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Low-Intensity Conflict

Journal Article
Reflecting on One Year of War: The Role of Non-Military Levers
One year after Russia's illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this article examines the role of non-military levers (e.g., diplomatic, information, economic) in the conflict so far.
Mar 28, 2023
Blog
Opioids in America, Silicon Valley Bank, Semiconductors: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on addressing America's illicit opioids problem, Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance, and more.
Mar 17, 2023
Report
Quantifying the link between COVID-19, conflict risk, and the global economy
Our research suggests that COVID-19 will significantly increase the risk of civil conflict in African countries. We estimate this effect will, in turn, have negative global repercussions via international trade losses.
Mar 3, 2023
Report
Authorities and Permissions to Conduct Army Special Operations Activities Abroad
This report outlines the basic types of authorities that govern the use of Army Special Operations Forces overseas in environments below the threshold of armed conflict.
Dec 12, 2022
Blog
Civic Education, Twitter's Bot Problem, Police Reform: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses civic and citizenship education in America, addressing Twitter’s bot problem, why community engagement is key to police reform, and more.
Sep 30, 2022
Report
Russian Coercive Signaling Toward the West
In recent years, Russia has consistently engaged in signaling activities—military actions far short of direct aggression but often creating escalatory risks—toward the United States and its allies. Understanding what drives this behavior can help U.S. efforts to interpret future events.
Sep 29, 2022
Report
Hypothetical Scenarios of U.S.-China Conflict
The prospect of China overtaking the United States to attain global primacy appears unlikely, but it is not impossible. An analysis of two conflict scenarios—one low-intensity and one high-intensity—illuminates how a U.S.-China war of power transition might unfold.
Aug 10, 2022
Commentary
Has the War in Ukraine Damaged Russia's Gray Zone Capabilities?
Russia's actions are to blame for the damage done to its gray zone capabilities, but it's the West's choice to see whether this respite represents a short-term aberration or presents opportunities for some long-term fixes.
Jun 22, 2022
Blog
Helping Ukrainian Refugees, Truth Decay, Algorithmic Inequity: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how to help Ukrainian refugees, the link between cognitive processes and Truth Decay, tracking wastewater to understand the spread of COVID-19, and more.
Apr 1, 2022
Research Brief
How and Why China Uses Gray Zone Tactics
China uses a variety of gray zone tactics—coercive actions that are shy of armed conflict but beyond normal diplomatic and economic activities—to advance its objectives, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Which tactics should the United States prioritize countering?
Mar 30, 2022
Report
Great Power Rivalry in a Changing International Order
U.S. national security policy for the foreseeable future will be oriented around competition with China and Russia. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has intensified this rivalry and will likely have profound echo effects through the parallel U.S.-China rivalry and the international system.
Mar 30, 2022
Report
Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China's Coercion Against U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific
This report examines how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Mar 30, 2022
Report
Analysis of Russian Irregular Threats
The authors of this report describe strategic global trends related to Russian global influence and behavior and provide an overview and assessment of hostile activities that Russia has undertaken in the face of these trends.
Nov 8, 2021
Report
Countering Russia: The Role of Special Operations Forces in Strategic Competition
This report establishes a strategic framework for U.S. Army special operations forces support to countering Russian activities in the competition space.
Nov 8, 2021
Commentary
The Signal and the Noise: Understanding China's Military Threats
Although China's capabilities and communication channels have changed, its fundamental approach to military deterrence signaling as a form of political coercion has not. As Australia-China relations enter a new, more confrontational era, Canberra is likely to be an increasingly frequent target of Chinese deterrence signaling.
Jun 29, 2021
Report
Securing Gains in Fragile States: Using U.S. Leverage in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Beyond
This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.
Jun 15, 2021
Report
Using U.S. Leverage to Limit Instability in Fragile States
The United States can effectively support governance reforms in postconflict states by seizing on opportunities when partner interests align with U.S. interests. And it can use its leverage, including conditions on military and economic assistance, when interests do not align.
Jun 15, 2021
Blog
Summit a Chance to Clarify U.S.-Russia Relations
RAND experts discuss possible topics of conversation and potential takeaways from the upcoming summit between the United States and Russia. The summit will be a chance to rebuild and review the countries' fraught relationship.
Jun 10, 2021
Multimedia
RAND Experts Discuss the Biden-Putin Summit
In this Call with the Experts podcast, Jeffrey Hiday, director of Media Relations at RAND, is joined by RAND experts Samuel Charap, Todd Helmus, Dara Massicot, and William Courtney. Together they discuss the June 16th summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This call was recorded on June 10, 2021.
Jun 10, 2021
Report
Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era
China is changing its approach to deterrence signalling in Xi Jinping's 'new era' as it leverages growing military capabilities and the availability of new communication channels. How can Australia, the United States, and other countries better decipher Chinese deterrence signalling in this new era?
May 27, 2021

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RAND Topic:
Low-Intensity Conflict

Researcher Spotlight

James A. Schear

Adjunct Senior Political Scientist

James (Jim) A. Schear is an adjunct senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Early in his career, he worked at the United Nations, supporting implementation of the 1991 Gulf War cease-fire resolutions and, shortly thereafter, as an advisor to UN missions in Cambodia and former…
Raphael S. Cohen

Director, Strategy and Doctrine Program, RAND Project AIR FORCE

Raphael "Rafi" Cohen is the director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He works on a broad range of defense and foreign policy issues, including defense strategy and force planning, Middle East and European…

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