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Latest Arroyo Publications

Latest Arroyo Publications

Modernization and Transformation Program
The Modernization and Transformation program addresses the critical question of how the Army must transform its organization—people, processes, industrial partnerships, force structure, and resource allocation—to remain effective in an era of strategic competition, fiscal constraint, and technological advancements.
Feb 1, 2026
Future Wars Program
The Future Wars program serves as the Army's intellectual vanguard, exploring how wars will be fought, what capabilities will be required, and how operational concepts must evolve to ensure battlefield dominance against peer and near-peer adversaries.
Feb 1, 2026
Understanding the "Will to Fight"
Will to fight helps determine whether a military unit — or a nation — stays in the fight and also how well it fights. Researchers explored this phenomenon to better understand and influence the will to fight at both the national level and at the tactical and operational levels.
Oct 4, 2025
Sustaining U.S. Army Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Potential Roles of Allies and Partners
Previous research has identified that logistics and sustainment shortfalls are a critical barrier to U.S. operational success in the Indo-Pacific. Researchers identify the potential for Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and South Korea to support logistics and sustainment activities.
Jun 5, 2025
Insights on Human-Machine Integration for the U.S. Army
Advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics suggest that the profession of arms will soon include integrating human soldiers with machines. Researchers investigate the kinds of difficulties that the Army might encounter as it attempts to pair humans with AI algorithms.
Jun 2, 2025
Electronic warfare and spectrum management considerations for small uncrewed aircraft systems in divisional brigades
The authors assessed challenges and opportunities related to integrating small uncrewed aircraft systems with electronic warfare capabilities in divisional brigades and identified ways to make XVIII Airborne Corps units more effective in meeting spectrum management challenges.
Apr 8, 2025
Options to improve acquisition and accountability for small uncrewed aircraft systems in divisional brigades
The authors assessed the implications of integrating additional uncrewed aircraft systems (UASs) for reconnaissance, fires, and other purposes below the division level. They derived implications for institutional and unit training and other institutional functions needed for success.
Apr 8, 2025
A survey of small uncrewed aircraft systems
The authors identified options for the Army to field, and employ small, uncrewed aircraft systems (SUAS) including commercial off-the-shelf systems, the Defense Innovation Unit's Blue Uncrewed Aircraft Systems list, and the commercial market overall.
Apr 8, 2025
Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems in Divisional Brigades
In this overview volume of a five-part series, the authors present their findings on how the U.S. Army can improve its training, acquisition, and use of small uncrewed aircraft systems to better prepare for combat operations.
Apr 8, 2025
Examining Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems in Divisional Brigades
The XVIII Airborne Corps asked RAND researchers to identify options for the Army to select, field, and employ Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (SUAS) and to assess the implications of integrating additional SUAS for reconnaissance, fires, and other purposes below the division echelon.
Apr 8, 2025
Small uncrewed aerial system (UAS) and counter-UAS training
Expanded employment of uncrewed aircraft systems at scale brings implications across doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy (DOTMLPF-P). Researchers examine training issues and counter-uncrewed aircraft systems (C-UAS) considerations.
Apr 8, 2025
Evaluating the Army Combat Fitness Test
RAND research teams conducted an independent review of the Army Combat Fitness Test (ACFT), and provide recommendations to support the Army's implementation decisions.
Mar 10, 2025
Understanding the Link Between the Army Combat Fitness Test and Personnel Health and Injuries
One of the Army's stated goals for the Army Combat Fitness Test (ACFT) was to reduce preventable injuries. While there are limited data available, research suggests that the ACFT could lead to a long-term reduction in injury rates. Researchers recommend policy actions to reduce injuries and monitor soldiers at risk.
Mar 10, 2025
Reassessing the Basic Allowance for Housing for Army Personnel in a Rapidly Changing Housing Market
Rising housing prices and inflation since 2020 have brought attention to the adequacy of the Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) for military personnel. RAND researchers assessed the adequacy of BAH and the BAH rate-setting methodology from the standpoint of Army personnel, in the context of recent changes in the housing market.
Jan 27, 2025
Saving the Government Money: Examples from RAND's FFRDCs
RAND's defense-related federally funded research and development centers apply research capital they have developed over the years to help decisionmakers solve problems and often save money as well. This publication lists and briefly summarizes some RAND projects undertaken over the past several years that have helped save the government money or that have identified ways to do so.
Jan 15, 2025
A Modernized Enterprise Army Modeling and Simulation Concept
RAND researchers explored enterprise concepts to modernize the U.S. Army's modeling and simulation (M&S) infrastructure. The Modernized Enterprise Army M&S concept will modernize the development and employment of M&S for six Army communities: acquisition, analysis, experimentation, intelligence, test and evaluation, and training.
Jan 14, 2025
Setting Higher Close Combat Standards for the Army Combat Fitness Test
The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 calls for higher minimum fitness standards for close combat soldiers. This report details evidence to inform Army Combat Fitness Test standards and for facilitating implementation.
Dec 20, 2024
Devising Sustainable and Healthy Operations for the Army Caisson Horses of Arlington National Cemetery
In 2022, the deaths of two horses revealed issues within the U.S. Army Caisson Detachment, which conducts full honor funerals at Arlington National Cemetery. This report presents findings on the causes of these issues — including resource limitations, contrasting missions for the soldiers, and insufficient equine expertise in the unit — and guidance for developing a horse-first approach that will make the Army's caisson operations more sustainable.
Dec 9, 2024
Expanding the Geographic Footprint of Army JROTC
The Assistant Secretary of the Army for Manpower & Reserve Affairs asked RAND to inform the Army about where it might locate new, sustainable Junior Reserve Officers' Training Corps (JROTC) sites and how to grow the program's instructor cadre.
Sep 25, 2024
Beyond Cost-Per-Unit: Economic Analysis and Metrics in Defense Decisionmaking
This report presents strengths and limitations of cost-effectiveness analysis and related metrics to inform the U.S. Army and Department of Defense community about whether, when, and how to usefully employ them for capability investment decisions.
Jun 10, 2024
Chinese Military Insecurities for Overseas Bases in Wartime
The People's Republic of China is brokering international access agreements to expand its security footprint overseas and extend the reach of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). While these bases' utility in peacetime is clear, their utility in wartime is less so.
Jun 7, 2024
A Leader's Guide to Interoperability
This brief summarizes RAND's research on interoperability, provides guidance for military leaders to institute policies that prioritize interoperability, and explains how to include partners and monitor progress.
Apr 4, 2024
Army Explosive Ordnance Disposal in Large-Scale Combat Operations: Can the Planned Force Meet Tomorrow's Requirements?
The Army and its explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) forces are changing to address large-scale combat operations. This report examines the role of the Army’s explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) forces in large-scale combat operations and considers the structure, manning, and governance of the EOD force.
Mar 6, 2024
Assessing the Value of Overseas Military Campaigning in Strategic Competition
RAND researchers examine trade-offs between the contributions of campaigning instruments to U.S. strategic goals and their costs, evaluating which instruments appear to be most effective and under what conditions.
Dec 13, 2023
Striving for Diversity: Observations on Racial and Ethnic Talent in the Regular Army's Senior Officer Corps
The U.S. Army aims to recruit and retain a force that reflects the diversity of the population. While racial and ethnic minority officers are more likely to choose to remain in the Army than white counterparts, their promotion rates are lower.
Nov 30, 2023
Valuing Army Installation Resilience Investments for Natural Hazards
Army installations experience significant damage and mission impacts from natural hazard events. Researchers assess Army installation vulnerabilities to natural hazards, and recommend ways the Army can reduce associated costs and improve data analytics for resilience investments.
Nov 6, 2023
Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia
Even before Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian activity in Syria and Libya has raised the prospect that the United States might find itself militarily entangled with Russia in various global hotspots. Researchers analyzed historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts to identify the key drivers of possible flashpoints.
Sep 25, 2023
Can Machine Learning Improve Military Decisionmaking?
Machine learning has great potential to enable military decisionmaking at the operational level of war but only when paired with human analysts who possess detailed understanding of the context behind a given problem.
Sep 19, 2023
Ukraine Is Running Out of Ammo. The West Doesn't Have Enough
Bradley Martin, director of the RAND National Security Supply Chain Institute, is among the experts interviewed in a Semafor documentary about the challenge of supplying Ukraine with ammunition.
May 23, 2023
U.S. Army Roles in the Indo Pacific
RAND researchers designed three scenarios to examine the Army's role in the Indo-Pacific out to 2035. Their findings are incorporated into a new report that describes potential trends, enduring constraints, and Indo-Pacific ally and partner dynamics that will shape where, when, and how the Joint Force might operate within the theater.
May 5, 2023
Twenty Years After the Iraq War, a Q&A with RAND Experts
On the 20th anniversary of the war in Iraq, RAND experts discussed what the war means for the people of Iraq and the veterans who fought there, what lessons the U.S. military learned (or did not learn), and what effect it has had on the balance of power in the Middle East and the global reputation of the United States.
Mar 21, 2023
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition
Why do external states provide military support to parties to a civil war? A quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars.
Mar 9, 2023
Identifying Types of Sexual Assault and Harassment in the Army Can Inform Prevention Efforts
Sexual assault prevention efforts in the Army are heavily oriented to the kinds of assaults seen in college populations. But in the Army, a much larger fraction of sexual assaults have male victims; are done with the intent to abuse, bully, or haze; involve multiple perpetrators; do not involve alcohol; or occur in the workplace.
Feb 24, 2023
How Russia's war in Ukraine has evolved after one year of fighting
Senior Historian Gian Gentile, associate director of RAND Arroyo Center, joins host John Dickerson on CBS News "Prime Time" to discuss the war in Ukraine.
Feb 21, 2023
Today's Army Spouse Panel Survey: Impact of COVID-19
COVID-19 has had a broad and continuing impact across society. How did the pandemic affect Army spouses with respect to employment, child care, financial, and other concerns in 2020 and 2021?
Jan 17, 2023
New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific
This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China.
Dec 14, 2022
The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations
The authors develop a framework of 17 indicators to assess valuable attributes of potential host nations from Beijing's perspective, focusing not only on the utility of host nations (desirability) but also on China's ability to secure access (feasibility). They recommend strategies for the U.S. government, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Army to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.
Dec 8, 2022
What Are China's Global Basing Ambitions?
China appears likely to seek military access and basing in its immediate vicinity and in the Middle East, but parts of Africa and the Indo-Pacific are also of interest. The United States should carefully prioritize where to resist Chinese access and basing and where to reinforce U.S. relationships.
Dec 8, 2022
Black Veterans Generally Have a Better Quality of Life Than Black Non-Veterans
Black veterans tend to have higher incomes and higher rates of home ownership than Black Americans who are not veterans. But the economic picture is less positive when compared with White Americans. Also, Black veterans experience more health concerns than Black or White civilians.
Nov 9, 2022
How China Might React to Shifting U.S. Posture in the Indo-Pacific
As the U.S. military weighs posture enhancements in the Indo-Pacific to counter China's military development and influence, understanding how China is likely to react to these changes is critical. A new framework offers key factors that U.S. policymakers and military planners should consider.
Oct 25, 2022
Forecasting the Demand for U.S. Ground Forces
Military planners need to preemptively build, shape, and prepare U.S. forces for the kinds of missions they are most likely to encounter in the future. Researchers used a dynamic forecasting model to project future U.S. interventions through the year 2040, and assess potential demands for U.S. ground forces.
Jul 6, 2022
Forecasting the Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: An Interactive Tool
This interactive tool uses a dynamic forecasting model to project future demand for U.S. ground forces. The resulting forecasts can help inform U.S. military decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.
Jul 6, 2022
The Impact of Mindfulness Meditation Programs on Performance-Related Outcomes
This report presents results from a systematic review and meta-analyses of research examining how mindfulness meditation affects 13 performance-related outcomes of interest to the U.S. Army and broader military.
May 10, 2022
Independent Review of the Army Combat Fitness Test
The U.S. Army has a new fitness test for the first time in 40 years. A review finds that more evidence is needed to prove that all six test events adequately predict performance on combat tasks and that combat standards are a necessary metric for all Army jobs. Women, National Guard troops, and others are passing the test at lower rates.
Mar 23, 2022
Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia
U.S. forward military posture has the potential to deter Russian hostile measures such as economic coercion, political subversion, and military intimidation. But employed inappropriately, it could also provoke them. What can the United States do to reduce the likelihood of escalation?
Jan 20, 2022
How Do Army Spouses Find the Help They Need?
The U.S. Army provides many resources to help soldiers and their families cope with military life. But Army spouses typically learn about services through word-of-mouth rather than through program outreach efforts. The Army could do more to get the word out about available assistance.
Dec 15, 2021
Weighing the Trade-Offs of U.S. Military Interventions
Military interventions can be effective at advancing U.S. interests in some contexts and situations. But they can have the opposite effect in other cases, creating long-term entanglements and increasing economic and strategic costs without realizing U.S. objectives.
Dec 13, 2021
The U.S. Army's Role in the Pacific Theater: A Panel Discussion with General Charles A. Flynn
Speaking at a RAND Corporation event, General Charles A. Flynn, head of the U.S. Army Pacific, said that the nation's land force provides two distinct values in a maritime region: (1) supporting allies and partners and (2) providing enabling capabilities to the Joint Force, including sustainment and logistics.
Dec 6, 2021
Forecasting Religious Affiliation in the United States Army
Changes in the religious composition of the United States could affect the religious composition of recruits into the U.S. Army. This, in turn, could significantly alter the religious needs of the Army population. How has the religious composition of enlisted soldiers and of officers changed over time?
Nov 29, 2021
Soldier Preferences and Retention Effects of Changes in Army Reserve Training Requirements
Soldiers in the U.S. Army Reserve have traditionally been required to attend 39 days of training per year. However, across the readiness cycle, units may have their requirements changed with minimal notice. How do changes in training requirements affect a soldier's interest in staying in the Reserves?
Nov 16, 2021

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