Daniel Egel

From the Ashes of Hamas-Israel War, Can Economics Drive Peace?

The economic costs of the violence in Gaza threaten Israel's economic future. For the Palestinians, the costs may be so large that they undermine the possibility of an independent Palestinian state. But the magnitude of these economic losses may, paradoxically, forge a new pathway toward peace once the fighting stops.

Winning the Irregular World War

If the United States hopes to prevail in an asymmetrical world war, it must upgrade its abilities to provide self-defense and resistance support to its allies and partners, and better coordinate its disparate efforts to counter Russia and China across departments and agencies.

A Unique Opportunity Not to Be Squandered: Advancing Our Relationships in Central Asia

Concerned about Putin's imperialist actions in Ukraine, five nations in Central Asia are looking to the West to offset the political, economic, and security-related pressures they feel from Russia and, increasingly, China. It would be a mistake for the United States not to seize this moment.

A Civilian U.S. 'Joint Chiefs' for Economic Competition with China?

China's aggressive activities are presenting a serious, sustained challenge to the international order. To position itself for this new era, the United States could create a civilian equivalent to the Joint Chiefs of Staff with a mandate to manage the expanding role of U.S. civilian departments in geopolitical and economic competition.

Maximizing the Potential of American Irregular Warfare in Strategic Competition

It is time that the United States develop the concepts and associated doctrine, commands, field operating agencies, and personnel to maximize the potential of American irregular warfare in strategic competition.

Venture Capital Gives America a Strategic Edge in the Age of Technology Wars

U.S. early-stage hardware startups are seriously disadvantaged by a persistent lack of financing. Congress authorized the U.S. Department of Defense to spend $75 million to invest in dual-use hardware startups. But the Pentagon has proven reticent to embrace a venture capital–style approach, even though research has demonstrated it is optimal for driving innovation.

Preparing for Strategic Competition: The Need for Irregular Warfare Professional Military Education

The Department of Defense does not provide the irregular warfare professional military education necessary for success in competition and conflict in the 21st century. This is not a new problem, but it is one that may deserve new attention from Congress and the Pentagon.

Mastering Irregular Warfare

The U.S. military has failed to master irregular warfare above the tactical level. This is not a new problem, and it is one that has been recognized by leaders at the most senior echelons of government. There are several steps that the DoD and U.S. Congress might consider to develop the mastery of irregular warfare that the United States needs.

The Congressionally Authorized Irregular Warfare Functional Center Is a Historic Opportunity: Will the Department of Defense Capitalize on It?

The U.S. Department of Defense may be facing a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fix a critical gap in its national security arsenal. Congress has authorized the creation of an institution dedicated to the study and research of irregular warfare. Unfortunately, initial indications are that this opportunity might not be realized.

Unconventional Supply Network Operations: A New Frontier in Global Competition

The technological advances of recent decades that have made supply networks drastically more efficient, valuable, and essential to every element of our daily lives have also created a highly interdependent, largely unsecured portfolio of potential attack surfaces.

Congressional Options to Advance Peace in Yemen

An enduring peace in Yemen will require addressing Yemen's most immediate needs while working to develop its economic, political, and security institutions. U.S. lawmakers have the tools to help shape this effort and could help end the conflict and bring stability to Yemen.

Abraham Accords Offer Historic Opportunity to Spur Mideast Growth

The Abraham Accords have heralded a dramatic shift in the relationship between Israel and the Muslim nations of the world. While these accords represent a major political breakthrough, they also represent a possible new chapter in the region's development: away from conflict and toward a shared economic vision of prosperity.

Pathways Toward Peace in Yemen: National Reconciliation or a 'Phased' Approach?

Any pathway to an enduring peace in Yemen could take decades to recover from the economic, political, and social costs of this civil war. A phased approach could require patience from the Yemeni people and a robust and enduring commitment from the international community. But war has brought Yemen to this point, and there are few remaining options.

Yemen's Chaos Creates a New Opportunity for the Biden-Harris Team

More than one-quarter million Yemenis have been killed in the nation's civil war. And 150,000 children have died from starvation and left Yemen on the brink of collapse. The foundations of peace must be Yemeni-led, but there is much that the new U.S. administration could do to support the process.

Defense Budget Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is taking a dramatic toll on the U.S. economy. This could have significant medium-term implications for the U.S. defense budget. The U.S. Department of Defense will need to find efficiencies that are of at least the same magnitude as the recent sequestration.

Economic Consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. National Security

The global COVID-19 pandemic will have a dramatic effect on economies across the globe. But the Middle East may be particularly affected, given the simultaneous fall in oil prices. The economic consequences of this pandemic are also likely to affect U.S. interests in the region.

AI and Irregular Warfare: An Evolution, Not a Revolution

How will artificial intelligence change the way wars are fought? The answer, of course, depends. And it mainly depends on what type of wars are being fought. And how will AI affect the type of wars that the United States is most likely to fight?

Economic Benefits of U.S. Overseas Security Commitments Appear to Outweigh Costs

U.S. policymakers should carefully weigh the potential losses against the potential gains when considering the desirability of large-scale retrenchments of U.S. overseas security commitments.

Report

Disrupting the Chinese Military in Competition and Low-Intensity Conflict: An Analysis of People's Liberation Army Missions, Tasks, and Potential Vulnerabilities

The authors (1) identify tasks that the Chinese military would likely be assigned in peacetime competition with the United States and in a hypothetical low-intensity conflict and (2) analyze potential vulnerabilities in execution of those tasks.

Report

Strategic Disruption by Special Operations Forces: A Concept for Proactive Campaigning Short of Traditional War

RAND researchers develop a new concept for strategic disruption by special operations forces, exploring how disruptive campaigns can frustrate an adversary’s preferred strategy and enable friendly gains across multiple instruments of national power.

Report

Machine Learning for Operational Decisionmaking in Competition and Conflict: A Demonstration Using the Conflict in Eastern Ukraine

This report explores how machine learning can be leveraged to enable military decisionmaking at the operational level of competition and conflict as a collaboration between machine learning tools and human analysts.

Commentary

Toward a New Paradigm in U.S. Foreign Policy: Harnessing the Power of American Society in Pursuit of U.S. National Security Objectives

In this Perspective, the authors call for a new “whole of America” paradigm for U.S. foreign policy that leverages the nation’s governments, businesses, civil society, and academic institutions to defend core U.S. principles of democracy and freedom.

Report

Can the United States Deter Threats from Uncertain Origins? Examining the Cases of Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia

This report examines how to deter a national security threat when the threat, the underlying method, and the actor behind the threat are not understood with certainty.

Report

The Future of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces: Lessons from Historical Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration Efforts

This report analyzes historic cases of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration to inform present U.S. policy on Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), who represent a threat to both Iraqi sovereignty and U.S. policy interests.

Report

Leveraging Machine Learning for Operation Assessment

This report shows how machine learning (ML) can support assessment of military operations by describing and illustrating the use of ML in systematically extracting assessment-relevant insights from intelligence, operational, and media reporting.

Commentary

Peace Dividend: Widening the Economic Growth and Development Benefits of the Abraham Accords

The Abraham Accords, a major political breakthrough between Israel and the Muslim nations of the world, could also have wide-reaching economic impacts. This Perspective assesses the potential economic benefits of these accords for the region.

Report

Building an Enduring Peace in Yemen: Lessons from Five Years of RAND Research

Yemen's civil war entered its sixth year in 2021. This report describes the challenges facing efforts to achieve an enduring peace in Yemen and outlines constructive steps the international community can take to achieve an enduring peace.

Report

Alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

RAND researchers used a novel focus group approach to assess which, if any, of five possible alternative futures in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would be supported by Israelis and Palestinians.

Commentary

The American Way of Irregular War: An Analytical Memoir

The United States has failed to achieve strategic objectives in nearly every military campaign since Vietnam. This memoir describes how the United States can begin to build the American way of irregular war needed for success in modern conflict.

Infographic

Estimating the Economic Benefits of Levant Integration: A Look at the Numbers

This infographic helps users assess values of economic integration in the Levant in a variety of ways.

Report

Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations

How can the success (or failure) of Army special operations missions be assessed? The authors develop a methodology for doing so and illustrate the process through a fictional scenario.

Report

Estimating the Economic Benefits of Levant Integration

This report describes how a comprehensive free trade agreement among the economies of the Levant could increase the average gross domestic product by 3-7 percent, and reduce regional unemployment rates by 8-18 percent.

Tool

The Levant Economic Integration Calculator

This online tool allows policymakers and the public to examine how a comprehensive free trade agreement among the countries of the Levant could create significant new economic opportunities, substantially reducing regional unemployment.

Commentary

An American Way of Political Warfare: A Proposal

The United States should develop an American political warfare capability to synchronize all elements of national power in contests with and without armed conflict and establish a national political warfare center to mature this capability.

Report

After Brexit: Alternate forms of Brexit and their implications for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States

RAND explored eight plausible post-Brexit trade scenarios involving the UK, EU and U.S. after Brexit. Game theory insights were also used to create a better understanding of how a variety of factors might affect the outcome of Brexit negotiations.

Tool

Potential Economic Effects of Brexit: Implications for the United Kingdom, European Union, and United States

This online calculator lets users explore five plausible post-Brexit trade scenarios involving the UK, EU and U.S. after Brexit and develop a custom scenario by modifying underlying economic assumptions.

Tool

Calculating the Economic Impacts of the Syrian Conflict: Operationalizing the World Bank's Damage and Needs Assessment

RAND has collaborated with The World Bank to develop an online calculator that allows the user to calculate and forecast the costs of the Syrian war.

Report

When the Islamic State Comes to Town: The Economic Impact of Islamic State Governance in Iraq and Syria

This report assesses the impact that Islamic State control and governance have on local economies in Iraq and Syria, offering detailed evidence of electricity shortages, refugee flows, and other changes in economic activity inside the caliphate.

Report

What Factors Cause Individuals to Reject Violent Extremism in Yemen?

Why do some individuals engage in political violence in Yemen, while others do not? Using a unique national survey, we examine the role that social, political, and economic factors play on individual behavior toward violence during Yemen's civil war.

Journal Article

Examining the Food-Energy-Water and Conflict Nexus

This article provides an in-depth review of the interactions between insecurity and conflict within the component sectors of the FEW nexus.

Report

Investing in the Fight: Assessing the Use of the Commander's Emergency Response Program in Afghanistan

This report examines the use of the Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) in Afghanistan. It explores the effectiveness of CERP in supporting tactical operations in Afghanistan during the counterinsurgency-focused 2010--2013 time frame.

Report

Estimating the Value of Overseas Security Commitments

In an era of intensifying debate over U.S. funding and resources, RAND researchers explore whether and to what extent the United States derives economic benefits from its overseas security commitments.

Research Brief

Economic Benefits of U.S. Overseas Security Commitments Could Far Outweigh Costs

Amid intensifying debate over U.S. funding and resources, RAND researchers find that the economic benefits of U.S. overseas security commitments could far exceed the costs.

Tool

Estimating the Value of Overseas Security Commitments: An Interactive Visualization

Researchers estimated that U.S. economic losses from major retrenchments of overseas security commitments would be more than triple any gains. This visualization compares different estimated gains and losses from selected retrenchment levels and selected tax, spending, and trade multipliers.

Draft

Assessing the Stabilizing Effects of Development Programming: A Review of USAID's Evaluation Efforts in Afghanistan

Reviews the methodology and tools developed by the Measuring Impact of Stabilization Initiative to assess the impact of United States Agency for International Development stabilization-focused programming in Afghanistan.

Report

The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation

This report examines what binds and divides the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates -- and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years.

Report

Task Force for Business and Stability Operations: Lessons from Afghanistan

RAND researchers identify lessons from the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations in Afghanistan, which sought to use private-sector strategies to create a sustainable Afghan economy.

Report

The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary: (Arabic translation)

An Arabic translation of a study‘s executive summary estimating the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other trajectories.

Report

The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary: (Hebrew translation)

A Hebrew translation of an executive summary of a study estimating the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other trajectories.

Report

The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

This study estimates the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other possible trajectories that the conflict could take.

Report

The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary

This executive summary shares findings from a study that estimates the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other trajectories.

Tool

Costs of the Conflict Calculator

The RAND Costs of Conflict study estimates the net costs and benefits of five alternative trajectories -- a two-state solution, coordinated unilateral withdrawal, uncoordinated unilateral withdrawal, nonviolent resistance, and violent uprising.

Report

Venture Capital and Strategic Investment for Developing Government Mission Capabilities

Through case studies and economic modeling, this research on government strategic investment will help acquisition managers evaluate strategic investment methods to motivate mission-oriented innovation by private firms.