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Taiwan

Taiwan became the primary stronghold of the Republic of China following the Communist party's rise in mainland China in 1949. RAND has analyzed shifts in U.S. diplomatic and military policy toward Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the decades and, in recent years, has examined Taiwan's rapid economic development, gradual political liberalization, and efforts to achieve independence from the PRC.

Commentary

A Tale of Two Cities China Ignores at Its Peril

Beijing may believe that, eventually, Taiwanese politics will turn in its favor. But it should consider experiences from the other two territories currently living under the formula—Hong Kong and Macau—to better understand why “one country, two systems” will never work in Taiwan, regardless of politics.

Sep 12, 2019
Commentary

Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

Why does the U.S. sell arms to Taiwan? And what is the impact on the cross-Strait military balance? Taiwan's arms purchase reflects a continuing concern over Beijing's military intentions; a balancing of operational and political considerations; a commitment by the United States to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself; and an American refusal to “stand down” in the face of China's aggressive behavior and coercion of Indo-Pacific democracies.

Aug 9, 2019
Commentary

Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail

Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.

Jul 3, 2019
Commentary

One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems

The enormous protests in Hong Kong since spring have led to fresh fears about the viability of China's "one country, two systems" policy. It's an idea that Macau and Hong Kong officially subscribe to and Taiwan fiercely resists—but one increasingly questioned from all sides.

Jun 21, 2019
Commentary

A Taiwan Diplomatic Victory Over China Could Be Inevitable

It is likely that Taipei will lose diplomatic allies unless a cross-Strait agreement is reached on the 1992 Consensus. But it is perhaps equally inevitable that Taiwan will convince at least one or more states to recognize Taiwan over China. Such a development would help counter the narrative that Taiwan sovereignty is doomed.

Mar 21, 2019
Report

Report

Countering China's Efforts to Isolate Taiwan Diplomatically in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Role of Development Assistance and Disaster Relief

Taiwan provides development assistance and disaster relief programs in Latin America and the Caribbean. This report considers how Taiwan can optimize its help to this region to ensure that it gets the maximum diplomatic value for its generosity.

Mar 13, 2019
Commentary

Is a Sustainable Peace Possible in the Taiwan Strait?

Between now and the next Taiwanese presidential election in 2020, the prospects of forging a sustainable peace between Taiwan and China are exceptionally low. Both Chinese President Xi and Taiwanese President Tsai are dug into their respective positions.

Jan 7, 2019
Commentary

Small States Can Use Naval Mines and Unmanned Vehicles to Deter Maritime Aggression

Small coastal nations face potential threats from larger, more powerful adversaries. Their coastlines represent vulnerabilities that a foe may seek to exploit. But these nations can hinder and deter potential aggressors by using less expensive systems, such as naval mines and unmanned vehicles.

Jul 16, 2018
Commentary

Beijing's Threats Against Taiwan Are Deadly Serious

China's perception of the political status of Taiwan and how close Taipei and Washington have become has come to dominate cross-strait relations. Taiwan and the United States should prepare for greater hostility in the coming years, almost certainly lasting until the next Taiwan presidential election in 2020.

May 22, 2018
Commentary

China Is Tightening the Screws on Taiwan. Will Trump Act and Risk Losing Beijing?

The United States should consider ways to strengthen its engagement with Taiwan on defense and security issues that go beyond arms sales. Washington will need to do more to help Taiwan deal with other forms of Chinese pressure as well.

Feb 22, 2018
Commentary

Why China Should (Still) Feel Good About Taiwan… but Maybe Not for Long

Chinese leaders have ample reason to feel good about Taiwan, namely because Taiwanese President Tsai had been focusing her energy on stabilizing cross-Strait relations based on the status quo rather than moving toward independence. But because of its pressure tactics, Beijing may inadvertently push Taiwan in a more extreme direction.

Jan 24, 2018
Commentary

Chinese Bomber Flights Around Taiwan: For What Purpose?

Recent bomber flights near Taiwan represent the most concerted training regimen yet aimed at improving Chinese airpower. China seeks to enhance the PLA Air Force's capabilities and signal Beijing's will to defend its territorial claims against the U.S. and its regional allies and partners, especially Taiwan and Japan.

Sep 13, 2017
Commentary

Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context

Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review is consistent with past reviews on defense strategy, reform of the military service system, and defense budget constraints. It also emphasizes the importance to President Tsai of Taiwan's domestic defense industry and shows uncertainty about U.S. Asia policy.

Jun 14, 2017
Commentary

Correspondence: Stability or Volatility Across the Taiwan Strait?

Prolonged tensions — even possibly amounting to a cross-strait cold peace — are likely if China's President Xi Jinping and Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen cannot reach basic agreement on Taiwan's sovereignty.

May 10, 2017
Testimony

Chinese Political and Military Thinking Regarding Taiwan and East and South China Seas

Official Chinese documents and scholarly writings provide insight into how Chinese leaders consider potential conflict with Taiwan and in the East and South China Seas—and how they might regard escalation in any conflict involving U.S. forces.

Apr 13, 2017
Commentary

Why China Will Not Unify with Taiwan by 2020

The prospects for peaceful unification of China and Taiwan continue to dim. Nothing Beijing has tried to woo or coerce Taiwan has worked. For those determined to compel Taiwan's unification, military subjugation remains a last option. But it would only worsen China's security environment.

Mar 21, 2017
Commentary

Why China Should Feel Good About Taiwan

Chinese leaders should seek to engage in good-faith discussions with Taiwanese counterparts. Beijing should also recognize that Tsai's tentativeness about the new U.S. administration could change if cross-Strait military tensions escalate.

Feb 22, 2017
Report

Transforming Taiwan's Reserve Force

As the political-military challenge from China grows, Taiwan's reserve force may need to play a more prominent role in Taipei's approach to deterring Chinese aggression. Changing its reserve force size, structure, roles, missions, equipment, and training could help Taiwan offset PLA advantages.

Feb 22, 2017
Commentary

History and Current Developments Regarding Taiwan's Coast Guard

As Asia-Pacific countries develop policies to regulate maritime zones of jurisdiction, the importance of coast guards as instruments of state policy has been growing. Taiwan's Coast Guard is an increasingly effective force facilitating the protection and regulation of Taiwanese maritime rights and interests in the East and South China Sea.

Feb 15, 2017
Report

Report

Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume II: Trends in Force Projection Against Potential Adversaries

This book describes scenarios to test whether the anti-access and area-denial threat to U.S. force projection is growing more severe. They describe plausible U.S. and adversary military actions given current operational capabilities and approaches.

Feb 8, 2017

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