Low-intensity Conflict

  • A soldier engages a target during a convoy live fire exercise at Novo Selo Training Area, Bulgaria, on July 7, 2017

    Report

    What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts? What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?

    Until the wars in Syria and Ukraine, armed conflict in the world had been decreasing for decades. Future projections show continued decline, but the U.S. military has an important role in deterring conflict, underpinning peacekeeping coalitions, and possibly in responding to proxy wars by other powers.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Report

    A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning

    This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service soldiers perform reloading drills with their M-4 rifles during refit training near Baghdad, Iraq, July 13, 2016

    Commentary

    Managing Chaos in an Era of Great Power Competition

    As Washington policymakers seek a new strategic course, U.S. national security strategy should not neglect the importance of competition short of armed conflict. A U.S. strategy that incorporates this perspective from the beginning could manage chaos at a reasonable cost.

    Sep 5, 2017

  • Israeli soldiers training for urban wafare

    Commentary

    Five Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza

    After a decade of operating against Hamas in Gaza, the Israel Defense Force has learned many lessons about urban warfare against hybrid adversaries. The last confrontation teaches five basic lessons that apply well beyond Gaza.

    Aug 3, 2017

  • An Israeli tank drives near the border as it returns to Israel from Gaza, August 3, 2014

    Report

    Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza

    The Israel Defense Force had to evolve to meet an adaptive and determined hybrid adversary during its wars in Gaza. The U.S. Army and the joint force can learn from the IDF's challenge of balancing intense international legal public scrutiny and the hard operational realities of urban warfare.

    Jul 26, 2017

  • A woman holds a placard with a portrait of Russian President Vladimir Putin during a celebration of the third anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea in Simferopol, March 16, 2017

    Report

    Lessons from Russia's Operations in Ukraine

    Russia's annexation of Crimea was a decisive use of military force toward political ends. But Russia benefited from favorable circumstances that make this hard to replicate. Moscow likely considers its campaign in Eastern Ukraine a strategic success but an unsuccessful operation.

    May 9, 2017

  • Estonian soldiers in a military parade celebrate Estonia's Independence Day near the Russian border in Narva, February 24, 2015

    Report

    The Potential for Russian Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics

    Russia would likely have trouble using nonviolent tactics to destabilize the Baltics. Covert violent action is also unlikely to succeed on its own. Thus, the Baltics' main vulnerability is Russia's local superiority in conventional forces.

    Feb 23, 2017

  • Chess pieces in front of an American flag

    Report

    Russia, China, and Iran Use Measures Short of War to Further Strategic Ends Against the U.S.

    The United States will have to address the problems of foreign intervention and threats short of war if it is to prevent further erosion of its global influence by its competitors. Policymakers and the military services should consider ways to better identify, forestall, and counteract the use of measures short of war against U.S. and allied interests.

    May 31, 2016

  • News Release

    Russia, China and Iran Use Measures Short of War to Further Strategic Ends Against the U.S.

    The United States will have to address the problems of foreign intervention and threats short of war if it is to prevent further erosion of its global influence by its competitors.

    May 31, 2016

  • Joint naval special warfare training at Stennis Space Center

    Report

    What Are the Advantages and Risks of Special Warfare?

    Special warfare provides policymakers with an additional option that can help secure U.S. interests and manage risks. It can stabilize a friendly state or destabilize a hostile regime by operating through and with local state or non-state partners, rather than through unilateral U.S. action.

    Feb 23, 2016

  • U.S. Special Forces soldiers prepare to leave Haji Aslam village in Khakarez district, Kandahar province, Afghanistan, March 24, 2014

    Report

    A Counterinsurgency Win in Afghanistan?

    The 2015 counterinsurgency (COIN) effort in Afghanistan ranks among the low end of historical COIN winners. The Afghan government and security forces are capable of maintaining the current stalemate with the Taliban. This is the first step on the most promising path to peace: a negotiated settlement.

    Feb 4, 2016

  • Merged Israeli and Palestinian flags

    Report

    The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary: (Arabic translation)

    An Arabic translation of a study‘s executive summary estimating the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other trajectories.

    Nov 23, 2015

  • Report

    The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary: (Hebrew translation)

    A Hebrew translation of an executive summary of a study estimating the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other trajectories.

    Nov 23, 2015

  • Journal Article

    Conditional Cash Transfers, Civil Conflict and Insurgent Influence: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines

    This study estimates the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level.

    Nov 18, 2015

  • The costs of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

    Report

    The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

    What are the net costs and benefits to Israelis and Palestinians if the current impasse endures over the next ten years, relative to several alternative trajectories that the conflict could take?

    Sep 8, 2015

  • What are the costs of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

    Essay

    The Price of Peace

    Groundbreaking analysis by a team of RAND economists and policy experts reveals how much Israelis and Palestinians stand to lose from the enduring conflict, and how much they could gain in peace.

    Jun 24, 2015

  • An illustration of the Israeli and Palestinian flags

    Report

    The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Executive Summary

    For much of the past century, the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians has been a defining feature of the Middle East. Depending on its trajectory, what are the conflict's net costs and benefits to both parties over the next ten years?

    Jun 18, 2015

  • Multimedia

    RAND Experts Discuss the Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Study

    RAND experts discuss their recent study, The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Media relations director Jeffrey Hiday moderated the call.

    Jun 18, 2015

  • Costs of Conflict U.S. launch at the Wilson Center, June 15, 2015

    Multimedia

    Press Conference at the Wilson Center: Calculating the Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

    At the U.S. launch of The Costs of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Study held at the Wilson Center on June 15, 2015, RAND senior researchers Charles P. Ries and C. Ross Anthony discussed the economic and non-economic factors surrounding the conflict and the long-term implications for Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, and the international community.

    Jun 15, 2015

  • Palestinian girls at their family's house in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, March 10, 2015

    Commentary

    War or Peace? Putting a Price on the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse

    Today, more than 90 percent of Israelis and Palestinians were born after 1948 and have known nothing other than some version of the impasse. Both sides could be better off with a stable two-state solution. Prolonging the impasse for another generation would have real costs.

    Jun 9, 2015