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Taiwan became the primary stronghold of the Republic of China following the Communist party's rise in mainland China in 1949. RAND has analyzed shifts in U.S. diplomatic and military policy toward Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the decades and, in recent years, has examined Taiwan's rapid economic development, gradual political liberalization, and efforts to achieve independence from the PRC.

Report
Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by China
It's possible that China could enact a quarantine of Taiwan, preventing it from sending exports or receiving imports. Quarantine exploits Taiwan's economic vulnerability but also has consequences for the United States and other allies. How might they respond?
May 23, 2022
Commentary
Ukraine War Is Motivating Taiwan to Better Secure Its Own Future
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is probably motivating Taiwan to better secure its own future versus China. But many of the challenges currently facing Taiwan, such as shortcomings in reservist training or lingering confusion over its military strategy, are difficult to fix, assuming they are even fixable.
May 13, 2022

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Blog
Diversity in the Military, Telemedicine Abortion, China and Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the benefits of increasing and maintaining diversity in the armed forces, the challenges of telemedicine abortion, whether Indo-Pacific countries are backing China or Taiwan, and more.
Aug 26, 2022
Commentary
The Indo-Pacific Mostly Backs 'One China,' but Taiwan Gets Some Love, Too
Almost the entire Indo-Pacific region backs China over Taiwan. But U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August trip to Taiwan made it clear that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan's cause, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island. This suggests that Beijing's assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.
Aug 22, 2022
Commentary
China's Pacific Push Is Backfiring
Beijing has had only limited success in spreading its influence in the Pacific, with the notable exceptions of the Solomon Islands and Kiribati. To be sure, other victories should be expected to follow. The overall picture, however, is far more challenging for China.
Jul 26, 2022
Blog
Gun Policy, China and Taiwan, Russian Propaganda: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on reducing America's unacceptably high rates of gun violence, what would happen if China “quarantines” Taiwan, and Russia's “firehose of falsehood.”
May 27, 2022
Commentary
Book Review: 'Isolating the Enemy' by Tao Wang
In his book, Isolating the Enemy: Diplomatic Strategy in China and the United States, 1953–1956, Dr. Tao Wang reviews key moments in the diplomatic strategies of China and the United States between 1953 and 1956. Although the book illuminates fascinating aspects of the period's diplomatic history, it unfortunately does not offer much insight into the reasons for the relative success of these contrasting strategies.
Apr 27, 2022
Commentary
Japan's Wake Up Call
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has drawn concern and comparison to what China may have in mind for Taiwan. Given China's history of provocations, it could behoove Japanese leaders to devote renewed attention to how they would deal with a Taiwan crisis, especially as it could include an attack on Japan.
Mar 24, 2022
Commentary
Taiwan Isn't the Ukraine of the Indo-Pacific. Try Vietnam Instead
Russia's war in Eastern Europe has prompted Indo-Pacific security watchers to draw comparisons between Ukraine's plight and that of Taiwan with regard to China. But the more-applicable analogy is a different Indo-Pacific country: Vietnam.
Mar 21, 2022
Commentary
What the Invasion of Ukraine Might Teach Us About a Potential Taiwan Crisis
Chinese leaders are learning from the conflict in Ukraine, not just by observing Russia's actions, but also the West's response. By also learning from the conflict, the United States, Taiwan, and other like-minded partners can help ensure that Beijing comes away from the current crisis with a greater appreciation of the risks that attacking Taiwan would entail.
Mar 17, 2022
Commentary
Why China Is Intensifying Its Military Flights Against Taiwan
On January 23, China repeated its familiar pattern of sending warplanes into Taiwan's airspace. This activity, which has continued in February, rarely has a clear single driver. Instead, there are several factors that should always be considered.
Feb 21, 2022
Commentary
Taiwan and Six Potential New Year's Resolutions for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance
How might the United States and Japan prepare for possible conflict with China over Taiwan, and ensure forces are postured to operate together? The alliance could benefit from greater clarity, and practical conversations could make a better and stronger alliance in the new year.
Jan 5, 2022
Commentary
Taiwan Would Be Better Off Alone
Relinquishing diplomatic partners could free Taiwan from an unwinnable competition with China and refocus attention on what really matters: reducing China's coercive power by strengthening relationships with powers that can truly help.
Dec 23, 2021
Blog
RAND Commentary Highlights of 2021
Vaccine rollouts, an attack on the U.S. Capitol, massive ransomware attacks, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, record numbers of job openings and people quitting, and more. RAND researchers weighed in on all these topics and more.
Dec 21, 2021
Blog
Russia and Ukraine, Climate Migration, Democracy in Asia: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on Russia and Ukraine, planning for climate migration, the state of democracy in Asia, and more.
Dec 10, 2021
Commentary
Preventing China from Taking Taiwan
The single most challenging high-end threat to a key American national security interest today is probably a Chinese invasion attempt against Taiwan. The United States could try to make that scenario unthinkable for Beijing by ensuring that China cannot dominate the western Pacific region.
Dec 9, 2021
Commentary
The Counterintuitive Sensibility of Taiwan's New Defense Strategy
As the United States prepares to deter China from attacking Taiwan and defend it from an attack, are the Taiwanese themselves doing everything they can to defend their territory?
Dec 6, 2021
Report
Democracy Remains Fragile in the Asia-Pacific
In Asia, there has been a reduction in the number of autocracies over time but also a rise in the number of partial democracies. What makes some Asian states slide toward authoritarianism? What policies can support democratization, and how can external actors help?
Dec 6, 2021
Blog
U.S. 'Entanglement,' Global Health Cooperation, Community Stress: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on competing claims about U.S. partnerships and allies, responding to Russia's tactics in Ukraine, helping communities recover from stress, and more.
Nov 26, 2021
Commentary
Taiwan Is Safe Until at Least 2027, but with One Big Caveat
Although Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly seeks to bring Taiwan to heel, and by force if necessary, he also continues to promote “peaceful reunification” as Beijing's preferred means. Xi likely would have toughened up his language by now if he thought war was a real possibility.
Nov 10, 2021

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