Erik E. Mueller

The Russo-Ukrainian War Has Bolstered Ukraine's Nonstate Alliance Network

Since 2014, militant groups from Russia, Belarus, Chechnya, and elsewhere have established themselves as allies of Ukraine in its fight against Russia and its aligned forces. Though alignment with these groups presents clear benefits in the near term, Kyiv should be cautious since these groups could turn on Ukraine at any time should their interests no longer align.

Ukraine Is a Breeding Ground for Russian PMCs

Moscow's desire for additional fighters in Ukraine has created a breeding ground for Russian private military company (PMC) development. This explosion of what are essentially private armies is not only shaping the battlefield in Ukraine; it could have devastating impacts long after this conflict ends.

Afghan Refugees Are Being Recruited to Join an Iranian Paramilitary

As Western policymakers consider how to deal with Afghan evacuees, including former members of the Afghan security forces, they might consider how to prevent adversaries such as Iran from recruiting Afghan refugees for dangerous and destabilizing operations. Greater attention to these risks may become increasingly important as refugee flows from Afghanistan continue.

Report

Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central Command

This report examines how U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) planners could use operations, activities, and investments in the coming decades to address security threats related to stressors from climate change in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

Research Brief

Planning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command

As climate change increasingly disrupts human and natural systems, this report presents analysis and characterizes how climate hazards could affect the physical and security environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility.

Report

Countering Violent Nonstate Actor Financing: Revenue Sources, Financing Strategies, and Tools of Disruption

Disrupting the financing that violent nonstate actors require is critical for degrading such groups. This report examines the methods used to disrupt this financing and how the Army can contribute to the effort.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations

This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends

The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications

The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.

Report

In the Wreckage of ISIS: An Examination of Challenges Confronting Detained and Displaced Populations in Northeastern Syria

The authors examine the humanitarian and security conditions in two Syrian camps for internally displaced persons: al-Hol and Roj. They address concerns about radicalization and highlight challenges in returning displaced residents to their homes.

Report

Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements

This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The authors apply the framework to hypothetical posture enhancements to offer insights.

Report

Understanding and Reducing the Ability of Violent Nonstate Actors to Adapt to Change

This report summarizes research into how violent nonstate actors adapt to changes in their operational environments and provides recommendations on how the Army might anticipate such adaptations and mitigate them before they occur.

Tool

Mass Attacks Defense Toolkit

RAND researchers created this tool to advance efforts to prevent and reduce intentional, interpersonal firearm violence and public mass attacks in the United States.

Commentary

The Online Extremist Ecosystem: Its Evolution and a Framework for Separating Extreme from Mainstream

The authors describe white supremacists' and other extremists' use of the internet and introduce a framework for internet users to categorize virtual platforms and understand their potential to encounter extreme content online.

Report

An Analysis of Alternative Approaches to Measuring Multinational Interoperability: Early Development of the Army Interoperability Measurement System (AIMS)

Researchers conducted an analysis of alternatives of interoperability measurement systems to support the U.S. Army in achieving interoperability with partners. Researchers identified a new approach, the Army Interoperability Measurement System.

Report

A Review of U.S. Army Non-Materiel Capability-Development Processes

This report analyzes non-materiel DOTLPF-P (doctrine, organization, training, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, policy) processes to help identify issues and changes to improve how the Army implements non-materiel solutions.