RDWTI Research Publications

Conducting Counterinsurgency Operations: Lessons from Iraq (2003-2006)

This research brief examines U.S. counterinsurgency operations in Iraq from 2003 to 2006, including U.S. failure to protect Iraqi civilians; implications for future conflicts; and recommends steps to improve U.S. counterinsurgency capabilities.

Bruce R. Pirnie, Edward O'Connell

Consequence Prevention: A New Model for Addressing Uncertainty About Terrorist Threats

To help policymakers deal with the uncertainty surrounding the nature of future terrorist threats, traditional terrorism prevention measures should be integrated into a portfolio that also includes measures that mitigate an attack's consequences.

Brian A. Jackson

Countering Insurgency in the Muslim World: Rethinking U.S. Priorities and Capabilities

This research brief summarizes a RAND report that analyzes insurgencies such as those in Afghanistan and Iraq and calls for a major shift in investment priorities to give the United States the capabilities it needs for effective counterinsurgency.

David C. Gompert, John Gordon IV, Adam R. Grissom, David R. Frelinger, Seth G. Jones, Martin C. Libicki, Edward O'Connell, Brooke Stearns Lawson, Robert E. Hunter

Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan: RAND Counterinsurgency Study -- Volume 4

An examination of the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan illustrates that successful counterinsurgency requires effective indigenous security forces, especially police; a viable local government; and the suppression of external support for insurgents.

Seth G. Jones

Counterinsurgency in Iraq (2003-2006): RAND Counterinsurgency Study -- Volume 2

Implications of failure to protect local populations in counterinsurgency (COIN) operations, overreliance on technology, and lack of a coherent COIN approach, along with strategic considerations in and recommendations to improve U.S. COIN capability.

Bruce R. Pirnie, Edward O'Connell

Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century

This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I through Somalia in the early 1990s to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.

Forrest E. Morgan, Karl P. Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin L. Pollpeter, Roger Cliff

Defeating Terrorist Groups

Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism and Unconventional Threats and Capabilities on September 18, 2008.

Seth G. Jones

Department of Defense Training for Operations with Interagency, Multinational, and Coalition Partners

"Integrated operations" require the U.S. military to work with other government agencies, organizations, and foreign militaries. Current headquarter-staff training needs to be revamped to focus on high-priority tasks.

Michael Spirtas, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Harry J. Thie, Joe Hogler, Thomas Young

Deterrence -- From Cold War to Long War: Lessons from Six Decades of RAND Research

This book examines six decades of RAND Corporation research on deterrence for lessons relevant to the current and future strategic environments.

Austin Long

How Terrorist Groups End: Implications for Countering al Qa'ida

This research brief describes an analysis of how terrorist groups end. The evidence since 1968 indicates that most groups have ceased to exist as a result of police and intelligence actions or of political accommodations, not military efforts.

Seth G. Jones, Martin C. Libicki

How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa'ida

All terrorist groups end. But how do they end? Most groups since 1968 have ended because they joined the political process or are defeated by police and intelligence services. This has significant implications for countering al Qa'ida.

Seth G. Jones, Martin C. Libicki

In Their Own Words: Voices of Jihad -- Compilation and Commentary

The actual statements and writings of jihadi terrorists paint a revealing self-portrait of their motives, plans, and mind-set, and offer more profound insights into the jihadi threat.

David Aaron

The Malay-Muslim Insurgency in Southern Thailand -- Understanding the Conflict's Evolving Dynamic: RAND Counterinsurgency Study -- Paper 5

Current unrest in the Malay-Muslim provinces of southern Thailand has captured growing national, regional, and international attention. This paper assesses the current situation and its probable direction.

Peter Chalk

The Maritime Dimension of International Security: Terrorism, Piracy, and Challenges for the United States

Piracy and sea-borne terrorism have been on the rise since 2000. While the United States has spearheaded several initiatives to improve maritime security, policymakers should consider four additional measures to safeguard the world's oceans.

Peter Chalk

More Freedom, Less Terror? Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World

Examines the effects that liberalization processes and democracy promotion have had on terrorism and political violence in six Arab countries.

Dalia Dassa Kaye, Frederic Wehrey, Audra K. Grant, Dale Stahl

Piracy and Terrorism at Sea: A Rising Challenge for U.S. Security

This research brief summarizes RAND's analysis of recent trends in piracy and maritime terrorism, which pose a significant threat. The United States has taken only limited steps to enhance maritime security; broader measures are required.

Peter Chalk

Rethinking Counterinsurgency: RAND Counterinsurgency Study -- Volume 5

British and U.S. counterinsurgency (COIN) operations have been slow to adapt to the rise of the global jihadist insurgency. The authors analyze past British COIN experience, explore the evolving nature of insurgency, and suggest a new COIN framework.

John Mackinlay, Alison Al-Baddawy

Al Qaeda and Its Affiliates: A Global Tribe Waging Segmental Warfare

Because Al Qaeda and its affiliates operate much like a global tribe, this paper describes the dynamics of classic tribes: what drives them, how they organize, and how they fight.

David Ronfeldt

The Just Conduct of War Against Radical Islamic Terror and Insurgencies

The author's analysis considers justice from the eyes of the people among whom terrorist and insurgents hide.

Terrence K. Kelly

Liaisons Dangereuses? Transatlantic Intelligence Cooperation and the Global War on Terrorism

Overview of international intelligence cooperation, key aspects of post-9/11 collaboration in the GWOT, and challenges to cooperation post-9/11.

William Rosenau

Network Technologies for Networked Terrorists: Assessing the Value of Information and Communication Technologies to Modern Terrorist Organizations

Terrorists use network technologies as they plan and stage attacks. This book explores the purpose and manner of the use of these technologies, their net effect, and security forces' possible responses.

Bruce W. Don, David R. Frelinger, Scott Gerwehr, Eric Landree, Brian A. Jackson

The Radicalization of Diasporas and Terrorism: A Joint Conference by the RAND Corporation and the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich

Explores evidence of Diaspora communities, frustrated with a perceived war against the Muslim world, turning against their adopted homelands by supporting terrorist attacks against Western countries through recruitment, fundraising, and training.

Bruce Hoffman, William Rosenau, Andrew J. Curiel, Doron Zimmermann

Sharing the Dragon's Teeth: Terrorist Groups and the Exchange of New Technologies

This work details efforts of 11 terrorist groups to improve their operational capabilities through the exchange of technologies and knowledge and suggests ways that government policies can create barriers to terrorists' adoption of new technologies.

Kim Cragin, Peter Chalk, Sara A. Daly, Brian A. Jackson

Stealing the Sword: Limiting Terrorist Use of Advanced Conventional Weapons

Examines how terrorists make technology choices and how the United States can use that knowledge to discourage terrorists' use of advanced conventional weapons.

James Bonomo, Giacomo Bergamo, David R. Frelinger, John Gordon IV, Brian A. Jackson

Understanding Terrorist Ideology

Testimony presented to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on June 12, 2007.

Kim Cragin

Al-Qaida: Terrorist Selection and Recruitment

Details various models al-Qaida may be using to attract new members.

Sara A. Daly, Scott Gerwehr

Analyzing Terrorism Risk

Written testimony submitted to the House Financial Services Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, and the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment, 07-25-2006.

Henry H. Willis

Beyond al-Qaeda: Part 1, The Global Jihadist Movement

Examines al-Qaeda's evolution and the development of the global jihadist movement.

Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O'Brien, William Rosenau

Beyond al-Qaeda: Part 2, The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe

Examines terrorist groups that, while not formally allied with al-Qaeda, pose a threat to the United States or to its friends and allies.

Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Gregg, Theodore W. Karasik, Kevin A. O'Brien, William Rosenau

Combating Al Qaeda and the Militant Islamic Threat

Testimony presented to the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Unconventional Threats and Capabilities on February 16, 2006.

Bruce Hoffman

The New Age of Terrorism

Offers a perspective on significant trends in terrorism over the past fourdecades.

Brian Michael Jenkins

Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves

The author presents an overview of U.S. progress in the war on terrorism, reviews the jihadists' operational code, offers strategic principles for defeating terrorists, and discusses what America must do to prevail in this struggle.

Brian Michael Jenkins

Understanding and Preparing for the Psychological Consequences of Terrorism

Describes the psychological consequences of terrorism and outlinesstrategies for dealing with them.

Terri Tanielian, Bradley D. Stein

The Use of the Internet by Islamic Extremists

Testimony presented to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, on May 4, 2006.

Bruce Hoffman

Waging the "War of Ideas"

Addresses the important issue of the ideological differences between theUnited States and al-Qaida and the necessity to win the war of ideas.

William Rosenau

Analyzing Terrorism Risk

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment on November 17, 2005.

Henry H. Willis

Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism

Understanding how terrorist groups learn may aid in developing strategies to combat terrorist activities.

Brian A. Jackson, John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini, Horacio R. Trujillo

Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 2: Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups

Case studies of the organizational learning activities of five major terrorist groups and a methodology for ascertaining what and why they learned.

Brian A. Jackson, John C. Baker, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, John V. Parachini, Horacio R. Trujillo

"Connecting the Dots" in Intelligence: Detecting Terrorist Threats in the Out-of-the-Ordinary

John S. Hollywood, Diane Snyder, Kenneth N. McKay, John E. Boon, Jr.

Estimating Terrorism Risk

This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk, presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to improve risk-based resource allocation.

Henry H. Willis, Andrew R. Morral, Terrence K. Kelly, Jamison Jo Medby

The Effect of Terrorist Attacks in Spain on Transatlantic Cooperation in the War on Terror

Testimony presented to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on European Affairs on March 31, 2004.

James Dobbins

Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior

Presents a unique approach to selecting and assembling disparate pieces of information to produce a general understanding of a threat.

John S. Hollywood, Diane Snyder, Kenneth N. McKay, John E. Boon, Jr.

Terrorism and Rail Security

Testimony presented to the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee on March 23, 2004.

K. Jack Riley

Urban Battle Fields of South Asia: Lessons Learned from Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan

Examines several case studies of sustained campaigns of urban terrorism perpetrated by various domestic groups in the countries of India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

C. Christine Fair

Arms Trafficking and Colombia

Identifies the sources and routes used by arms traffickers to buy, sell, transfer, and ship weapons and the implications of small-arms trafficking patterns for U.S. policy.

Kim Cragin, Bruce Hoffman

The Logic of Suicide Terrorism

The perceived randomness of suicide bombings is in large part responsible for the emotional suffering that they inflict on society. But the planners of these attacks use a strategy that is anything but random.

Bruce Hoffman

Aum Shinrikyo's Biological Weapons Program: Why Did It Fail?

Aum's failure suggests that it may, in fact, be far more difficult to carry out a deadly bioterrorism attack than has sometimes been portrayed by government officials and the press.

William Rosenau

Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats

Testimony presented to the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats on November 15, 2001.

Brian Michael Jenkins

Trends in International Terrorism, 1982 and 1983

This report analyzes incidents recorded in The RAND Corporation's chronology of international terrorism for 1982 and 1983.

Bonnie Cordes, Bruce Hoffman, Brian Michael Jenkins, Konrad Kellen, Sue Ellen Moran, William F. Sater