Expanding on prior research, the authors identify the tasks that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would likely be assigned by Chinese leaders to achieve strategic goals both in peacetime competition with the United States and in a hypothetical low-intensity conflict. They then analyze potential vulnerabilities in the PLA’s execution of those tasks and how the United States could leverage those vulnerabilities to disrupt China’s strategic goals.

Disrupting the Chinese Military in Competition and Low-Intensity Conflict

An Analysis of People's Liberation Army Missions, Tasks, and Potential Vulnerabilities

Timothy R. Heath, Eric Robinson, Christian Curriden, Derek Grossman, Sale Lilly, Daniel Egel, Gabrielle Tarini

ResearchPublished Dec 5, 2023

The authors identify tasks that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would likely be assigned by Chinese leaders to achieve strategic goals both in peacetime competition with the United States and in a hypothetical low-intensity conflict. The authors then analyze potential vulnerabilities in the PLA's execution of those tasks and how the United States could leverage those vulnerabilities to disrupt China's strategic goals, focusing on the potential for peacetime competition to erupt into a broader low-intensity conflict featuring smaller, indirect, or hybrid confrontations that span the world.

The authors expand on a comprehensive list of potential PLA missions developed in prior research and explore vulnerabilities in the PLA's execution of the specific tasks required to achieve Beijing's strategic objectives. Across these missions and tasks, they identify five sets of vulnerabilities that, if disrupted, could affect Beijing's ability to achieve its goals: fears of domestic instability after PLA actions, risk of escalating conflict, harm to China's reputation, the PLA's limited ability to support partner states, and the PLA's limited ability to project power.

These vulnerabilities provide a sense of the potential pressure points that the PLA could face in accomplishing its objectives. Options for the United States to leverage these pressure points include deterring harmful PLA actions by shaping perceptions of how those actions might affect China's interests, exploiting the consequences of PLA actions to deter Beijing from repeating similar actions, and exploiting PLA weaknesses in power projection and partner support to weaken confidence in the PLA and discourage similar operations.

Key Findings

  • China is vulnerable to domestic instability. This vulnerability arises from the potential for actions taken by the PLA to exacerbate internal tensions in China. These tensions could arise from excessive repression, politicization of the military, or domestic blowback from casualties or embarrassing military failures.
  • China is vulnerable to the risk of escalation that could arise from destabilizing actions taken by the PLA in conflict. The result could be an unwanted expansion of conflict, protraction, or damage to China's economic prospects.
  • China is vulnerable to the potential for PLA action or inaction to result in severe costs to China's reputation, influence, and appeal as a partner.
  • China faces limitations on the PLA's ability to operate with partners and motivate them to fight on China's behalf.
  • There are constraints on the PLA's ability to conduct military operations far from the Chinese mainland.
  • The United States could deter harmful PLA actions by shaping perceptions of the potential negative effects of those actions on China's own interests.
  • The United States could exploit the adverse consequences of PLA actions after they occur to deter Beijing from repeating similar actions.
  • The United States could exploit specific PLA weaknesses in power projection and partner support to weaken Beijing's confidence in the PLA and discourage similar operations and activities.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2023
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 116
  • Paperback Price: $27.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1157-6
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA1794-2
  • Document Number: RR-A1794-2

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Heath, Timothy R., Eric Robinson, Christian Curriden, Derek Grossman, Sale Lilly, Daniel Egel, and Gabrielle Tarini, Disrupting the Chinese Military in Competition and Low-Intensity Conflict: An Analysis of People's Liberation Army Missions, Tasks, and Potential Vulnerabilities, RAND Corporation, RR-A1794-2, 2023. As of September 13, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1794-2.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Heath, Timothy R., Eric Robinson, Christian Curriden, Derek Grossman, Sale Lilly, Daniel Egel, and Gabrielle Tarini, Disrupting the Chinese Military in Competition and Low-Intensity Conflict: An Analysis of People's Liberation Army Missions, Tasks, and Potential Vulnerabilities. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1794-2.html. Also available in print form.
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