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Low-Intensity Conflict

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Report
Disrupting the Chinese Military in Competition and Low-Intensity Conflict
There are certain tasks required for China's military to execute key competition and low-intensity conflict missions. Those tasks have potential vulnerabilities that the United States could leverage to disrupt China's strategic goals and constrain its ability to harm U.S. interests.
Dec 5, 2023
Research Brief
What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command
Climate change will hit the Middle East and Central Asia especially hard, with effects on both personal well-being and regional stability. It will likely create increased demand for stabilization operations, non-combatant evacuation operations, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
Nov 29, 2023

Explore Low-Intensity Conflict

Report
Strategic Disruption by Special Operations Forces: A Concept for Proactive Campaigning Short of Traditional War
RAND researchers develop a new concept for strategic disruption by special operations forces, exploring how disruptive campaigns can frustrate an adversary’s preferred strategy and enable friendly gains across multiple instruments of national power.
Dec 5, 2023
Report
Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central Command
This report examines how U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) planners could use operations, activities, and investments in the coming decades to address security threats related to stressors from climate change in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command: Incorporating Climate Change
This report presents an analysis of the impact of climate change on the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
Pathways from Climate Change to Conflict in U.S. Central Command
This report presents an analysis of the pathways from climate change to conflict and how that relationship is unfolding in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
Provision of an indicative, non-exhaustive list of Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas (CAHRAs) under Regulation 2017/821: Updated methodology
This report presents the methodology employed by RAND Europe to produce an indicative, non-exhaustive, regularly updated list of conflict-affected and high-risk areas (CAHRAs) under Regulation (EU) 2017/821.
Sep 29, 2023
Report
Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia: Patterns and Drivers
The authors combined quantitative and qualitative modes of analysis to better understand and anticipate flashpoints with Russia.
Sep 25, 2023
Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Africa
This report explores the potential for competition and conflict among the United States, China, and Russia in Africa; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States.
Jul 13, 2023
Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Latin America
This report explores the potential for competition and conflict among the United States, China, and Russia in Latin America; where competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States.
Jun 20, 2023
Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East
This report explores the potential for competition among the United States, China, and Russia in the Middle East; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States.
Jun 1, 2023
Commentary
Maximizing the Potential of American Irregular Warfare in Strategic Competition
It is time that the United States develop the concepts and associated doctrine, commands, field operating agencies, and personnel to maximize the potential of American irregular warfare in strategic competition.
Apr 3, 2023
Journal Article
Reflecting on One Year of War: The Role of Non-Military Levers
One year after Russia's illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this article examines the role of non-military levers (e.g., diplomatic, information, economic) in the conflict so far.
Mar 28, 2023
Blog
Opioids in America, Silicon Valley Bank, Semiconductors: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on addressing America's illicit opioids problem, Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance, and more.
Mar 17, 2023
Report
Quantifying the link between COVID-19, conflict risk, and the global economy
Our research suggests that COVID-19 will significantly increase the risk of civil conflict in African countries. We estimate this effect will, in turn, have negative global repercussions via international trade losses.
Mar 3, 2023
Report
Authorities and Permissions to Conduct Army Special Operations Activities Abroad
This report outlines the basic types of authorities that govern the use of Army Special Operations Forces overseas in environments below the threshold of armed conflict.
Dec 12, 2022
Blog
Civic Education, Twitter's Bot Problem, Police Reform: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses civic and citizenship education in America, addressing Twitter’s bot problem, why community engagement is key to police reform, and more.
Sep 30, 2022
Report
Russian Coercive Signaling Toward the West
In recent years, Russia has consistently engaged in signaling activities—military actions far short of direct aggression but often creating escalatory risks—toward the United States and its allies. Understanding what drives this behavior can help U.S. efforts to interpret future events.
Sep 29, 2022
Report
Hypothetical Scenarios of U.S.-China Conflict
The prospect of China overtaking the United States to attain global primacy appears unlikely, but it is not impossible. An analysis of two conflict scenarios—one low-intensity and one high-intensity—illuminates how a U.S.-China war of power transition might unfold.
Aug 10, 2022
Commentary
Has the War in Ukraine Damaged Russia's Gray Zone Capabilities?
Russia's actions are to blame for the damage done to its gray zone capabilities, but it's the West's choice to see whether this respite represents a short-term aberration or presents opportunities for some long-term fixes.
Jun 22, 2022

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RAND Topic:
Low-Intensity Conflict

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Katya Migacheva

Social Scientist

Katya Migacheva (she/her) is a social scientist at the RAND Corporation. She has a passion for connecting social science and application and bringing research to inform the urgent challenges of today. Migacheva has conducted work both within the United States and internationally and applied her…
Lisa Saum-Manning

Associate Director, International Security and Defense Policy Program

Lisa Saum-Manning is an associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Program within the RAND National Security Research Division and a professor of policy analysis at Pardee RAND Graduate School. She recently served as a senior advisor to the Assistant Secretary of State…

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