, a long-term commitment to supporting a well-equipped, sizable F-16 force will improve the likelihood of Ukrainian success even if an F-16 never shoots a Russian fighter.
Oct 3, 2023
Taking the Measure of AI and National Security
Transformative technologies should not be abandoned due to their risks. Instead, we should focus on understanding the threats, implementing necessary countermeasures, and utilizing the tools in a safer and more secure manner.
Sep 20, 2023
When a Quantum Computer Is Able to Break Our Encryption, It Won't Be a Secret
Policymakers and cybersecurity analysts should avoid messaging that emphasizes the risk that cryptanalytically relevant quantum computers developed in secret could be imminent or already operational. There is already more than enough reason to upgrade our communications systems to resist attacks from quantum computers as soon as possible.
Sep 13, 2023
Winning the Tech Cold War
Emerging technologies increasingly make it possible for machines to innovate much faster and more efficiently than humans ever could. The Pentagon can draw some important lessons for technology competition with China by looking at the U.S.-Soviet race to develop nuclear weapons during the Cold War.
Aug 17, 2023
Rethinking Who's Winning the U.S.-China Tech Competition
The competition between the U.S. and China is a multi-dimensional contest involving technological, economic, military, and political elements. To accurately assess a nation's standing, the focus should shift from measures (raw numerical data) to metrics, which offer meaningful interpretations of these numbers.
Aug 16, 2023
Why DoD Needs Greater Focus on Nonlethal Weapons, Intermediate Force Capabilities
Nonlethal weapons do not entail the firing of projectiles, the detonation of explosives, or even the use of edged weapons with blades. Their effects are more subtle, though no less powerful for that. But the effects of these systems, and their impact on overall military capabilities, are often underestimated or misunderstood.
Aug 8, 2023
ChatGPT Is Creating New Risks for National Security
Large language models like ChatGPT and Claude offer a wide range of beneficial applications. But there are significant risks associated with their use that demand a coordinated effort among partner nations to forge a solid, integrated defense against the threat of malign information operations.
Jul 20, 2023