HSOAC Publications

The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) conducts research and analysis for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in two program areas, the Acquisition and Development Program, and the Strategy, Policy, and Operations Program.

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  Developing Metrics and Scoring Procedures to Support Mitigation Grant Program Decisionmaking March 31, 2021

  Joshua Mendelsohn, Grant Johnson, Kelly Klima, Rachel Steratore, Samantha Cohen, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Lloyd Dixon, Jaime L. Hastings, Paul S. Steinberg

  The Federal Emergency Management Agency commissioned development of metrics that can inform decisionmaking for awarding predisaster mitigation grants. The authors established three lines of effort (LoEs) for analysis: indirect benefits, applicant institutional capability, and community resilience. Each LoE produced a metric or framework that could support grant decisionmaking and program performance evaluation.

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  Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center: 2019–2020 Annual Report March 22, 2021

  To support the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) across its missions, the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC). This is the center's 2019–2020 annual report.

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  Public-private Partnership for Building a Resilient Broadband Infrastructure in Puerto Rico January 26, 2021

  Amado Cordova, Karlyn D. Stanley

  This article will explore the use of an innovative approach to a public-private partnership to spur the deployment of broadband and create more resilient telecommunications networks in Puerto Rico.

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  Identifying Systemic Bias in the Acquisition of Machine Learning Decision Aids for Law Enforcement Applications January 21, 2021

  Douglas Yeung, Inez Khan, Nidhi Kalra, Osonde A. Osoba

  Bias in law enforcement systems that use machine learning can cause or exacerbate inequity. This Perspective describes ways the U.S. Department of Homeland Security can prevent or reduce, identify, and address such bias at various points in the process of acquiring these systems.

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  The U.S. Coast Guard Is Building an Icebreaker Fleet: What Comes Next? Issues and Challenges December 8, 2020

  Abbie Tingstad, Scott Savitz, Dulani Woods, Jeffrey A. Drezner

  Icebreaking has long been an important capability gap in U.S. polar operations. The authors of this Perspective recommend that the U.S. Coast Guard (1) assess needs for additional icebreaking capacity; (2) ensure that new vessels are built for a changing, multimission operating environment; and (3) consider other, related capability investments when planning. The Perspective includes short scenarios to illustrate potential needs for icebreakers.

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  Harassment and Discrimination on the Basis of Gender and Race/Ethnicity in the FEMA Workforce December 2, 2020

  Coreen Farris, Carra S. Sims, Terry L. Schell, Miriam Matthews, Sierra Smucker, Samantha Cohen, Owen Hall

  Researchers assessed the prevalence and characteristics of sexual harassment, gender discrimination, racial/ethnic harassment, and racial/ethnic discrimination at FEMA. They surveyed FEMA employees about these civil rights violations and about workplace climate. This report documents the survey results.

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  Harassment and Discrimination in the FEMA Workplace: Topline Results from the Workplace Survey Support Study December 2, 2020

  Coreen Farris, Carra S. Sims, Terry L. Schell, Miriam Matthews, Sierra Smucker, Samantha Cohen, Owen Hall

  This brief summarizes findings and recommendations from a study of the prevalence and characteristics of sexual harassment, gender discrimination, racial/ethnic harassment, and racial/ethnic discrimination at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

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  Recovery in the U.S. Virgin Islands: Progress, Challenges, and Options for the Future November 11, 2020

  Shelly Culbertson, Blas Nunez-Neto, Joie D. Acosta, Cynthia R. Cook, Andrew Lauland, Kristin J. Leuschner, Shanthi Nataraj, Benjamin Lee Preston, Susan A. Resetar, Adam C. Resnick, et al.

  This report provides analysis to help the U.S. Virgin Islands accelerate its recovery from 2017's Hurricanes Irma and Maria by identifying recovery goals, recovery accomplishments, and challenges. The authors focused on crosscutting capacities needed for implementation, infrastructure, and the economy and public services and provide 76 recommendations to enhance recovery efforts, including steps to support implementation.

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  Insuring Public Buildings, Contents, Vehicles, and Equipment Against Disasters: Current Practices of State and Local Government and Options for Closing the Insurance Gap October 9, 2020

  Lloyd Dixon, Jason Thomas Barnosky, Noreen Clancy

  Researchers worked to improve the understanding of state and local financial risk management practices and the role that the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Public Assistance program plays in them. They also examined several approaches for state and local governments to increase insurance coverage and the trade-offs associated with those approaches. This report documents the authors' methods, findings, and recommendations.

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  Recovery Planning for Natural Resources and Parks in Puerto Rico: Natural and Cultural Resources Sector Report, Volume I September 30, 2020

  Susan A. Resetar, Abbie Tingstad, Joshua Mendelsohn, Miriam E. Marlier, Beth E. Lachman, Katherine Anania, Chandra Garber, David M. Adamson

  Hurricanes Irma and Maria stressed and destroyed significant areas of Puerto Rico's natural resources, many of which were already strained by anthropogenic effects. This report presents information on the benefits of these resources, hurricane damage, and 25 recommended courses of action for restoring natural resources, managing solid waste, renewing parks, and improving economic opportunities.

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  Developing Recovery Options for Puerto Rico's Economic and Disaster Recovery Plan: Process and Methodology September 30, 2020

  This report summarizes the strategic planning process in support of the government of Puerto Rico in its development of a congressionally mandated recovery plan. Nearly 300 potential recovery actions were developed that Puerto Rico could take to repair damage from Hurricanes Irma and Maria and address longer-term economic recovery needs.

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  Modernizing Puerto Rico's Housing Sector Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria: Post-Storm Challenges and Potential Courses of Action September 30, 2020

  Noreen Clancy, Lloyd Dixon, Daniel Elinoff, Kathryn Kuznitsky, Sean McKenna

  Puerto Rico's housing sector was hit hard by Hurricanes Irma and Maria and needs a big fix. In this detailed and comprehensive analysis of the housing damage caused by the 2017 hurricanes, the authors make informed recovery recommendations for policymakers so they can repair and rebuild safe and affordable housing in Puerto Rico and create a modernized housing infrastructure that is more resilient to future natural hazards and code-compliant.

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  Public Buildings in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria: Prestorm Challenges, Hurricane Damage, and Suggested Courses of Action for Recovery September 30, 2020

  Tom LaTourrette, Benjamin M. Miller, Teddy Ulin, Kristin Van Abel, Krista S. Langeland, Nupur Nanda

  The government of Puerto Rico submitted a recovery plan to Congress in 2018 describing a strategic approach to recover from the 2017 hurricane destruction. HSOAC input provides a summary of damage to public buildings and the basis for 12 courses of action to repair hurricane damage and modernize the public building infrastructure to increase resilience to natural hazards, improve energy efficiency, and improve functionality and user experience.

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  After Hurricane Maria: Predisaster Conditions, Hurricane Damage, and Recovery Needs in Puerto Rico September 30, 2020

  Jordan R. Fischbach, Linnea Warren May, Katie Whipkey, Shoshana R. Shelton, Christine Anne Vaughan, Devin Tierney, Kristin J. Leuschner, Lisa S. Meredith, Hilary J. Peterson

  To support development of Puerto Rico's short- and long-term recovery and resilience plan, experts conducted a comprehensive assessment of the commonwealth's challenges and the damage caused by the 2017 hurricanes. They identified short- and longer-term needs for Puerto Rico to recover and to build resilience to future storms; economic, social, and environmental trends; and ongoing governance challenges. This report summarizes their work.

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  Building Back Locally: Supporting Puerto Rico's Municipalities in Post-Hurricane Reconstruction September 30, 2020

  Shelly Culbertson, John Bordeaux, Italo A. Gutierrez, Andrew Lauland, Kristin J. Leuschner, Blas Nunez-Neto, Lisa Saum-Manning

  In Puerto Rico's post-hurricane reconstruction, the 78 municipal governments will be responsible for an estimated $4 billion in reconstruction funds and will need to manage complex projects while coordinating with the government of Puerto Rico and federal government. The authors recommend ways to target federal and Puerto Rico government technical assistance where it is needed most to help the municipalities in their reconstruction efforts.

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  International Postdisaster Recoveries: Lessons for Puerto Rico on Supply-Chain Management and Recovery Governance September 30, 2020

  Jennifer D. P. Moroney, James A. Schear, Joie D. Acosta, Chandra Garber, Sarah Heintz, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Yun Kang, Samantha McBirney, Richard E. Neiman, Jr, Stephanie Pezard, et al.

  The authors analyze how effective supply-chain management and recovery governance have worked in postdisaster settings in four countries, providing positive and cautionary lessons and good practices that may be applied to Puerto Rico's recovery from Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Field research was conducted to assess recovery challenges and recommend measures to restore lives and livelihoods, while also improving resilience to future disasters.

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  Beyond Recovery: Transforming Puerto Rico's Water Sector in the Wake of Hurricanes Irma and Maria September 30, 2020

  Benjamin Lee Preston, Michelle E. Miro, Paul Brenner, Christopher K. Gilmore, John F. Raffensperger, Jaime Madrigano, Alexandra Huttinger, Michael Blackhurst, David Catt

  The 2017 hurricanes damaged Puerto Rico's water infrastructure and its water resources. This damage was attributed to existing vulnerability of infrastructure, direct hurricane damage, and indirect disruption stemming from damage in other sectors. The water sector recovery plan involves not only repairing hurricane-damaged structures and systems but also fixing the many legacy challenges in the water sector's operations and governance.

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  Logistics Analysis of Puerto Rico: Will the Seaborne Supply Chain of Puerto Rico Support Hurricane Recovery Projects? September 30, 2020

  Adam C. Resnick, Anthony DeCicco, Vikram Kilambi, Keenan D. Yoho, Raffaele Vardavas, Aaron C. Davenport

  Puerto Rico's seaborne logistics capacity is assessed in the context of the anticipated increase in imported materials used in recovery projects following Hurricane Maria. Key constraints at ports and on roads are identified. This analysis shows that the increased traffic from implementing the recovery plan can be supported with existing infrastructure using modest mitigation actions.

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  Assessing the Cost of Disaster Recovery and Identifying Funding Sources in the HSOAC Puerto Rico Economic and Disaster Recovery Plan Project September 30, 2020

  Michael Kennedy, David Metz, Elaine K. Dezenski, Joshua Birenbaum, Cedric Kenney

  This report describes the work done on estimating the costs of, and identifying potential funding sources for, Puerto Rico's economic and disaster recovery plan. Total estimated cost is $139 billion. Up to $94 billion of funding from the federal government and private insurance claims is estimated to be available. Sources to fill the gap include the Puerto Rico government, the private sector, public-private partnerships, and philanthropies.

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  Supporting a 21st Century Workforce in Puerto Rico: Challenges and Options for Improving Puerto Rico's Workforce System Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 September 30, 2020

  Gabriella C. Gonzalez, Kathryn A. Edwards, Melanie A. Zaber, Megan Andrew, Aaron Strong, Craig A. Bond

  A strategic goal of the post-hurricane recovery plan for Puerto Rico is developing a modern workforce. Authors describe a course of action for a workforce development system that addresses workforce shortages and brings longer-term benefits to individuals, the community, and the economy. This system includes strong K through postsecondary education and career pathways, and aligns training with the evolving labor market and local business needs.

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  Cultural and Historical Resources Recovery Planning in Puerto Rico: Natural and Cultural Resources Sector Report, Volume II September 30, 2020

  Susan A. Resetar, James V. Marrone, Joshua Mendelsohn, Amy Schwartzman, David M. Adamson

  Puerto Rico's cultural resources are integral to its sense of place, to community well-being, to tourism, and to the economy. Many of those resources were devastated in Hurricanes Irma and Maria. The authors present an overview of the island's cultural resources, storm-damage assessment findings, and detail recovery actions proposed in Puerto Rico's recovery plan.

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  Challenges and Opportunities for the Puerto Rico Economy: A Review of Evidence and Options Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 September 30, 2020

  Craig A. Bond, Aaron Strong, Troy D. Smith, Megan Andrew, John S. Crown, Kathryn A. Edwards, Gabriella C. Gonzalez, Italo A. Gutierrez, Lauren Kendrick, Jill E. Luoto, et al.

  The authors review Puerto Rico's economic history and compare observed economic indicators following the storms to counterfactual estimates to assess the real net impacts of the 2017 hurricanes. This analysis provides the context for the recovery plan for rebuilding a sustainable and healthy economic sector and whole of Puerto Rico.

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  Rebuilding Surface, Maritime, and Air Transportation in Puerto Rico After Hurricanes Irma and Maria: Supporting Documentation for the Puerto Rico Recovery Plan September 30, 2020

  Liisa Ecola, Aaron C. Davenport, Kenneth Kuhn, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Eric Cooper, Mark Barrett, Thomas F. Atkin, Jeffrey Kendall

  The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center was tasked with developing a long-range recovery plan for the damage caused in Puerto Rico by Hurricanes Irma and Maria. This report provides a comprehensive evaluation of the transportation sector and includes a description of prestorm transportation conditions; descriptions of damage and estimated costs to repair them; and 22 proposed courses of action across all transportation modes.

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  Health and Social Services in Puerto Rico Before and After Hurricane Maria: Predisaster Conditions, Hurricane Damage, and Themes for Recovery September 30, 2020

  Anita Chandra, Terry Marsh, Jaime Madrigano, Molly M. Simmons, Mahshid Abir, Edward W. Chan, Jamie Ryan, Nupur Nanda, Michelle D. Ziegler, Christopher Nelson

  Hurricane Maria magnified Puerto Rico's fragile system for delivering social, behavioral, and environmental health services, which were evidenced by chronic disease burdens, demographic transitions, and unmet health needs. The recovery plan outlines action strategies for building a robust health infrastructure, strengthening the health care workforce, expanding social service capacity, and investing in healthy communities.

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  Municipalities on the Front Lines of Puerto Rico's Recovery: Assessing Damage, Needs, and Opportunities for Recovery After Hurricane Maria September 30, 2020

  Blas Nunez-Neto, Andrew Lauland, Jair Aguirre, Gabriela Castro, Italo A. Gutierrez, Marielena Lara, Etienne Rosas, Beverly A. Weidmer

  Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center experts assessed Hurricanes Irma and Maria's effect on Puerto Rico's municipalities' ability to govern, deliver services, and recover from the damage they incurred. They created a framework for assessing municipalities' recovery and developed courses of action to address damage and improve municipal capacity.

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