Cristina L. Garafola

People's Liberation Army Reforms and Their Ramifications

The newest round of reforms to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is expected to improve the military's efficiency, warfighting capability, and political loyalty, but entrenched interests within the PLA could lead to reluctance within the military to adjust to new realities.

How Do Chinese Surface-to-Air Missile Forces Train?

Surface-to-air missile (SAM) forces play a crucial role in Chinese military planning. Recent training activity indicates that PLAAF SAM units' operational readiness and capabilities may vary depending on their location and the time of year.

China Signals Resolve with Bomber Flights Over the South China Sea

Since the PCA tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines' case on July 12, invalidating many of China's claims in the South China Sea, Beijing has sought to demonstrate its military strength in the region. The PLAAF's H-6K has played a key role.

Will the PLA Reforms Succeed?

Reforms within the Chinese People's Liberation Army are in the process of delivering sweeping changes to its day-to-day operations, despite concerns held by some military members. Whether or not the overall implementation is successful as envisioned, assessing the operational implications of the reforms will require more time.

Aung San Suu Kyi's Trip to China: Sino-Myanmar Relations as the Countdown to the November Elections Begins

For Aung San Suu Kyi and the rest of the National League for Democracy (NLD) delegation, meeting with Chinese leadership provided a forum for bilateral engagement with one of Myanmar's most important neighbors in the region, relations that will expand given the NLD's likely success at the polls in November.

Research Brief

Managing the Escalation Risks of U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific

This brief describes how the United States can select and shape its military activities in the Indo-Pacific region to deter Chinese aggression against U.S. allies and partners while also limiting the risks of escalatory Chinese reactions.

Report

China's Global Basing Ambitions: Defense Implications for the United States

The authors examine China's growing overseas interests, attributes of potential host nations, and potential power projection operations that the People's Liberation Army may carry out abroad. They also draw lessons from historical case studies.

Report

Implications of a Global People's Liberation Army: Historical Lessons for Responding to China's Long-Term Global Basing Ambitions

The authors examine three case studies among the United States' competitors to help anticipate what Chinese overseas access and basing might look like in the 2030s while assessing U.S. risks and opportunities posed by Chinese military expansion.

Report

The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations

Using a framework of 17 indicators, the authors assess and rank potential host nations for Chinese overseas basing and access. They recommend steps to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.

Report

Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific

This report assesses how China may react to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of factors likely to determine Chinese responses and advises how the characteristics of activities may affect the risk of escalation.

Report

Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements

This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The authors apply the framework to hypothetical posture enhancements to offer insights.

Report

Bridging the Gap: Assessing U.S. Business Community Support for U.S.-China Competition

The authors assess how the U.S. business community viewed Trump administration policies designed to counter China's anticompetitive economic behaviors and how to improve support from the business community in U.S. competition with China.

Report

Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China's Coercion Against U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

This report examines how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.

Research Brief

A New Framework for Understanding and Countering China's Gray Zone Tactics

This brief presents a framework for understanding how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.

Report

America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity

This report describes the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.

Journal Article

Chinese Perceptions of and Responses to US Conventional Military Power

Chinese analysts view the U.S. military not only as a model for emulation but also as a serious threat, and thus China has developed capabilities designed to deter or counter U.S. military intervention.

Report

The Chinese Air Force's First Steps Toward Becoming an Expeditionary Air Force

This is one of four reports based on RAND Project AIR FORCE Strategy and Doctrine Program research that assesses notable developments and implications of China's emerging aerospace expeditionary and power-projection capabilities.

Research Brief

Domestic Factors Could Accelerate the Evolution of China's Nuclear Posture

This brief discusses how domestic factors could influence China's evolving nuclear deterrent.

Report

China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States

This report analyzes international and domestic factors that will affect China's approach to nuclear deterrence, how those drivers may evolve over the next 15 years, and what impact they are likely to have.

Report

Training the People's Liberation Army Air Force Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) Forces

This report analyzes key trends and themes in China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) surface-to-air missile (SAM) unit training.

Journal Article

China's Search for a "Strategic Air Force"

China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has undergone a transformation over the past two decades. As it continues to modernize, it is focused on becoming a strategic air force.

Report

War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable

A Sino-U.S. war could take various, and unintended, paths. Because intense, reciprocal conventional counterforce attacks could inflict heavy losses and costs on both sides, leaders need options and channels to contain and terminate fighting.

Journal Article

China Signals Resolve with Bomber Flights Over the South China Sea

An unprecedented display of Chinese strategic systems over disputed territories in the South China Sea reflects China's efforts to signal its resolve following a diplomatic defeat.