The authors develop a framework of 17 indicators to assess valuable attributes of potential host nations from Beijing's perspective, focusing not only on the utility of host nations (desirability) but also on China's ability to secure access (feasibility). They recommend strategies for the U.S. government, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Army to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.

Cover: The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access
Read Online

The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access

A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations

by Cristina L. Garafola, Timothy R. Heath, Christian Curriden, Meagan L. Smith, Derek Grossman, Nathan Chandler, Stephen Watts

Download

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 5.5 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback136 pages $42.00 $33.60 20% Web Discount

Research Questions

  1. How are China's national interests evolving, and how do these changes drive China to seek overseas military access and basing?
  2. Which countries or regions is China most likely to pursue for overseas basing and access, and what types of operations may Chinese forces carry out at these overseas locations?
  3. What are the implications for the U.S. government, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and the U.S. Army?

While China's growing economic power began reshaping the global economy in the 2000s and Beijing's foreign policy approach has increasingly sought to reshape the international order since the 2010s, the future role of China's rapidly improving military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), on the global stage remains unclear. However, General Secretary Xi Jinping's 2017 assertion that the PLA will transform into “world-class forces” by 2049 implies that China will seek to develop at least some level of global military power over the next three decades.

This study aims to understand where China might seek to gain basing and access for PLA forces abroad and what types of operations it might carry out there. The authors develop a framework to systematically assess valuable attributes from Beijing's perspective, focusing on the utility of potential host nations (desirability) and on China's ability to secure access (feasibility). They evaluate 108 countries across three priority regions — the Middle East, Africa, and the broader Indo-Pacific — and the respective U.S. combatant command areas of responsibility in which each country is located.

The authors match 17 framework indicators, focusing on the 2030–2040 time frame, to available quantitative and qualitative data to assess and rank potential host nations. They discuss implications and recommend strategies for the U.S. government, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Army to better understand China's plans for additional overseas basing and access and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.

Key Findings

Expanding Chinese economic interests drive requirements for overseas military power

  • Beijing's primary motives for expanding PLA presence abroad are fundamentally based on achieving domestic priorities, such as economic growth, to sustain the regime's legitimacy and are, at most, only secondarily about competing with or imposing costs on the United States or any other country.

A mix of factors shapes China's pursuit of overseas basing or access

  • A growing body of literature by Chinese military analysts and academic researchers suggests potential criteria for overseas PLA locations and options to prioritize locations, such as military and economic utility.
  • China's pursuit of overseas basing and access is likely to diversify beyond the PLA Navy to encompass other services, as well as a wide array of forces and units.

The framework identifies 24 countries that may be especially well suited to China's pursuit of overseas basing and access

  • Four countries in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific scored in the top 25 percent of all countries: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Myanmar.
  • Among the 24 overall top-scorers, countries within the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility appear to present especially compelling options and variety for PLA basing and access.
  • An additional 13 countries that scored relatively poorly in terms of feasibility may offer options for Beijing, depending on decisions made by those countries' leaders in the next two decades.

A growing overseas PLA presence is not a matter of if, but when

  • There are strong indications that Djibouti will not remain China's sole overseas military facility.

Recommendations

  • The U.S. government and DoD could adapt the framework to develop indications and warning for new overseas PLA locations. Such a framework might be used to inform U.S. diplomatic and other initiatives intended to deny China military access in key states, impose additional costs on China if its military expansion appears threatening, and slow its rate of advance.
  • The U.S. Army should prioritize countries of concern for Army organizations and forces. Building on the countries identified in the framework as priority host nations that China might pursue, the Army could assess the implications of China securing a base or long-term access by performing country- or facility-level risk assessments for specific mission sets that it currently conducts or may be called on to conduct in the future, during periods of both crisis and competition.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    China's Overseas Interests and Requirements for Global Military Power

  • Chapter Three

    A Framework for Assessing China's Pursuit of Overseas Basing and Access Locations

  • Chapter Four

    Evaluating Potential Host Nations as Future Chinese Basing and Access Locations

  • Chapter Five

    Synthesis of Findings and Recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Methodology for Basing and Access Framework

  • Appendix B

    Country Scores

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was sponsored by U.S. Army Pacific and conducted by the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program with the RAND Arroyo Center.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.