Timothy R. Heath — Publications
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The Chinese Military Is Built for Politics, Not Fighting Wars
2026
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China's National Security: The People's Liberation Army's Shrinking Role in Protecting the Nation's Core Interests
2025
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China's Water Future: Key Decisions, Challenges, and Trade-Offs
2025
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The Chinese Military's Doubtful Combat Readiness: The People’s Liberation Army Remains Focused on Upholding Chinese Communist Party Rule, Not Preparing for War
2025
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Could Artificial General Intelligence Adoption Start a Civil War in America?
2025
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Economic Deterrence in a China Contingency
2025
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Political Legitimacy and the People's Liberation Army
2025
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U.S.-China Economic Competition: Gains and Risks in a Complex Economic and Geopolitical Relationship
2025
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China's People's Armed Forces Departments: Developments Under Xi Jinping
2024
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The Effectiveness of U.S. Economic Policies Regarding China Pursued from 2017 to 2024
2024
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The Fates of Nations: Varieties of Success and Failure for Great Powers in Long-Term Rivalries
2024
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Is China Prepared for War? Indications and Warning of a Potential Chinese Conflict with the United States
2024
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Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution in Comparative Organizations: Volume 4, Executive Summary
2024
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Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution in Comparative Organizations: Volume 1, Case Studies of China and Russia
2024
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The Societal Basis for National Competitiveness: Chinese and Russian Perspectives
2024
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The Autocrat's Predicament: The Political Peril of Economic Upgrade in Single-Party Authoritarian Regimes
2023
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The Backbone of U.S. Joint Operations: Army Roles in the Indo-Pacific
2023
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Can Taiwan Resist a Large-Scale Military Attack by China? Assessing Strengths and Vulnerabilities in a Potential Conflict
2023
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China's Global Energy Interconnection: Exploring the Security Implications of a Power Grid Developed and Governed by China
2023
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Could Beijing Risk a Diversionary War Against Taiwan?
2023
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Disrupting the Chinese Military in Competition and Low-Intensity Conflict: An Analysis of People's Liberation Army Missions, Tasks, and Potential Vulnerabilities
2023
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The End of China's Period of Strategic Opportunity: Limited Opportunities, More Dangers
2023
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Gaining Victory in Systems Warfare: China's Perspective on the U.S.-China Military Balance
2023
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Managing the Escalation Risks of U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific
2023
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Not-So-Great Powers: U.S.-China Rivalry in the Neomedieval Age
2023
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Strategic Disruption by Special Operations Forces: A Concept for Proactive Campaigning Short of Traditional War
2023
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U.S.-China Rivalry in a Neomedieval World: Security in an Age of Weakening States
2023
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Wargames Can't Tell Us How to Deter a Chinese Attack on Taiwan — But Different Games Might
2023
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Weakened States Pose Problems for War Scenarios
2023
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Xi's Cautious Inching Towards the China Dream
2023
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Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements
2022
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Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century
2022
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Is China Planning to Attack Taiwan? A Careful Consideration of Available Evidence Says No
2022
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Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific
2022
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New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts
2022
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The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations
2022
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The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China
2022
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Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition Through the Eyes of Others: Country Perspectives
2022
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US-China Strategic Rivalry: Great Power Competition in the Post-industrial Age
2022
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Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions
2021
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China's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
2021
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China's Quest for Global Primacy: An Analysis of Chinese International and Defense Strategies to Outcompete the United States
2021
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Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
2021
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U.S. Strategic Competition with China: A RAND Research Primer
2021
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What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait
2021
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Winning Friends and Influencing People: Naval Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics
2020
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The Consolidation of Political Power in China Under Xi Jinping: Implications for the PLA and Domestic Security Forces
2019
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The Consolidation of Political Power in China Under Xi Jinping: Implications for the PLA and Domestic Security Forces: Addendum
2019
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Science-Based Scenario Design: A Proposed Method to Support Political-Strategic Analysis
2019
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Avoiding U.S.-China Competition Is Futile: Why the Best Option Is to Manage Strategic Rivalry
2018
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China and the International Order
2018
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China's Military Activities in the East China Sea: Implications for Japan's Air Self-Defense Force
2018
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China's Pursuit of Overseas Security
2018
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Dispute Control: China Recalibrates Use of Military Force to Support Security Policy's Expanding Focus
2018
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The Brutal Politics of China's Economic Overhaul: What Xi Can Learn from FDR
2017
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The Chinese Air Force's First Steps Toward Becoming an Expeditionary Air Force
2017
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Chinese Political and Military Thinking Regarding Taiwan and East and South China Seas
2017
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Is China Pursuing Counter-Intervention?
2017
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What Role Can Land-Based, Multi-Domain Anti-Access/Area Denial Forces Play in Deterring or Defeating Aggression?
2017
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Assessing the Training and Operational Proficiency of China's Aerospace Forces: Selections from the Inaugural Conference of the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI)
2016
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China's Evolving Approach to Economic Diplomacy
2016
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Developments in China's Military Force Projection and Expeditionary Capabilities
2016
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The PLA and China's Rejuvenation: National Security and Military Strategies, Deterrence Concepts, and Combat Capabilities
2016
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China, Inside and Out: A Collection of Essays on Foreign and Domestic Policy in the Xi Jinping Era
2015
