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Reports and Findings on the Will to Fight

Final Publications

Iraqi Army Will to Fight: A Will-to-Fight Case Study with Lessons for Western Security Force Assistance 2022

Ben Connable
This is a study of Iraqi Army will to fight. It applies the RAND military will-to-fight model and assessment tool to three cases and recommends changes to U.S. security force assistance.
Will to Fight: Returning to the Human Fundamentals of War 2019

Ben Connable, Michael J. McNerney, William Marcellino, Aaron B. Frank, Henry Hargrove, Marek N. Posard, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Natasha Lander, Jasen J. Castillo, James Sladden, et al.
This brief argues for the importance of improving our understanding of what influences will to fight, and it describes two models for doing so: one for analyzing a military unit's will to fight, and one for analyzing a nation's will to fight.
Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units 2018

Ben Connable, Michael J. McNerney, William Marcellino, Aaron B. Frank, Henry Hargrove, Marek N. Posard, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Natasha Lander, Jasen J. Castillo, James Sladden
This report defines and describes will to fight and provides a model of unit will to fight that can be applied to ground combat units of any scale. It also provides a theoretical basis for adding will to fight to military war gaming.
National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don't 2018

Michael J. McNerney, Ben Connable, S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Natasha Lander, Marek N. Posard, Jasen J. Castillo, Dan Madden, Ilana Blum, Aaron B. Frank, Benjamin J. Fernandes, et al.
In this report, RAND researchers propose an exploratory model of 15 variables that shape a national government's decision to continue or end military and other operations during a conflict (i.e., national will to fight).

Commentary

The Will to Fight, Lessons from Ukraine
In Ukraine, ferocious defense has stalled the invaders. Even if Kyiv falls, continued resistance seems likely. Ukraine has reminded the world that national unity in the face of existential threats, self-reliance strengthened by collective defense, and courage coupled with compassion can help underdog populations resist the mightiest military forces.
Mar 29, 2022
The Will to Fight in the Age of Social Media
Social media messaging has played a decisive role in strengthening Ukraine's will to fight—arguably the single most important factor in war—against Russia.
Mar 22, 2022
American Deterrence's Missing Half
If American deterrence fails, it may not be because adversaries doubt U.S. military capabilities so much as they doubt American willpower. Shifting those perceptions will require not just defense authorizations, but also repairing the social fabric here at home.
Jan 24, 2022
Will to Fight: Are Americans and Chinese Ready to Die for Taiwan?
While brinksmanship is useful for strategic deterrence, it is also very risky. The United States and China could easily stumble into an unplanned high-intensity war over Taiwan. However, it is not at all clear that either side is psychologically prepared for such a war.
Nov 8, 2021
Russian Mercenaries in Great-Power Competition: Strategic Supermen or Weak Link?
The weaknesses within Russian mercenary forces and within the Russian state in relation to press-ganged youths, conscripts, and casualties may offer opportunities for exploitation in great-power competition. These broader weaknesses in Russian national will to fight could be examined to identify more ways to prevent Russia from aggressively undermining Western democracy.
Mar 9, 2021
The Will to Fight and the Fate of Nations
America's military argues that "will to fight" - the disposition and decision to fight, act, or persevere - is the most important factor in war. In this view, war is a fundamentally human endeavor, and military force is used to bend and break the enemy’s will. In a War on the Rocks essay, Ben Connable and Michael McNerney argue that, in practice, America's military tends to instead treat war as a fundamentally mechanical process, driven by acquisitions and technology.
Dec 20, 2018