Daniel Egel

Senior Economist

Off Site Office

Education

Ph.D. in economics, University of California, Berkeley; B.A. in biology, University of Chicago

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Daniel Egel is a senior economist at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research is focused on policymaking in fragile and instability-prone countries, with a focus on development- and stability-focused programming. His work at RAND includes a holistic analysis of America’s irregular warfare capability; assessments of U.S. counterinsurgency and counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria; analyses of the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; economic analyses of Brexit, post-conflict reconstruction in Syria, and the value of U.S. international security commitments; and support to the peace process in Yemen.

Egel served as an embedded analyst with the Combined Forces Special Operations Component Command-Afghanistan and NATO Special Operations Component Command-Afghanistan, the lead researcher for a joint ILO/UNDP/WFP team assessing job creation opportunities for Syrian refugees and the communities hosting them, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of California Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation, a consultant for the Middle East Youth Initiative at the Brookings Institution, and an in-house consultant with the Yemeni Social Fund for Development.

Egel earned his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

Research Focus

Previous Positions

Embedded Analyst, NATO Special Operations Component Command-Afghanistan; Embedded Analyst, Combined Forces Special Operations Component Command-Afghanistan; Consultant, Yemen Social Fund for Development, Sana'a, Yemen; Research Team Lead, United Nations Development Programme, Sub-regional Response Facility for the Syrian Crisis (Jordan); Postdoctoral Scholar, University of California Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation; Consultant, Middle East Youth Initiative, The Brookings Institution; Senior Research Assistant, The Brookings Institution

Recent Projects

Building an Enduring Peace in Yemen
The American Way of Irregular War
Alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Evaluation of the Counter-ISIS Train and Equip Fund
The Middle East Development Initiative

Selected Publications

Daniel Egel, Shira Efron, & Linda Robinson, Peace Dividend Widening the Economic Growth and Development Benefits of the Abraham Accords, RAND (PE-A1149-1), 2021

Charles T. Cleveland & Daniel Egel, The American Way of Irregular War, RAND (PE-A301-1), 2020

Daniel Egel, C. Ross Anthony, Shira Efron, Rita T. Karam, Mary E. Vaiana, & Charles P. Ries, Alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, RAND (RR-A725-1), 2020

Linda Robinson, Daniel Egel, & Ryan Andrew Brown, Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations, RAND (RR-2504), 2019

Charles T. Cleveland, Ryan Crocker, Daniel Egel, Andrew M. Liepman, & David Maxwell, An American Way of Political Warfare : A Proposal, RAND (PE-304), 2018

Daniel Egel, Andrew Parasiliti, Charles P. Ries, & Dori Walker, Estimating the Economic Benefits of Levant Integration, RAND (RR-2375), 2019

Eric Robinson, Daniel Egel, Patrick B. Johnston, Sean Mann, Alexander D. Rothenberg, & David Stebbins, When the Islamic State Comes to Town: The Economic Impact of Islamic State Governance in Iraq and Syria, RAND (RR-1970), 2017

C. Ross Anthony, Daniel Egel, Charles P. Ries, et al., The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, RAND (RR-740-1), 2015

Honors & Awards

Mentorship Award, RAND
Gold Award for Innovation, RAND
Leonard Schaeffer Medal, RAND

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Americans for Peace Now; Israel Policy Forum

Commentary

Unconventional Supply Network Operations: A New Frontier in Global Competition
The technological advances of recent decades that have made supply networks drastically more efficient, valuable, and essential to every element of our daily lives have also created a highly interdependent, largely unsecured portfolio of potential attack surfaces.
Apr 19, 2021 RealClearDefense
Congressional Options to Advance Peace in Yemen
An enduring peace in Yemen will require addressing Yemen's most immediate needs while working to develop its economic, political, and security institutions. U.S. lawmakers have the tools to help shape this effort and could help end the conflict and bring stability to Yemen.
Mar 29, 2021 The Hill
Abraham Accords Offer Historic Opportunity to Spur Mideast Growth
The Abraham Accords have heralded a dramatic shift in the relationship between Israel and the Muslim nations of the world. While these accords represent a major political breakthrough, they also represent a possible new chapter in the region's development: away from conflict and toward a shared economic vision of prosperity.
Mar 25, 2021 United Press International
Pathways Toward Peace in Yemen: National Reconciliation or a 'Phased' Approach?
Any pathway to an enduring peace in Yemen could take decades to recover from the economic, political, and social costs of this civil war. A phased approach could require patience from the Yemeni people and a robust and enduring commitment from the international community. But war has brought Yemen to this point, and there are few remaining options.
Mar 5, 2021 The RAND Blog
Yemen's Chaos Creates a New Opportunity for the Biden-Harris Team
More than one-quarter million Yemenis have been killed in the nation's civil war. And 150,000 children have died from starvation and left Yemen on the brink of collapse. The foundations of peace must be Yemeni-led, but there is much that the new U.S. administration could do to support the process.
Nov 24, 2020 The National Interest
Defense Budget Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic is taking a dramatic toll on the U.S. economy. This could have significant medium-term implications for the U.S. defense budget. The U.S. Department of Defense will need to find efficiencies that are of at least the same magnitude as the recent sequestration.
Apr 7, 2020 RealClearDefense
Economic Consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. National Security
The global COVID-19 pandemic will have a dramatic effect on economies across the globe. But the Middle East may be particularly affected, given the simultaneous fall in oil prices. The economic consequences of this pandemic are also likely to affect U.S. interests in the region.
Apr 1, 2020 The RAND Blog
AI and Irregular Warfare: An Evolution, Not a Revolution
How will artificial intelligence change the way wars are fought? The answer, of course, depends. And it mainly depends on what type of wars are being fought. And how will AI affect the type of wars that the United States is most likely to fight?
Oct 31, 2019 War on the Rocks
Economic Benefits of U.S. Overseas Security Commitments Appear to Outweigh Costs
U.S. policymakers should carefully weigh the potential losses against the potential gains when considering the desirability of large-scale retrenchments of U.S. overseas security commitments.
Sep 23, 2016 The RAND Blog

Publications

Report
Peace Dividend: Widening the Economic Growth and Development Benefits of the Abraham Accords
The Abraham Accords, a major political breakthrough between Israel and the Muslim nations of the world, could also have wide-reaching economic impacts. This Perspective assesses the potential economic benefits of these accords for the region.
Mar 18, 2021
Report
Building an Enduring Peace in Yemen: Lessons from Five Years of RAND Research
Yemen's civil war entered its sixth year in 2021. This report describes the challenges facing efforts to achieve an enduring peace in Yemen and outlines constructive steps the international community can take to achieve an enduring peace.
Feb 22, 2021
Report
Alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
RAND researchers used a novel focus group approach to assess which, if any, of five possible alternative futures in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would be supported by Israelis and Palestinians.
Feb 10, 2021
Report
The American Way of Irregular War: An Analytical Memoir
The United States has failed to achieve strategic objectives in nearly every military campaign since Vietnam. This memoir describes how the United States can begin to build the American way of irregular war needed for success in modern conflict.
Jul 29, 2020
Infographic
Estimating the Economic Benefits of Levant Integration: A Look at the Numbers
This infographic helps users assess values of economic integration in the Levant in a variety of ways.
Feb 24, 2020
Report
Measuring the Effectiveness of Special Operations
How can the success (or failure) of Army special operations missions be assessed? The authors develop a methodology for doing so and illustrate the process through a fictional scenario.
Nov 13, 2019
Report
Estimating the Economic Benefits of Levant Integration
This report describes how a comprehensive free trade agreement among the economies of the Levant could increase the average gross domestic product by 3-7 percent, and reduce regional unemployment rates by 8-18 percent.
Sep 16, 2019
Tool
The Levant Economic Integration Calculator
This online tool allows policymakers and the public to examine how a comprehensive free trade agreement among the countries of the Levant could create significant new economic opportunities, substantially reducing regional unemployment.
Sep 16, 2019
Report
An American Way of Political Warfare: A Proposal
The United States should develop an American political warfare capability to synchronize all elements of national power in contests with and without armed conflict and establish a national political warfare center to mature this capability.
Jul 24, 2018
Journal Article
Examining the Food-Energy-Water and Conflict Nexus
This article provides an in-depth review of the interactions between insecurity and conflict within the component sectors of the FEW nexus.
2017
Report
After Brexit: Alternate forms of Brexit and their implications for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States
RAND explored eight plausible post-Brexit trade scenarios involving the UK, EU and U.S. after Brexit. Game theory insights were also used to create a better understanding of how a variety of factors might affect the outcome of Brexit negotiations.
Dec 11, 2017
Tool
Potential Economic Effects of Brexit: Implications for the United Kingdom, European Union, and United States
This online calculator lets users explore five plausible post-Brexit trade scenarios involving the UK, EU and U.S. after Brexit and develop a custom scenario by modifying underlying economic assumptions.
Dec 11, 2017
Tool
Calculating the Economic Impacts of the Syrian Conflict: Operationalizing the World Bank's Damage and Needs Assessment
RAND has collaborated with The World Bank to develop an online calculator that allows the user to calculate and forecast the costs of the Syrian war.
Oct 18, 2017
Report
When the Islamic State Comes to Town: The Economic Impact of Islamic State Governance in Iraq and Syria
This report assesses the impact that Islamic State control and governance have on local economies in Iraq and Syria, offering detailed evidence of electricity shortages, refugee flows, and other changes in economic activity inside the caliphate.
Sep 13, 2017
Report
What Factors Cause Individuals to Reject Violent Extremism in Yemen?
Why do some individuals engage in political violence in Yemen, while others do not? Using a unique national survey, we examine the role that social, political, and economic factors play on individual behavior toward violence during Yemen's civil war.
May 22, 2017
Report
Investing in the Fight: Assessing the Use of the Commander's Emergency Response Program in Afghanistan
This report examines the use of the Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) in Afghanistan. It explores the effectiveness of CERP in supporting tactical operations in Afghanistan during the counterinsurgency-focused 2010--2013 time frame.
Oct 13, 2016
Report
Estimating the Value of Overseas Security Commitments
In an era of intensifying debate over U.S. funding and resources, RAND researchers explore whether and to what extent the United States derives economic benefits from its overseas security commitments.
Sep 22, 2016
Research Brief
Economic Benefits of U.S. Overseas Security Commitments Could Far Outweigh Costs
Amid intensifying debate over U.S. funding and resources, RAND researchers find that the economic benefits of U.S. overseas security commitments could far exceed the costs.
Sep 22, 2016
Tool
Estimating the Value of Overseas Security Commitments: An Interactive Visualization
Researchers estimated that U.S. economic losses from major retrenchments of overseas security commitments would be more than triple any gains. This visualization compares different estimated gains and losses from selected retrenchment levels and selected tax, spending, and trade multipliers.
Sep 22, 2016
Draft
Assessing the Stabilizing Effects of Development Programming: A Review of USAID's Evaluation Efforts in Afghanistan
Reviews the methodology and tools developed by the Measuring Impact of Stabilization Initiative to assess the impact of United States Agency for International Development stabilization-focused programming in Afghanistan.
Aug 12, 2016
Report
The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation
This report examines what binds and divides the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates -- and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years.
Jul 26, 2016
Report
Task Force for Business and Stability Operations: Lessons from Afghanistan
RAND researchers identify lessons from the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations in Afghanistan, which sought to use private-sector strategies to create a sustainable Afghan economy.
Jan 12, 2016
Report
The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary: (Arabic translation)
An Arabic translation of a study‘s executive summary estimating the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other trajectories.
Nov 23, 2015
Report
The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary: (Hebrew translation)
A Hebrew translation of an executive summary of a study estimating the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other trajectories.
Nov 23, 2015
Report
The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
This study estimates the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other possible trajectories that the conflict could take.
Sep 8, 2015
Report
The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary
This executive summary shares findings from a study that estimates the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other trajectories.
Jun 18, 2015
Tool
Costs of the Conflict Calculator
The RAND Costs of Conflict study estimates the net costs and benefits of five alternative trajectories -- a two-state solution, coordinated unilateral withdrawal, uncoordinated unilateral withdrawal, nonviolent resistance, and violent uprising.
Jun 8, 2015
Report
Venture Capital and Strategic Investment for Developing Government Mission Capabilities
Through case studies and economic modeling, this research on government strategic investment will help acquisition managers evaluate strategic investment methods to motivate mission-oriented innovation by private firms.
Mar 24, 2014