Implications of emerging and disruptive technologies on strategic stability

What is the issue?

Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs), such as artificial intelligence, and the growing exploitation of novel domains of competition (e.g. space, cyber and electromagnetic) hold the potential to transform military operations and conflict.

Taken together, the rapid pace of technological change, the intensifying competition between states, and the immaturity of global governance for many EDTs pose complex and under-appreciated risks to strategic stability. Too often, technology-related risks are examined only at the tactical level (e.g. AI in targeting), but the potential for strategic-level impacts and escalation is profound.

Military applications of novel technology can, if not managed carefully, create unwanted arms races, change the offence-defence balance in warfare, undermine effective nuclear deterrence, or result in inadvertent escalation during a crisis.

How are we helping?

Over several years, RAND Europe has been commissioned to undertake a series of interlinked studies through the Strategic Stability Programme of the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Several of these studies focus on EDT. They address the implications for strategic stability and response options for states to consider, around:

• Strategic competition in an age of military AI
• Novel effectors, including hypersonics, directed energy weapons, offensive cyber, electromagnetic pulse, and autonomous systems
• Future non-nuclear C2 and counter-C2 systems
• Adversarial AI: capabilities for targeting and disrupting AI systems

This includes considering the full range of governance options, including norms development, transparency and confidence-building measures, deterrence, and new international treaties, standards, or codes of conduct.

Ongoing studies build on this technology-focused work to consider how strategic stability could be bolstered through tailoring deterrence towards state adversaries, and a more robust understanding of the deterrence toolkit in outer space.

Explore the studies