Taiwan

Taiwan became the primary stronghold of the Republic of China following the Communist party's rise in mainland China in 1949. RAND has analyzed shifts in U.S. diplomatic and military policy toward Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the decades and, in recent years, has examined Taiwan's rapid economic development, gradual political liberalization, and efforts to achieve independence from the PRC.

  • The Kuomintang party headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, August 9, 2004, Photo by Alan Chan / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

    Commentary

    Taiwan’s KMT May Have a Serious '1992 Consensus' Problem

    The 1992 Consensus is an agreement between the Kuomintang opposition party in Taiwan and mainland Chinese authorities on the existence of only “One China.” Maintaining the 1992 Consensus as the cornerstone of the Kuomintang's platform has not helped the party's cause, and more importantly, has probably done the opposite.

    Sep 25, 2020

  • U.S. Navy vessels in the Philippine Sea, November, 2018, photo by MC2 Kaila V. Peters/U.S. Navy

    Commentary

    Ambiguity Has Its Uses

    As China's thirst to resolve the Taiwan issue intensifies, the United States' halfhearted commitment to the island will become increasingly perilous: too weak to deter Chinese aggression but strong enough to drag the United States into a war. No U.S. approach to Taiwan will offer a perfect guarantee of peace. But the United States has many options short of the provocative, costly, and diplomatically risky step of an unconditional security pledge.

    Sep 24, 2020

  • U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar meets with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at the presidential office, in Taipei, Taiwan, August 10, 2020, photo courtesy of the Taiwan Presidential Office

    Commentary

    Secretary Azar's Taiwan Visit Should Be Celebrated—for the Right Reasons

    HHS Secretary Alex Azar's August 9th visit to Taiwan should be celebrated by Taipei and Washington as it presents the latest evidence that bilateral relations are significantly strengthening. But Taiwan should view the United States' moves to bolster bilateral ties with some measure of trepidation. U.S. objectives with Taiwan over the past few years remain unclear.

    Aug 21, 2020

  • Blog

    Air Travel Data to Predict COVID Risk, Heatwave Planning, Caregiver Time Off: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on using air travel data to predict COVID risk, planning for a heat wave during the pandemic, why caregivers need time off, and more.

    Jun 12, 2020

  • A sign with flags of (R-L) Tuvalu, Nauru, Taiwan, Marshall Islands, and Palau is seen before a ceremony to donate masks to Taiwan's Pacific allies, in Taipei, Taiwan, April 15, 2020, photo by Ben Blanchard/Reuters

    Commentary

    Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?

    The contrasts in behavior between Taiwan and China during the COVID-19 pandemic show why it could be critical that U.S. policymakers consider advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation to enhance Taiwan's security, protect U.S. interests, and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

    Jun 8, 2020

  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers a speech at the opening session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, May 22, 2020, photo by Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters

    Commentary

    Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?

    For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan's recognition of the 1992 Consensus as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.

    Jun 3, 2020

  • Woman wearing a mask and holding a phone, looking off into the distance, photo by izusek/Getty Images

    Journal Article

    Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing

    Taiwan learned from the SARS outbreak in 2003. Its response to COVID-19 holds lessons for other countries battling the new virus.

    Apr 1, 2020

  • Taiwan Vice President-elect William Lai and incumbent Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen celebrate at a rally after their election victory in Taipei, Taiwan, January 11, 2020, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

    Commentary

    Where Does China's 'One Country, Two Systems' Stand in 2020?

    Hong Kong and Macau live under “one country, two systems,” and China aspires to include Taiwan in the future as well. But President Tsai Ing-wen's landslide re-election in Taiwan on January 11 resoundingly demonstrates that the arrangement is dead on arrival there.

    Feb 13, 2020

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at the opening ceremony of the second China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2019, photo by Aly Song/Reuters

    Commentary

    What to Expect from China in 2020

    Last year was an eventful one in China, with U.S.–China trade tensions escalating, protests in Hong Kong reaching a crisis point, and President Xi Jinping further consolidating power. What might the rest of the world expect from China in 2020?

    Jan 3, 2020

  • Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen attends a campaign rally ahead of the presidential election in Taipei, Taiwan, December 21, 2019, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

    Commentary

    What Taiwan and Vietnam Could Tell Us in 2020

    While many issues warrant attention in 2020, two that should be near the top of Asia-watchers' lists are Taiwan and Vietnam. Both are on the front lines of Chinese coercion, and their ability to respond, either with or without American support, will set the tone in the Indo-Pacific well beyond 2020.

    Dec 30, 2019

  • The national flag of Taiwan on a large number of metal containers for storing goods stacked in rows on top of each other. Conception of storage of goods by importers, exporters, photo by Sova Vitalij/AdobeStock

    Journal Article

    Trade Relations Between Taiwan and South Asia Under the New Southbound Policy

    This paper provides an assessment of Taiwan's global status as an economy, to discover where its global comparative advantages lie, then assesses its economic relations with South Asia.

    Dec 13, 2019

  • (L-R) Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele, and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi attend a signing ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, October 9, 2019, photo by Thomas Peter/Reuters

    Commentary

    What Does Beijing Want from the Pacific Islands?

    China's recent activities in Oceania highlight a formidable two-pronged strategy of diplomatic and economic engagement that Washington and its allies and partners will have to vigorously compete against to maintain their preeminence in the Pacific.

    Dec 9, 2019

  • Taiwan's guards of honour attend a welcoming ceremony for Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine in Taipei, Taiwan, July 27, 2018, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

    Commentary

    China Will Struggle to Shut Taiwan Out of the Pacific

    With the decisions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati to recognize Beijing over Taipei, the list of Taiwan's official diplomatic partners has decreased to 15. But China is likely to have a difficult time eliminating Taiwan's presence diplomatically in the Pacific.

    Oct 3, 2019

  • China and Taiwan flags on a chess board, photo by Kagenmi/Getty Images

    Commentary

    A Tale of Two Cities China Ignores at Its Peril

    Beijing may believe that, eventually, Taiwanese politics will turn in its favor. But it should consider experiences from the other two territories currently living under the formula—Hong Kong and Macau—to better understand why “one country, two systems” will never work in Taiwan, regardless of politics.

    Sep 12, 2019

  • Soldiers sit on an M60A3 tank for a group photograph after an anti-invasion drill to test readiness ahead of Lunar New Year, simulating enemy invasion and the safeguarding of the weapon systems in case of air raid, in Taichung, Taiwan, January 17, 2019, Photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

    Commentary

    Making Sense of U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan

    Why does the U.S. sell arms to Taiwan? And what is the impact on the cross-Strait military balance? Taiwan's arms purchase reflects a continuing concern over Beijing's military intentions; a balancing of operational and political considerations; a commitment by the United States to ensure that Taiwan can defend itself; and an American refusal to “stand down” in the face of China's aggressive behavior and coercion of Indo-Pacific democracies.

    Aug 9, 2019

  • Protesters break the windows of the Legislative Council building on the anniversary of Hong Kong's handover to China in Hong Kong, July 1, 2019, photo by Thomas Peter/Reuters

    Commentary

    Beijing Won't Allow Its Hong Kong Integration Experiment to Fail

    Recent events in Hong Kong have posed the stiffest challenge yet to Beijing's sovereignty. If sustained, they could push China to react to protect its national interests.

    Jul 3, 2019

  • Protesters outside police headquarters demand Hong Kong's leaders to step down and withdraw the extradition bill, in Hong Kong, June 21, 2019, photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

    Commentary

    One Country, Two Systems, Lots of Problems

    The enormous protests in Hong Kong since spring have led to fresh fears about the viability of China's "one country, two systems" policy. It's an idea that Macau and Hong Kong officially subscribe to and Taiwan fiercely resists—but one increasingly questioned from all sides.

    Jun 21, 2019

  • Participants wave flags during Taiwan's National Day celebrations outside the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan, October 10, 2010, photo by Nicky Loh/Reuters

    Commentary

    A Taiwan Diplomatic Victory Over China Could Be Inevitable

    It is likely that Taipei will lose diplomatic allies unless a cross-Strait agreement is reached on the 1992 Consensus. But it is perhaps equally inevitable that Taiwan will convince at least one or more states to recognize Taiwan over China. Such a development would help counter the narrative that Taiwan sovereignty is doomed.

    Mar 21, 2019

  • Report

    Countering China's Efforts to Isolate Taiwan Diplomatically in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Role of Development Assistance and Disaster Relief

    Taiwan provides development assistance and disaster relief programs in Latin America and the Caribbean. This report considers how Taiwan can optimize its help to this region to ensure that it gets the maximum diplomatic value for its generosity.

    Mar 13, 2019

  • Blog

    Border Wall, Student Suspension, Syria: RAND Weekly Recap

    This weekly recap focuses on what a border wall can accomplish, reducing student suspensions, confusion over the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, and more.

    Jan 11, 2019