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Taiwan became the primary stronghold of the Republic of China following the Communist party's rise in mainland China in 1949. RAND has analyzed shifts in U.S. diplomatic and military policy toward Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the decades and, in recent years, has examined Taiwan's rapid economic development, gradual political liberalization, and efforts to achieve independence from the PRC.

Report
Could Taiwan Fend Off a Chinese Attack?
China's growing military advantage suggests that, even with major improvements to Taiwan's defenses, U.S. intervention will be necessary to deter or defeat an attack by China. Changes in aspects of Taiwan's political leadership and social cohesion offer the surest path for developing the island's capacity to resist a large-scale attack.
Jun 27, 2023
Commentary
How Taiwan Can Build 'Digital Resilience'
If China were to attack Taiwan, it is very likely to attempt to control all communications on the island and block contact with the rest of the world. What actions can Taiwan take to maintain contact with allies, supporters, and its own people in the event of such an invasion?
Jul 6, 2023

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Report
U.S.-Japan Alliance Conference: The U.S.-Japan Alliance in an Era of Strategic Competition
These proceedings present insights that experts of Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and U.S. security policies presented at RAND Corporation–hosted virtual conferences that explored relevant issues on the U.S.-Japan alliance regarding strategic competition.
Nov 29, 2023
Multimedia
A New Approach to Power Projection: Reversing the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence
The RAND National Security Research Division hosted a discussion focused on emerging approaches to projecting power against the United States' most capable adversaries and the implications of these new approaches for defense planning.
Nov 14, 2023
Commentary
Chinese Strategists Evaluate the Use of 'Kamikaze' Drones in the Russia-Ukraine War
Both Russia and Ukraine have used loitering munitions successfully in the current war, and China is watching closely. Chinese strategists are likely already considering how to refine offensive tactics and improve defensive countermeasures in the context of a Taiwan scenario.
Nov 7, 2023
Commentary
Lessons from the Chinese Conquest of Taiwan
As Chinese political and military leaders envision conquering Taiwan, their predecessors' earlier seizure of the island is likely to inform their thoughts. Deriving lessons from the prior conquest of Taiwan can contribute to anticipation of possible threats and effective responses to them.
Oct 26, 2023
Commentary
Landmines in Ukraine: Lessons for China and Taiwan
In shaping patterns of future warfare, militaries across the world will be seeking to absorb the key lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War. Chinese strategists are particularly attuned to the major role that landmines have played in the conflict.
Sep 26, 2023
Commentary
The Strawman Defense Is Torching Taiwan's Military
There are many reasons why the political future of Taiwan Strait relations is uncertain, but the military considerations for Taiwan are much more straightforward. Taiwan should invest in capabilities that are highly survivable and potent against a potential attack from mainland China.
Sep 15, 2023
Commentary
U.S. Adversaries Can Use Generative AI for Social Media Manipulation
Using generative artificial intelligence technology, U.S. adversaries can manufacture fake social media accounts that seem real. These accounts can be used to advance narratives that serve the interests of those governments and pose a direct challenge to democracies. U.S. government, technology, and policy communities should act fast to counter this threat.
Sep 7, 2023
Blog
The State of Public Education, the Opioid Crisis, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the state of public education in America right now, a missing piece of the strategy for addressing the opioid crisis, emerging technology that could help defend Taiwan, and more.
Sep 1, 2023
Commentary
China Ponders Russia's Logistical Challenges in the Ukraine War
Any attempt by China to use military force to seize Taiwan would be an immense logistical undertaking requiring moving large quantities of troops and materiel across the Taiwan Strait. What then, are Chinese observers learning from the logistical realm of the war in Ukraine?
Aug 28, 2023
Commentary
These Technologies Could Defeat China's Missile Barrage and Defend Taiwan
Earlier this year, a group of experts from RAND and the Special Competitive Studies Project launched a new wargame effort around China's invasion of Taiwan. But unlike most D.C.-based wargames, this effort heavily involved members of the commercial technology sector, to understand what near-term capabilities might be brought to bear on a Taiwan scenario.
Aug 24, 2023
Journal Article
Xi's Cautious Inching Towards the China Dream
Beijing’s current strategy for ensuring CCP rule through mid-century and beyond heavily emphasizes domestic threats.
Aug 11, 2023
Blog
Ukrainian Refugees, U.S. and Allied Defense Strategy, Threats from AI: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on supporting Ukrainian refugees, the future of U.S. and allied defense strategy, existential threats posed by artificial intelligence, and more.
Aug 4, 2023
Blog
Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, Neurodiversity, Russia's 'Forever War': RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on public reports of unidentified aerial phenomena, neurodiversity and national security, Ukraine's path to victory, and more.
Jul 28, 2023
Report
How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence
Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including those posed by Russia and China. What gaps do U.S. and allied forces have to fill to successfully meet this challenge?
Jul 25, 2023
Commentary
Making Every Defense Dollar Count in Taiwan
The surging security relationship between the United States and Taiwan is exposing some long-simmering differences, with questions about Taiwan's defense investments atop Washington's list of concerns.
Jul 24, 2023
Report
How Would U.S. Allies View Changes in Washington's Relationship with Taiwan?
The debate in Washington over Taiwan often overlooks a crucial question: How would America's regional allies respond to possible changes in U.S. policy toward the island? Researchers explored the perspectives of Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Jul 20, 2023
Blog
Taiwan, Gun Violence, Fishing in the Arctic: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the potential for a Chinese attack on Taiwan, America's persistent gun violence problem, managing Arctic fisheries, and more.
Jul 7, 2023
Commentary
Can Cheap Drones Be the Answer to Tensions in the Taiwan Strait?
The more we learn about the war in Ukraine, the more we come to know that drones will play an increasingly important role on the modern battlefield. But how is the U.S. military thinking about what role these aircraft might play in future wars? When paired with modern sensors, could they offer an asymmetric advantage in future competitions?
Jun 29, 2023

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Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Cristina L. Garafola

Policy Researcher

Cristina Garafola (she/her) is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on the ramifications of China’s rise for its global status, particularly with respect to defense issues, China’s influence on regional actors, and implications for the United States. Garafola served…
Raymond Kuo

Senior Political Scientist

Raymond Kuo is the inaugural director of the RAND Corporation's Taiwan Policy Initiative and a senior political scientist at RAND. He is an expert in international security, international order, and East Asia.

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