Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy

Competing Visions of Restraint

Given that restraint is a key position in the grand strategy debate, this article explores the variations within restraint's big tent in greater detail. Drawing on writings by and interviews with advocates of restraint, researchers identify the underlying beliefs that have led these disparate groups to converge on restraint.

Nov 19, 2024

Competing Visions of Restraint for U.S. Foreign Policy

This brief summarizes ideas that have led to support for a U.S. grand strategy of restraint, which involves using diplomacy to settle differences, reducing forward presence, downgrading or ending commitments, and raising the bar for the use of force.

Jan 9, 2025

How Might NATO Allies Respond if the United States Retrenches from Europe?

RAND researchers explored the potential for grand strategies and policy alternatives to gain traction in the second Trump administration and examined how European allies might respond to these alternatives.

Oct 8, 2025

Planning for the Aftermath: Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War

U.S. policy choices made at the conclusions of past wars have had enduring consequences. Although there is no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S. policymakers should begin considering a postwar Russia strategy now.

Feb 9, 2024

The Day After: Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia

How should the United States deal with Russia after the war in Ukraine finally ends? And how might U.S. policy during the conflict shape the postwar world?

Feb 9, 2024

Like-Minded Allies? Indo-Pacific Partners' Views on Possible Changes in the U.S. Relationship with Taiwan

Debates about options for future U.S. policy toward Taiwan tend to focus on how each would affect China's calculus on invading the island, but another important consideration is how U.S. allies in the region would respond. The authors of this report examine how Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines would react to the United States signaling either an increase or a decrease in its support of Taiwan.

Jul 20, 2023

What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made a constructive U.S.-Russia relationship implausible for the foreseeable future. But once the fighting stops, the United States will continue to face long-term incentives to improve the stability and predictability of its relations with Moscow.

May 17, 2023

Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach

After the Ukraine war ends, U.S.-Russian relations will remain hostile. But future U.S. policymakers will also need to balance competing demands and might therefore consider a peacetime limited less-hardline approach toward Russia. Using four historical case studies, the authors found that such approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains without emboldening the rival. But such policies may not prevent later deterioration of the relationship.

May 17, 2023

Avoiding a Long War in Ukraine

The United States has a strong interest in avoiding a long war in Ukraine. Although Washington cannot alone determine the war's duration, it can take steps to make an eventual negotiated peace more likely.

Jan 25, 2023

What Would a Strategy of Restraint Mean for U.S. Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific?

If the United States adopted a grand strategy of restraint in the Asia-Pacific, how would its posture in the region change and how would it determine when to use force? What warfighting scenarios involving the defense of Japan could guide defense planning?

Mar 31, 2022

Implementing Restraint: Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint

Questions about U.S. grand strategy and its associated costs have taken on new urgency because of the economic effects of the pandemic. If the United States adopted a realist grand strategy of restraint, it would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments.

Jan 21, 2021

Anticipating Allies’ Responses to U.S. Retrenchment: Lessons from Limited Military Withdrawals During the Cold War

The Trump administration has signaled the possibility of retrenchment, but evaluating whether it serves U.S. interests involves considering a variety of effects. RAND researchers analyzed one aspect of this broader calculation: how retrenchment affects the behaviors of U.S. allies.

Jul 8, 2025

How Allies Have Responded to Past U.S. Retrenchment

A review of past instances of U.S. retrenchment provides insights into how allies might respond to shifts in strategy today. Cases of limited U.S. retrenchment from West Germany, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in the 1960s and 1970s offer important lessons.

Jul 8, 2025

Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That's the Wrong Question

Authors question four increasingly influential assumptions western leaders make about Russia, all of which are now motivating proposals to take a hardline approach toward Russia after the Ukraine war ends.

Sep 20, 2024

Escalation in the War in Ukraine

Despite the devastating losses following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both sides have refrained from pursuing several escalatory options to date. This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, including the prospects for escalation to Russian nuclear use.

Sep 21, 2023

Economic Benefits of U.S. Alliances and Military Engagement

Decisions about alliances and forward military presence should be based on a range of factors beyond potential economic benefits. But there is evidence that military engagement has historically helped the U.S. economy by promoting international commerce.

Sep 1, 2022

Weighing Entanglement Risks of U.S. Security Relationships

Some analysts argue that security relationships cause the United States to adopt its partners' interests, incentivize allies and partners to engage in reckless behavior, and risk getting dragged into conflicts. Others contend that the United States avoids entanglement by keeping its own interests in mind.

Nov 22, 2021

How Does Defense Spending Affect Economic Growth?

Prioritizing defense spending over infrastructure investment might undermine economic growth. Given that the size and health of the U.S. economy are ultimately the basis for the nation's military power, policymakers should consider that the economic effects of defense spending have consequences for long-term security.

May 7, 2021

How to Deliver on NATO 3.0

The Trump administration’s “NATO 3.0” concept calls for European allies to assume primary responsibility for their own conventional defense while the United States redirects resources to other priorities and pursues diplomacy with Russia. Unfortunately, the administration’s pursuit of other goals is undercutting this vision.

Here's Why Trump's Foreign Policy Is Hard to Pin Down

While some view President-elect Trump as an isolationist, this characterization overlooks his complex foreign policy. He may adopt restraint in certain areas, but he is likely to encounter strong pressure for deep engagement, especially regarding military involvement in Europe and the Middle East.

An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine

While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.

Foreign Affairs asks: Will Ukraine Wind Up Making Territorial Concessions to Russia?

Miranda Priebe, director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy, joins other global security experts in responding to a Foreign Affairs poll asking whether Ukraine will wind up making territorial concessions to Russia.

Don't Rule Out Diplomacy in Ukraine: Biden's Current Strategy Risks Escalation and Forever War

Miranda Priebe, Director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy writes in Foreign Affairs with researcher Samuel Charap that by laying the groundwork for negotiations now, the United States, together with its Ukrainian partners and its allies, could minimize the risk of these dangerous outcomes and help chart a path toward ending the war.