Stephen Watts

Senior Political Scientist

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in government, Cornell University; M.A. in European Studies, Georgetown University; B.A. in government, College of William and Mary

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Stephen Watts is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He is currently on leave from RAND, serving as a strategy advisor in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). While at RAND, his research has focused on deterrence, campaigning, force posture, security sector assistance, irregular warfare and stabilization, and long-term conflict trends. He is the lead author of two dozen RAND studies and has published articles in such journals as The Washington Quarterly, Parameters, and Joint Force Quarterly. At RAND, he has served as associate then acting director of the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program of the RAND Army Research Division and associate director of the Defense and Political Sciences Department.

Prior to beginning his doctoral studies, Watts served as a foreign affairs officer in the State Department's Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, where he was twice awarded a Superior Honor Award for his work. He has held short-term assignments at the State Department's Office of Policy Planning, U.S. Embassy Sarajevo, and Combined Forces Special Operations Component Command–Afghanistan. Watts received his Ph.D. in government from Cornell University, where he was awarded the Esman Prize for best dissertation in government, and has held research fellowships at Harvard University's Belfer Center and the Brookings Institution.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Adjunct Assistant Professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service

Honors & Awards

Elihu Root Prize (second place), Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College
Esman Prize, Cornell University

Commentary

International Diplomacy

Is America Ready for a Peace Deal in Afghanistan?
The Trump administration appears to be following its predecessor in imagining a political endgame in Afghanistan. It is focused on military efforts to try to turn the tide of the conflict, in hopes of negotiating from a stronger position. But if all sides continue to seek military advantage, negotiations will never commence.
Apr 27, 2018
The National Interest
Security Cooperation

A Competing Risks Approach to Security Sector Assistance for Fragile States
How should the U.S. balance the risks of cooperating with troubling governments against the risk that ISIS or similar groups could gain strength in these fragile states?
May 2, 2016
Lawfare
Afghanistan

In Afghanistan, the Glass Is Still Better Seen as Half Full: A Response to Gary Owen
While things are certainly not “great” in Afghanistan, there are more reasons for hope than many had expected to see by this point in the transition from a large U.S. presence to a greatly reduced one.
Aug 24, 2015
Lawfare
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations

Afghanistan After the Drawdown
If neither victory nor a political settlement are likely in the short term, and if complete withdrawal is unpalatable, then the United States must ensure that its support of Afghanistan remains politically sustainable.
Jul 6, 2015
Lawfare
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations

The Foreign Policy Essay: The Limits of Small Footprints
The history of “small-footprint approaches” should be sobering. It suggests that such approaches are good at preventing allied governments from losing against rebels, but are not very good at actually winning wars.
Mar 31, 2014
Lawfare

Publications

Report
Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command: Incorporating Climate Change
This report presents an analysis of the impact of climate change on the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Research Brief
Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command
As climate change increasingly disrupts human and natural systems, this report presents analysis and characterizes how climate hazards could affect the physical and security environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations
This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends
The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications
The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
China's Global Basing Ambitions: Defense Implications for the United States
The authors examine China's growing overseas interests, attributes of potential host nations, and potential power projection operations that the People's Liberation Army may carry out abroad. They also draw lessons from historical case studies.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
Implications of a Global People's Liberation Army: Historical Lessons for Responding to China's Long-Term Global Basing Ambitions
The authors examine three case studies among the United States' competitors to help anticipate what Chinese overseas access and basing might look like in the 2030s while assessing U.S. risks and opportunities posed by Chinese military expansion.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations
Using a framework of 17 indicators, the authors assess and rank potential host nations for Chinese overseas basing and access. They recommend steps to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: Assessing Future Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Military Interventions
This report identifies potential future demands for U.S. ground forces under different scenarios, including size, location, and capabilities, to inform Army decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.
Jul 6, 2022
Report
Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: The Role of Ground Forces in Preventing Hostile Measures Below Armed Conflict in Europe
In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe -- particularly focusing on ground forces -- as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.
Jan 20, 2022
Report
Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: Executive Summary
In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe -- particularly focusing on ground forces -- as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.
Jan 20, 2022
Report
Competition and Governance in African Security Sectors: Integrating U.S. Strategic Objectives
This report examines U.S. institutional capacity-building programs for the security sectors of African partner governments and their potential role in strategic competition.
Jan 18, 2022
Report
Analysis of Russian Irregular Threats
The authors of this report describe strategic global trends related to Russian global influence and behavior and provide an overview and assessment of hostile activities that Russia has undertaken in the face of these trends.
Nov 8, 2021
Report
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Public Communication Campaigns and Their Implications for Strategic Competition with Russia
The authors examine evidence on the effectiveness of campaigns to influence public opinion in target populations -- sometimes referred to as "information warfare" -- in the context of strategic competition between the United States and Russia.
Nov 8, 2021
Report
Countering Russia: The Role of Special Operations Forces in Strategic Competition
This report establishes a strategic framework for U.S. Army special operations forces support to countering Russian activities in the competition space.
Nov 8, 2021
Report
Securing Gains in Fragile States: Using U.S. Leverage in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Beyond
This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.
Jun 15, 2021
Report
Using U.S. Leverage to Limit Instability in Fragile States: Executive Summary
This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.
Jun 15, 2021
Report
Alternative Worldviews: Understanding Potential Trajectories of Great-Power Ideological Competition
The United States is engaged in a new era of great-power competition taking place in the realms of information, ideas, and ideology. The authors of this report analyze what a future ideological competition might look like.
Mar 12, 2020
Report
Seizing the Golden Hour: Tasks, Organization, and Capabilities Required for the Earliest Phase of Stability Operations
This report analyzes the golden hour—the early phase of a postconflict stability operation—and the actions, organization, and capabilities necessary to seize it and set the conflict-affected country on a path to self-sustaining peace.
Feb 11, 2020
Report
Understanding the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Overseas Forces
This report provides empirical evidence on the deterrent effects of U.S. overseas military forces. It also offers guidance about how the deterrent effects of forces may vary by their type, size, and location.
Feb 4, 2020
Report
Pacific Engagement: Forging Tighter Connections Between Tactical Security Cooperation Activities and U.S. Strategic Goals in the Asia-Pacific Region
This report examines U.S. Army security cooperation (SC) processes in the Pacific Command area of responsibility to forge stronger links between strategic and tactical levels in the planning and execution of SC activities.
Oct 23, 2018
Report
Building Security in Africa: An Evaluation of U.S. Security Sector Assistance in Africa from the Cold War to the Present
A RAND Corporation study used statistical models to evaluate the impact that U.S.-provided SSA has had on political violence in Africa -- in particular, the incidence of civil wars and insurgencies, terrorist attacks, and state repression.
Sep 13, 2018
Report
A Developmental Approach to Building Sustainable Security-Sector Capacity in Africa
In this report, RAND researchers analyze options and recommend changes to improve the sustainability of security sector assistance in African partner nations, deriving insights from the development community.
Sep 13, 2018
Research Brief
Reforming Security Sector Assistance for Africa
U.S. security-sector assistance has a mixed record in Africa. RAND experts offer recommendations to promote the success of such assistance in Africa. The recommendations focus on strategies, programs, and their assessment, monitoring, and evaluation.
Sep 13, 2018
Report
Limited Intervention: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Limited Stabilization, Limited Strike, and Containment Operations
The report analyzes the strategic effects of low-cost and small-footprint military options across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.
Feb 22, 2018
Report
U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict
Empirically assesses how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors.
Feb 15, 2018
Commentary
U.S. Strategic Interests in the Middle East and Implications for the Army
This perspective examines threats to U.S. interests in the Middle East and factors associated with success and failure in U.S. military interventions, and offers recommendations for the Army as it prepares for future involvement in the region.
Dec 7, 2017
Report
The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts
This report uses an original data set of U.S. ground interventions to identify factors that determine where and when the United States is most likely to intervene militarily.
Oct 12, 2017
Report
Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements
RAND researchers develop a framework to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe in order to help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.
Oct 10, 2017
Report
Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections
Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning
This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict
This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?
This report assesses trends in armed conflict, the incidence of which has declined in recent decades. Key political, economic, and strategic factors, including the deterrent effect of the U.S. military, suggest this decline is likely to continue.
Sep 12, 2017
Journal Article
Rapid Regeneration of Irregular Warfare Capacity
DOD should monitor resources and readiness levels associated with the pipeline to regenerate IW proficiency between maneuver and other rouces as needed.
Jul 16, 2015
Journal Article
Determining U.S. Commitments in Afghanistan
As the Obama administration's tenure winds down and the United States withdraws nearly all of its troops from Afghanistan, debates about the nature and scale of future U.S. involvement in Afghanistan continue.
May 21, 2015
Report
Identifying and Mitigating Risks in Security Sector Assistance for Africa's Fragile States
Often those countries most in need of security sector assistance are least able to make good use of it. The author explores the risks of assistance to the fragile states of Africa and how the United States might better anticipate and mitigate them.
Apr 15, 2015
Report
Assessing the Army's Active-Reserve Component Force Mix
Active-reserve force mix decisions should consider both capability and cost. This report examines two critical considerations: the time needed to make forces ready to deploy and the relative cost to sustain the same level of deployed output.
Sep 10, 2014
Report
Countering Others' Insurgencies: Understanding U.S. Small-Footprint Interventions in Local Context
This report describes counterinsurgency strategies and practices and conditions in which U.S. small-footprint partnerships may succeed. Case studies of the Philippines and Pakistan reinforce quantitative findings and highlight challenges for the U.S. in influencing partners.
Feb 25, 2014
Research Brief
Partner Capacity in Counterinsurgency Campaigns
Success stories in small-footprint U.S. interventions have occurred in countries with inclusive politics and reasonable state capacity. Unfortunately, most insurgencies seek to overthrow regimes that are weak in inclusion and capacity.
Feb 11, 2014
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 37, No. 1, Summer 2013
Stories discuss the harms caused by sexual assault in the military; the prospects for minimalist international interventions; cyber threats and nations' responses to them; and the rising costs of dementia in the United States.
Jul 15, 2013
Research Brief
The Value and Limitations of Minimalist Stabilization Efforts
Assesses the utility and limitations of minimalist stabilization -- small-scale interventions designed to stabilize a partner government engaged in violent conflict -- and proposes policy recommendations to improve the outcomes of such operations.
Oct 1, 2012
Report
The Uses and Limits of Small-Scale Military Interventions
Assesses the utility and limitations of minimalist stabilization -- small-scale interventions designed to stabilize a partner government engaged in violent conflict -- and proposes policy recommendations to improve the outcomes of such operations.
Sep 27, 2012
Report
Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction
Reviews and integrates the scholarly social-science literature relevant to stabilization and reconstruction, with the goal of informing strategic planning at the whole-of-government level.
Oct 10, 2011