HSOAC Publications

The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) conducts research and analysis for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in two program areas, the Acquisition and Development Program, and the Strategy, Policy, and Operations Program.

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  Decoding Data Science: The U.S. Coast Guard's Evolving Needs and Their Implications June 24, 2020

  Aaron C. Davenport, Michelle D. Ziegler, Abbie Tingstad, Katherine Anania, Daniel Ish, Nidhi Kalra, Scott Savitz, Rachel Liang, Melissa Bauman

  The U.S. Coast Guard has an opportunity to plot the path to determine service-specific uses for the expanding field of data science, identify a strategy and driving mechanisms, and begin laying out a plan. This Perspective outlines the role that data science can play in decisionmaking processes and provides a selected set of key questions and sensitivities for the Coast Guard to consider in developing its future usage of data science.

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  Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program May 27, 2020

  Abbie Tingstad, Michael T. Wilson, Katherine Anania, Jordan R. Fischbach, Susan A. Resetar, Scott Savitz, Kristin Van Abel, R. J. Briggs, Aaron C. Davenport, Stephanie Pezard, et al.

  The U.S. Coast Guard's motto is Semper Paratus — always ready. But for what? This report describes an approach to developing scenarios to aid in decisionmaking under deep uncertainty through the Evergreen strategic foresight initiative. The scenarios presented here focus on readiness, but the approach can be adapted for other contexts.

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  U.S. Coast Guard Workforce 2040: Better Management Through Transparency May 18, 2020

  Susan A. Resetar, Michelle D. Ziegler, Aaron C. Davenport, Melissa Bauman

  This Perspective describes several ways in which the U.S. Coast Guard can effectively recruit and retain its future workforce by providing greater transparency in personnel management practices. The work was inspired by the emphasis on transparency at a 2019 Coast Guard Evergreen V workshop called Workforce 2040, at which participants discussed emerging and potential future challenges to Coast Guard operations.

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  Face Recognition Technologies: Designing Systems that Protect Privacy and Prevent Bias May 14, 2020

  Douglas Yeung, Rebecca Balebako, Carlos Ignacio Gutierrez Gaviria, Michael Chaykowsky

  Face recognition technologies (FRTs) have many practical security-related purposes, but advocacy groups and individuals have expressed apprehensions about their use. This report highlights the high-level privacy and bias implications of FRT systems. The authors propose a heuristic with two dimensions — consent status and comparison type — to help determine a proposed FRT's level of privacy and accuracy. They also identify privacy and bias concerns.

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  The Risk-Mitigation Value of the Transportation Worker Identification Credential: A Comprehensive Security Assessment of the TWIC Program May 13, 2020

  Heather J. Williams, Kristin Van Abel, David Metz, James V. Marrone, Edward W. Chan, Katherine Costello, Ryan Michael Bauer, Devon Hill, Simon Veronneau, Joseph C. Chang, et al.

  The Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) is designed to enhance security at U.S. ports. It demonstrates that the holder has passed a Transportation Security Administration security threat assessment and is required of anyone with unescorted access to a secure area at a regulated facility. This report provides the findings from an assessment of the TWIC program, along with the assessors' recommendations.

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  Tracking and Disrupting the Illicit Antiquities Trade with Open Source Data May 12, 2020

  Matthew Sargent, James V. Marrone, Alexandra Evans, Bilyana Lilly, Erik Nemeth, Stephen Dalzell

  The illicit antiquities market is fueled by a well-documented rise in looting at archaeological sites and a fear that the proceeds of such looting may be financing terrorism or rogue states. In this report, the authors compile evidence from numerous open sources to outline the major policy-relevant characteristics of that market and to propose the way forward for developing policies intended to disrupt illicit networks.

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  Modeling the Impact of Border-Enforcement Measures May 7, 2020

  Elina Treyger, Michael W. Robbins, Joseph C. Chang, Stephanie Tanverakul

  Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center researchers sought to establish a causal connection between surveillance technology and outcomes relevant to border security. The study demonstrated the promises and limitations of quasi-experimental statistical methods for evaluating the effects or effectiveness of different border-enforcement measures.

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  The Federal Research Enterprise and COVID-19: A Lesson in Unpreparedness May 5, 2020

  Daniel M. Gerstein

  Remarks presented to the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee at a virtual roundtable on May 5, 2020.

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  The Marine Transportation System, Autonomous Technology, and Implications for the U.S. Coast Guard May 4, 2020

  Scott Savitz, Aaron C. Davenport, Michelle D. Ziegler

  The authors explain how autonomous systems could affect the Marine Transportation System and shape the Coast Guard's roles, responsibilities, and capabilities. Legitimate actors, criminals, and attackers, as well as the Coast Guard and its partner agencies, will increasingly use autonomous technologies. The Coast Guard will need to consider them in its strategies, policies, concepts of operations, and tactics.

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  Short-Term Solutions to a Long-Term Challenge: Rethinking Disaster Recovery Planning to Reduce Vulnerabilities and Inequities April 30, 2020

  Melissa L. Finucane, Joie D. Acosta, Amanda Wicker, Katie Whipkey

  We review case examples to illustrate how post-disaster policies may influence the nature, pace, and inclusiveness of community recovery.

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  Meeting U.S. Coast Guard Airpower Needs: Assessing the Options April 21, 2020

  Jeremy M. Eckhause, David T. Orletsky, Aaron C. Davenport, Mel Eisman, Raza Khan, Jonathan Theel, Marc Thibault, Dulani Woods, Michelle D. Ziegler

  Because U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) rotary-wing aircraft are nearing their ends of life, the USCG is reassessing its airpower needs for its current missions and future operational requirements. Researchers assessed what airpower mixes could help the USCG execute its missions across the entire geographic domain for operations in the next 30 years. In this report, they document their findings and make recommendations.

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  Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center: 2018-2019 Annual Report April 3, 2020

  To support the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) across its missions, the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC). This is the center's 2018–2019 annual report.

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  How the U.S. Coast Guard Can Leverage Social Media and Enhanced Cell Phone Data to Improve Emergency Response March 17, 2020

  Douglas Yeung, Sarah A. Nowak, Sohaela Amiri, Aaron C. Davenport, Emily Hoch, Kelly Klima, Colleen M. McCullough

  Researchers are helping the U.S. Department of Homeland Security understand how social media might be better leveraged for situational awareness—particularly location information—in U.S. Coast Guard response operations.

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  U.S. Coast Guard Emergency Response and Disaster Operations: Using Social Media for Situational Awareness March 17, 2020

  Douglas Yeung, Sarah A. Nowak, Sohaela Amiri, Aaron C. Davenport, Emily Hoch, Kelly Klima, Colleen M. McCullough

  Social media can enhance situational awareness in response operations, but using social media this way poses challenges. Researchers sought to contribute to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) mission to ensure resilience to disasters by helping DHS understand whether and how social media might be better leveraged for such situational awareness. The primary focus of this research was on U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) response operations.

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  Small Unmanned Aerial System Adversary Capabilities March 12, 2020

  Bradley Wilson, Shane Tierney, Brendan Toland, Rachel M. Burns, Colby Peyton Steiner, Christopher Scott Adams, Michael Nixon, Raza Khan, Michelle D. Ziegler, Jan Osburg, et al.

  To support U.S. Department of Homeland Security efforts to prioritize capability investments, this report examines trends in small unmanned aerial system development, the features that are likely to aid nefarious users, and how such actors could use an sUAS (or multiple systems) to conduct various types of operations—from surveilling U.S. government facilities to dispersing a chemical agent at a large public event.

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  How to Analyze the Cyber Threat from Drones: Background, Analysis Frameworks, and Analysis Tools March 5, 2020

  Katharina Ley Best, Jon Schmid, Shane Tierney, Jalal Awan, Nahom M. Beyene, Maynard A. Holliday, Raza Khan, Karen Lee

  In this report, the authors explore approaches for understanding, inventorying, and modeling cybersecurity implications of the rapid growth in drone usage, focusing specifically on current vulnerabilities and future trends. The authors propose conceptual approaches meant to enable the enumeration and categorization of drone-related cyber threats and explore some of the potential benefits and challenges of modeling the commercial drone threat.

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  The Role of Intellectual Property in U.S. Homeland Security September 19, 2019

  Geoffrey McGovern, Maria McCollester, Douglas C. Ligor, Sheng Tao Li, Douglas Yeung, Laura Kupe

  Reported here is an investigation into the current baseline level of intellectual property (IP) support at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and its components. The results suggest that IP initiatives offer greater opportunities for operational improvement than department leadership currently recognizes. The research revealed several examples of overlooked IP issues that are currently exposing programs to substantial risk.

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  Characterization of the Synthetic Opioid Threat Profile to Inform Inspection and Detection Solutions September 9, 2019

  Bryce Pardo, Lois M. Davis, Melinda Moore

  The majority of opioid overdoses are due to illicitly manufactured imports. Researchers from the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center evaluated publicly available data to better understand the dimensions of the consumption and supply of these substances. They performed qualitative and quantitative analyses of these data and provide their findings and recommendations in this report.

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  Balancing Quality of Life with Mission Requirements: An Analysis of Personnel Tempo on U.S. Coast Guard Major Cutters July 29, 2019

  Jennie W. Wenger, Maria C. Lytell, Kimberly Curry Hall, Michael L. Hansen

  The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) faces a challenge in determining the optimal length of days away from home port for personnel on major cutters. The authors analyze how USCG servicemembers serving on major cutters respond to various levels of personnel tempo, as well as the effects of working conditions on these responses.

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  Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center: 2017-2018 Annual Report July 24, 2019

  To support the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) across its missions, RAND operates the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC). The HSOAC 2017–2018 Annual Report offers an overview of HSOAC capabilities, highlights how RAND is supporting the DHS mission, and looks ahead at projects in the core research programs.

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  Development of Standardized and Best Practices for the USCG Boats Acquisition Program June 24, 2019

  Brendan Toland, Michael Vasseur, Aaron C. Davenport, Scott Savitz, Katheryn Giglio

  The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) depends on its fleet of more than 1,600 boats to conduct its most critical operations, which span all 11 of the USCG's statutory missions. This report contains a review of the USCG boats acquisition program and the programs of similar organizations inside and outside the USCG, possible funding and structural strategies, and recommendations for USCG leadership.

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  An Analytic Inventory of DHS Headquarters Business Processes April 24, 2019

  Jeffrey B. Wenger, R. Kekoa Koehler, Henry H. Willis

  This report provides an inventory of U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) analytic capabilities in the including current capabilities in use for decisionmaking, as DHS establishes an Analytic Agenda. It details the inventory approach and enumerates the analytic capabilities of each business process owner providing a benchmark for evaluating the analytic maturity of such processes and a strategic direction to improve data collection.

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  Human Smuggling and Associated Revenues: What Do or Can We Know About Routes from Central America to the United States? April 21, 2019

  Victoria A. Greenfield, Blas Nunez-Neto, Ian Mitch, Joseph C. Chang, Etienne Rosas

  Unlawful migrants from Central America apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border each year often hire smugglers for assistance or pay others for rights of way during their journey north. The authors of this report examine what is known or knowable about the structure, operations, and financing of actors that engage in human smuggling along routes from Central America to the United States and develop a preliminary estimate of associated revenue.

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  Human Smuggling from Central America to the United States: What Is Known or Knowable About Smugglers' Operations and Revenues? April 21, 2019

  Victoria A. Greenfield, Blas Nunez-Neto, Ian Mitch, Joseph C. Chang, Etienne Rosas

  RAND researchers examined the structure, operations, and financing of actors that engage in human smuggling along routes from Central America to the United States and developed a preliminary estimate of revenues associated with human smuggling.

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  Improving Gender Diversity in the U.S. Coast Guard: Identifying Barriers to Female Retention March 29, 2019

  Kimberly Curry Hall, Kirsten M. Keller, David Schulker, Sarah Weilant, Katherine L. Kidder, Nelson Lim

  This report documents the results of a study designed to identify the root causes of female attrition in the active-duty Coast Guard. The study analyzed trends in retention data and conducted focus groups with over 1,100 active-duty Coast Guard members. The report describes key retention factors identified through these analyses and provides recommendations for addressing identified barriers to Coast Guard female retention.

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